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Prepared for the |
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American Highway Users Alliance |
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Seminar on |
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Policies and Politics of User Fees |
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A. E.
Pisarski | |
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A secure nation with a secure transportation
system |
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Serving “high value” people and “high value”
goods |
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Pursuing the “democratization of
mobility” |
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We cannot meet these challenges with a backlog of
transportation investments undone |
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In the 2001 C&P report, FHWA reported
a backlog as of 2000 of: |
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$271 billion of investment needed in
highways |
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$55 billion in highway bridges |
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AASHTO’s work shows the backlog will have
grown much higher by 2004 |
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The backlog represent immense
opportunities lost, lives not saved, other benefits
foregone. |
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Sustain an asset worth $1.5 Trillion. |
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a 16% rate of return on investment |
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Provided 15% of national productivity growth in the
last half of 20th century. |
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38,000 jobs/billion$ |
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Stimulates private investment |
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Difficult period – Economy, Conflicts,
etc. |
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Multiple transportation legislative
issues |
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Aviation |
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Amtrak |
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Rail freight |
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Maritime |
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Possible temporizing
actions |
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Not close to increase in last cycle (40%) |
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Needs put at much greater than funding (maintain
18%-improve 65%) backlog $275-325b) |
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Fed Gas tax at 18.4¢ doesn’t = 3¢ in
1956 |
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Fed share of capital under 40 % |
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Some opportunities regarding revenues |
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Study new fuel effects |
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Greater emphasis on “Innovative
Finance.” |
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“INNOVATIVE FINANCE |
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AIN’T
MONEY” | |
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Transportation Finance
Corporation |
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Accelerated Spending |
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New Money? |
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Toll Roads |
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HOV/HOT lanes - Premium service lanes |
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Pricing |
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Non fuel-based
funding | |
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PROS |
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Build sooner |
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Private role |
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User options |
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Better service |
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CONS |
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Paying twice? |
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Collection |
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Dedication/Diversion |
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Setting the
price |
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Yes, I took Economics 101! |
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This ain’t a marketplace! |
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What is the goal? |
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Who is in charge of the
price? |
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The private sector? Amen – others – ? |
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Public-private partnerships look very
public |
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What are the signals for new
capacity? |
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Are the pricers a new member of the
“Constituency for
Congestion”? | |
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That sets the upper limit on fuel
fees. |
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Without dedication there is no upper limit on
federal gas tax (see Europe). |
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Feds very efficient tax collector |
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Continued diversion ends support for new
fees. |
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Let the gas tax
dwindle? | |
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The “Post-Gas Tax Era” is not yet |
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We must prepare for it but defend what we
have |
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$1.8 billion per penny still has the power to
attracts sharks |
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Alan E. Pisarski |
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PISARSKI@ALANPISARSKI.C0M |
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703 941-4257 | |
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SOME TIME DURING T-3 |
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The nation will reach: |
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300 Million Pop |
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3 Trillion Vehicle Miles of Travel |
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A MILLION VMT PER SQUARE MI.! |
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A common marketplace of 300 million over 3 million
square miles (3.7 with Alaska/Hawaii) |
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A common labor market of 140 million jobs over the
same area |
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A common language and culture |
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2/3 of our households are home-owners |
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Access to All World Markets |
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A transportation system that ties it all
together |
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CONTEXT |
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Difficult times |
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Other transportation issues |
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Needs still exceed resources |
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Delay? |
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FINANCE |
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Not close to 40% |
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Require Study |
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Some revenue options |
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Emphasis on “Innovative
finance” | |
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OPTION |
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Travel Growth |
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2.5¢ Gasohol to HTF |
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5.3 ¢ Gasohol Increase |
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reduce HTF reserves |
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Regain HTF interest |
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Indexing fuel rates |
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ALL |
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1¢ increase |
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REVENUE/6 YEARS |
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$17.6b |
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$4.1b |
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$8b |
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$4.4b |
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$2.6b |
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$15.2b |
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$51.9B |
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$9.4b |
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Our legacy from the last generation is wearing
thin |
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What will we do to prepare for the next generation
? |
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1980-1990 22 million new drivers added 40 seconds
to work travel time: 22.5 min. |
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1990-2000 13 million new drivers and added 3
minutes: 25.5 min. |
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Notes