Copyright 2000 / Los Angeles Times
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August 15, 2000, Tuesday, Home Edition
SECTION: Part A; Part 1; Page 1; National Desk
LENGTH: 3036 words
HEADLINE:
CAMPAIGN 2000;
TIMES POLL;
GORE STILL LAGS ON LEADERSHIP
ISSUE
BYLINE: RONALD BROWNSTEIN, TIMES POLITICAL
WRITER
BODY:
Despite growing public
optimism about the nation's direction, Al Gore heads toward the Democratic
National Convention burdened by voter doubts about his leadership and widespread
skepticism that he deserves credit for the strong economy, a new Times Poll has
found.
The poll suggests that, at this point in the campaign, personal
doubts about both Gore and President Clinton are outweighing the traditional
tendency of voters to reward the party in the White House for good times. Only
half of voters who believe the country is on the right track now say they will
vote for Gore--a much smaller percentage of satisfied voters than usually
supports the party holding the White House.
In all, the poll found
Republican nominee George W. Bush leading Gore by 48% to 39%, with Green Party
nominee Ralph Nader (at 3%) and Reform Party contender Pat Buchanan (at 2%)
attracting minimal support. Bush's lead nearly doubles the five-point advantage
he held in a Times Poll just before the GOP convention earlier this month.
The survey highlights the complex challenges facing Gore at the
Democratic convention this week. At once, Gore must find a way to improve his
personal image (which is less favorable than Bush's, the poll found), unify
Democrats (who are now supporting him at a lower rate than Republicans are
backing Bush), and reach out to independents (who now prefer Bush by a
double-digit margin). Perhaps above all, Gore must find a solution to this
year's paradox of prosperity: the willingness of many Americans content with the
country's direction to vote for change by supporting Bush.
The Times
Poll, supervised by poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,227 registered voters
from Friday through Sunday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus
three percentage points. The survey also asked a series of questions that
attempted to determine which voters were most likely to turn out in November; in
that smaller group of "likely" voters, Bush's lead expanded slightly to 52% to
40%, with Nader (at 2%) and Buchanan (at 1%) almost vanishing.
Bush's
strong showing may at least partially reflect the continued benefit of the
"bounce" he received at the Republican Convention in Philadelphia this month. As
that effect recedes, Gore is hoping to gain substantial ground this week with
the traditional bounce from his convention.
Voters expressed a generally
positive response to Gore's selection of moderate Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of
Connecticut as his running mate, though the choice didn't yet seem to be
changing the dynamics of the election. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed
thought Lieberman was qualified to serve as president and about half said they
had a favorable impression of him; both numbers were comparable to those that
voters expressed about Dick Cheney after Bush selected him as his running mate
last month.
But only 15% of those polled said Lieberman's selection made
them more likely to support Gore; nearly 8 in 10 said the choice would have no
effect. Lieberman's religion--he is the first Jewish candidate chosen for a
national ticket--seemed a nonissue to most respondents: Nearly 8 in 10 said the
country was ready for a Jewish vice president.
Bush Holding the Center
Better
Democrats point out that at the Republican convention in 1988,
Bush's father, former President George Bush, faced--and met--many of the same
challenges confronting Gore. After trailing his rival for most of that campaign
year, the elder Bush used his convention to resolve doubts about his leadership
and surge into a lead over Democrat Michael S. Dukakis that he never
relinquished.
But even with that precedent, the breadth of the
difficulties facing Gore on convention eve are still formidable, the poll found.
Most fundamental, Gore is facing an erosion of the electoral coalition
that Clinton built in his two victories. Following the pattern in most surveys
this year, the new poll shows Bush demonstrating broad-based appeal. At this
point, the Texas governor is holding the center, even as he consolidates the
Republican base to an extraordinary degree and cuts into Gore's strength among
groups that usually lean Democratic.
Those advantages are evident from
several different angles. At the most basic level, Bush has done a much better
job of unifying his base than Gore: In the survey, an almost unprecedented 95%
of Republicans say they are backing Bush. Just 78% of Democrats now say they
will vote for Gore. Bush is attracting 18% of Democratic men--and more than
one-fourth of white Democratic men.
Bush also holds a 16
percentage-point lead among independents. He holds a large lead among
independents who consider themselves conservative, and is holding Gore to a
relatively modest 11 percentage-point advantage among independents who consider
themselves liberal or moderate.
Those numbers highlight a central
dynamic in the survey: Bush is consistently running better among groups that
ordinarily lean Republican (like conservative independents) than Gore is among
groups that more typically lean Democratic (like moderate independents).
Bush, for instance, leads Gore by 52% to 37% among men overall--and by
fully 2 to 1 among white men. But Gore has been unable to offset that advantage
by posting the lead among women that Clinton enjoyed in his two races. The
survey finds Bush leading among female voters by 44% to 41%.
When voters
are viewed by income, the same disparity occurs. Bush leads by 20 percentage
points among voters earning $ 60,000 a year or more--but Gore only manages a
five-point advantage among those earning $ 20,000 a year or less.
Most
ominously for Gore, Bush continues to display considerable strength among union
members. Bush is drawing 33% of union members, compared to just 53% for Gore.
Clinton carried union members by a 33-point plurality in 1996, according to The
Times exit poll.
The second set of challenges for Gore that the poll
pinpoints are personal. In the broadest measure, voters are less likely to
express favorable opinions about Gore than they are about Bush. Fifty-four
percent of those surveyed say they view Gore favorably, while 40% view him
unfavorably; for Bush, the comparable numbers are 59% and 33%.
Gore
holds a clear lead on two variables: by 56% to 31% voters say he has "the best
experience for the job." And a 13 percentage-point plurality believes Gore has a
better grasp of the issues than Bush.
'Likable' Factor a Big Plus for
Bush
But voters prefer Bush on three other central measures. Bush leads
by six percentage points among voters overall (and twice that among
independents) when voters are asked which man has the honesty and integrity to
serve as president; Bush leads by 17 percentage points when voters were asked
which candidate was most likable; and Bush leads by 13 points on the question of
which candidate displays stronger qualities of leadership. The perception of
Bush as a stronger leader has been one of the most consistent--and
consequential--dynamics of the election all More promising for Gore is the issue
debate that Democrats hope to sharpen at the convention this week. The survey
finds little public support for shifting away from the direction that President
Clinton has established. Just 1 in 5 voters say the next president should change
a lot of Clinton's policies; about one-third say "only a few" policies should be
changed; and a plurality of nearly 40% say the next president should continue
Clinton's policies.
In another question, fully 58% of voters said they
like Clinton's policies--almost exactly the same percentage (59%) that said they
dislike Clinton personally.
On two central policy disputes voters side
strongly with Gore as well. By a resounding 5 to 1, voters say the federal
budget surplus should be used primarily to pay down the national debt and
stabilize Social Security and Medicare (as Gore is urging) rather than primarily
for a large tax cut, as Bush has proposed. And when read a description of the
two rivals' competing plans to reform Social Security, 55% say they prefer
Gore's approach; just 32% like Bush's.
Yet, perhaps in a reflection of
the broader doubts about Gore's strength and leadership, the vice president
doesn't match those advantages when voters are asked which candidate can best
handle a series of issues.
Difficulty in Gaining Credit
Voters
gave Gore a double-digit advantage over Bush on only one issue: health care.
Likewise, Bush held a significant advantage solely on national defense--where
voters preferred him over Gore by nearly 3 to 1.
The two men essentially
battled to a draw on four other issues: abortion, gun control, Supreme Court
appointments and, most strikingly, education. (Bush actually holds a
statistically insignificant 42% to 40% lead on education, an issue that usually
favors Democrats.)
The good news for Gore is that he leads Bush on two
other critical issues: strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and keeping
the economy prosperous. The bad news is that Gore's leads on these questions are
modest.
Gore's slim lead on sustaining prosperity reflects his
difficulty in gaining credit for the strong economy. There's little dispute that
the economy is humming: Fully 89% of voters say it's doing well. But that
appreciation hasn't trickled down to Gore. A plurality (49%) now say Gore
deserves no credit for the good times; just 9% say he deserves a lot. Another
34% say he deserves some credit.
That assessment may help explain why
Gore continues to struggle despite a rising tide of optimism about the country's
direction. In the survey, 56% of voters say the country is moving in the right
direction, while only 36% say it's off on the wrong track. That finding
continues a steady rise in optimism in Times polls since last spring.
But that updraft isn't helping Gore as much as it should because he's
failing to attract as many satisfied voters as the incumbent party usually does.
Typically, the party holding the White House can expect to win as much as
three-quarters of voters who say the country is on the right track; in this
poll, those contented voters give Gore only a 51% to 37% lead over Bush.
While Gore struggles to grasp onto the most positive elements of
Clinton's legacy, the strong economy and general sense of contentment with the
country's direction he continues to bear the weight of the negative assessments.
When those who have an unfavorable view of Gore were asked why, far more named
Clinton than any other factor.
Health Care
Democrats
will showcase health care issues at tonight's convention. Panelists in a forum
called "American Dialogues" will share their experiences and expertise on issues
including AIDS and mental health. Here are the presidential candidates'
positions on the issue.
*
DEMOCRATS
Mental
Health
Vice President Al Gore supports expanding access to mental health
benefits. A major goal is to assure affordable mental health coverage for
children so that mental illness is covered in the same way physical illnesses
are covered.
Gore would expand the availability of community mental
health services while requiring accountability. He also would provide more
mental health services to under-served groups such as homeless veterans, and
create return-to-work programs for the mentally ill.
Gore wants to train
teachers and general health professionals to help spot symptoms of mental
illness and strengthen medical privacy rules to protect against discrimination.
*
AIDS
Gore supports continued investment in
research, prevention, care, treatment and finding a vaccine and cure for AIDS.
He supports the Ryan White CARE Act, which provides federal
assistance to state and local jurisdictions most heavily affected by HIV. He
also supports the Housing Opportunities for People with AIDS program and
incentives to return those with HIV/AIDS to work.
Gore seeks to protect
persons with HIV/AIDS
from discrimination and agrees with a
Supreme Court decision that the
Americans With Disabilities Act
covers people with asymptomatic HIV.
REPUBLICANS
Mental
Health
While the George W. Bush campaign has not formulated specific
positions on AIDs and mental health, his advisors pointed to his record as
governor of Texas, where he signed a 1997 law mandating health insurance plans
that offers 45 inpatient days and 60 outpatient visits for serious mental
illnesses. During his tenure, funds were appropriated for a new generation of
medicines for people with bipolar illnesses and schizophrenia.
Bush
supports the Americans With Disabilities Act and has supported job training,
supportive housing and other health services for the mentally ill.
*
AIDS
The governor supports pharmaceutical
companies' research and development of AIDS drugs. As part of that support, he
proposes a permanent tax credit for research and development.
Bush would
double funding of the National Institutes of Health and supports the NIH AIDS
research programs and the Ryan White CARE Act.
Sources:
Times research; Candidates' campaigns
Researched by NONA YATES/Los
Angeles Times
Gore vs. Bush
Presidential matchup
*
Among all registered voters:
George W. Bush:
48%
Al Gore: 39%
Pat Buchanan: 2%
Ralph Nader: 3%
Don't know: 8%
*
Among likely voters:
George W. Bush: 52%
Al Gore: 40%
Pat Buchanan: 1%
Ralph Nader: 2%
Don't know: 5%
*
Does Al
Gore's selection of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman to be his vice presidential running
mate make you more or less likely to vote for Gore or does it have no effect on
your vote?
All
registered voters Democrats Republicans
Much
more
likely 6% 7% 4%
Somewhat more
likely 9% 8% 7%
Somewhat less
likely 3% 1% 1%
Much less
likely 3% 1% 2%
No
effect 78% 81% 86%
Don't
know 1% 2% 0%
*
Regardless of whether Lieberman's
religion would affect your own vote, do you think his selection as Gore's vice
presidential running mate will help Gore's chances of winning, hurt his chances
of winning or have no effect on the presidential race?
Help: 36%
Hurt: 11%
No effect: 38%
Don't know: 15%
*
Do you think that Lieberman is qualified to step in
and become the president of the United States, or not?
Qualified: 58%
Not qualified:9%
Don't know: 33%
*
Do
you think that this country is ready to have someone Jewish serve as vice
president, or not?
Ready: 78%
Not ready: 8%
Don't know:
14%
*
Do you think that anti-Semitism in the United
States is currently a very serious problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a
problem or not a problem at all?
Serious problem: 17%
Somewhat
of a problem: 46%
Not much of a problem: 22%
Not a problem at
all: 6%
Don't know: 9%
*
What is your impression
of
Joseph
I. Lieberman Dick Cheney Al Gore
George W.
Bush
Favorable 50% 52% 54%
59%
Unfavorable 8 16 40
33
Haven't heard enough to
say 38 29 4
5
Don't
know 4 3 2
3
*
Top 3 reasons given by voters who have
a favorable impression of Al Gore: (accepted up to two answers)
Experience: 21%
He's a good Democrat: 15
His stand on
issues: 13
*
Top 3 reasons given by voters who have an
unfavorable impression of Al Gore: (accepted up to two answers)
Clinton
association: 29%
Not trustworthy: 18
Flip-flops on issues: 13
*
Top 3 reasons given by voters who have a favorable
impression of George W. Bush: (accepted up to two answers)
His record in
Texas: 14%
His stand on issues: 14
Trustworthy: 13
*
Top 3 reasons given by voters who have an unfavorable
impression of George W. Bush: (accepted up to two answers)
His stand on
issues: 13%
Not trustworthy: 11
His father's legacy: 11
*
What issue or problem is most important for the next
president to address?(accepted up to two answers) (top 3 responses shown):
Education: 25%
Social Security: 19
Health care: 16
*
At the Republican convention, there was talk of a new
Republican Party, one that welcomes people of all races, colors and beliefs. Do
you believe that the Republican Party has changed and that there is a new more
inclusive Republican Party, or do you think the talk at the convention was just
politics as usual, with the candidates trying to get elected?
New
inclusive party: 27%
Politics as usual: 63
Don't know: 10
*
Notes: All results shown are among registered voters,
unless otherwise indicated.
"-" indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may
not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or not all answer
categories are shown.
*
Times Poll results are also
available at http://www.latimes.com/timespoll.
*
HOW THE
POLL WAS CONDUCTED
The Times Poll contacted 1,227 registered voters
nationwide, including 728 voters most likely to vote, by telephone Aug. 11--13,
2000. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation.
Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers
could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with
census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling
error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely
voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat
higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question
wording and the order in which questions are presented.
Gore vs. Bush,
*
MORE POLITICAL COVERAGE
WHAT CROWDS?
It might be a madhouse near Staples Center, but parts of downtown L.A.
are virtually devoid of activity. U1
R-E-S-P-E-C-T--Columnist Bill
Plaschke says Staples Center squatters should realize they are on sacred ground.
U6
SHADOW ON THE BOOM--What's our prosperity for? It's the great moral
question of the day. B9
MINIMAL TO THE MAX--Why is CBS devoting more
time this week to "Big Brother" than the Democratic convention? Follow the
money. F1
GRAPHIC: PHOTO: Juan Carlos Hernandez, 8,
sings the national anthem as the Democratic National Convention opens.
PHOTOGRAPHER: KIRK MC KOY / Los Angeles Times PHOTO: (no caption) GRAPHIC: Gore
vs. Bush / Los Angeles Times
LOAD-DATE: August 15, 2000
