Number Of Uninsured Americans In 2009 Could Exceed 48 Million

Dec 14, 2000

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: Richard Coorsh

December 14, 2000

(202) 824-1787

e-mail: mailto:rcoorsh@hiaa.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. –The number of uninsured Americans could exceed 48 million by 2009, according to a new study released today by the Health Insurance Association of America (HIAA).

The study also indicates that if the country enters into a recession, the number of uninsured Americans in 2009 could exceed 61 million.

"The survey shows that in this ‘as good as it gets’ economy, employers are contributing mightily to coverage for their employees," noted HIAA President Chip Kahn. "However, despite recent progress, there are still more than 42 million Americans without health coverage. And, if the economy stumbles, this tragically high number could increase significantly."

Key findings of the study include:

1. The number of uninsured Americans decreased by 1.7 million between 1998 and 1999, the first decrease since 1987. The number with private coverage grew by four million.
2. Employment-based coverage has risen steadily during the past five years.
3. Despite this most recent decline in the number of uninsured Americans, an examination of the underlying factors affecting coverage levels shows that the number of Americans who lack health insurance coverage is likely to rise over the next eight years:
   0. Assuming continued economic growth and moderate health care cost inflation, the number of uninsured Americans will rise to more than 48 million in 2009.
   1. Rapid economic growth, coupled with rapid health care cost inflation (similar to that which took place in the 1980s) would lead to roughly 55 million uninsured in 2009.
   2. In the event of a recession, the number of Americans who lack coverage would reach 61 million by 2009.

HIAA’s new study – "The Changing Sources of Health Insurance" – is the fourth in a series of HIAA studies focusing on the uninsured, and was conducted for HIAA by William S. Custer, Ph.D., and Pat Ketsche, Ph.D., M.H.A., both of the Center for Risk Management and Insurance Research at Georgia State University. The study samples 61,615 observations from the 1998 Current Population Survey (CPS) and 63,473 observations from the 2000 CPS.

The Health Insurance Association of America (HIAA) is the nation’s most prominent trade association representing the private health care system. Its nearly 300 members provide health, long-term care, dental, disability, and supplemental coverage to more than 123 million Americans. It is the nation's premier provider of self-study courses on health insurance and managed care.

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NOTE: "The Changing Sources of Health Insurance" (PDF file) http://membership.hiaa.org/pdfs/2000CusterFour.pdf