Every year my work for American companies, investment firms, and think tanks results in a tremendous amount of global travel. I have learned that there is simply no substitute for seeing local circumstances with your own eyes and talking face-to-face with leaders who are struggling to cope with their problems.

Last May I visited China and met with top Chinese leaders to discuss concerns about WTO issues. In June, I visited Bulgaria and the Czech Republic to consult with elected leaders and central bankers concerning economic opportunities and dilemmas. Earlier that year I discussed with central bankers in Europe problems involving the Euro and potential vulnerabilities in the international derivative markets. And I have continued to monitor Japan's ongoing banking and growth problems with close contacts in Japan.

But our chairman was aware of another extensive trip I took this summer to Africa at the request of friends. He suggested that I share with you tonight some of the observations and conclusions from this consultation with Presidents, central bankers, key officials from the African development bank, leaders at the Organization of African Unity, aspiring political leaders, and hundreds of ordinary citizens.

One of the reasons that I agreed to make this trip was my long standing interest in Africa beginning with my Ph.D. dissertation about Kenya many decades ago. I took this trip not because Africa is strategically important to the United States, but rather because there are hundreds of millions of people often in desperate circumstances in that part of the world. These people need our understanding and assistance if they are not to undergo catastrophe on a scale that has not been seen since the plagues and wars of Europe during the Middle Ages.

Furthermore, I knew that Africa has produced a number of leaders who have the right policy instincts and who care about their people, but who need support in implementing their visions.

So what I am going to do in the next few minutes is offer some snap shots of what I saw and heard on this trip to give you some sense of what is happening in parts of Africa today. Then I plan to list some suggestions that could help deal with some of the regional problems.

Benin was the first country on the agenda. It is a small county in West Africa led by a remarkable man, President Kerekou. This veteran African leader had for many years followed a Marxist path, but realized at one point the bankruptcy of this approach and voluntarily left office. Years later, he ran for the Presidency on a very different platform and won overwhelmingly.

Benin, of course, was one of the great slave exporting countries in the 17th and 18th centuries. One Sunday morning during a recent trip to Washington, President Kerekou visited one of the largest predominately black churches. To the astonishment of the people, he begged forgiveness on behalf of his ancestors for having participated in the enslavement of their ancestors. I am told that there was hardly a dry eye in the church when the old gentleman finished his plea.

In Benin, there were two kinds of tribes. Some of the coastal tribes were the predators, and many of the tribes in the interior were the prey. The animosity between these two ethnic groups continues to this day to poison political and social life in Benin and elsewhere in West Africa. For the past several years, President Kerekou has organized reconciliation ceremonies to try to heal these wounds. And he has made considerable progress.

Indeed, so great is his stature as a regional moral leader that one of the other neighboring presidents I visited told me that he would happily lay on the ground and let Kerekou walk on him, so great was his respect for his distinguished neighbor.

In the Ivory Coast, I had two meetings with President Guei, whose name has recently been on the front pages of many American newspapers due to controversies surrounding the recent presidential election in the Ivory Coast. Indeed since our conversations, President Guei has fled into exile.

But in my meetings with him, it was obvious that he was an exhausted man with no evident ideas on how to deal with his country's multiple problems. he was surrounded by layers of bodyguards to foil assassination attempts. Within weeks of our visit, another coup attempt resulted in a narrow escape for the President and the death of a number of his guards.

I asked friends how he came to be President and was told a story which was largely confirmed later by the American embassy.

It seems that there were several hundred soldiers from Ivory Coast who had been sent on a peace keeping mission to a neighboring country. They had been promised a bonus for this dangerous assignment. When they completed their work and returned home, they applied to the Defense Ministry for their due bonuses, which

They then were told that the Ministry could not give them the bonuses, ostensibly because they were out of funds. The soldiers were told that they would possibly be paid next year.

The men were furious and took to the streets with their guns, firing into the air. Suddenly crowds of people emerged, cheering on the soldiers and thinking that they were part of the coup to remove the increasingly tyrannical incumbent President. The soldiers then moved to take over the television station and sought a replacement President. They realized that unless they found a new President, they would face the wrath of the incumbent as soon as they returned to their homes and barracks.

They first approached the Minister of Sports, who declined the honor. They then went to the farm of a retired general, Mr. Guei, and offered him the Presidency. He too declined. The soldiers then threatened to kill many members of the existing government unless General Guei became the President. Then, holding General Guei's wife hostage on the farm, they escorted the General to the television station. At the station, he announced that he would be the new interim President, but said that he would only hold the job long enough to organize new elections.

After a few months, however, members of General Guei's family discovered that they had an amazing talent for business, hitherto unknown. Somehow, contracts materialized along with a host of other benefits. They were reported to have pressed General Guei to stand for a full term in the upcoming elections. Since the General lacked much in the way of charisma or ideas for dealing with the nation's problems, some of the General's advisors and associates crafted an election procedure that disqualified most of the more popular potential opponents on one pretext or another. One relatively weak opponent remained, however.

Shortly after I left the country, riots broke our between the various factions. General Guei lost the election and was forced to flee the country. But it is not clear what will happen next in Ivory Coast. There are great tensions in the country, where there seems to be as many as 60 tribes and language groups, divisions between Christians, Muslims, and Animists. There is also ill will between the native Ivorians and the more recent immigrants who are attracted by the relative prosperity and stability of the country in past decades. No one thinks that politics are yet settled.

Nigeria was the next stop. From all the reports, the current President of Nigeria is an honest man with the interests of his people at heart. But there are a number of problems.

One of these is a culture of corruption which took root in part of the society and body politic in years past. A substantial percentage of Nigerian oil production is said to be officially unaccounted for. As you travel around chaotic Lagos, you frequently see warnings on buildings and fences against land scams.

The old agricultural base of the economy was neglected when oil became such a critical part of the economy. This contributed to over urbanization and drained the economy in other ways as well. During times of low oil prices, the lack of a more balanced economy is acutely felt. It also contributes to the high unemployment rate.

Airport security has been a persistent problem in recent years, particularly the smaller domestic airport in Lagos. Even my Nigerian hosts were alarmed as we ran the gauntlet of muggers and panhandlers between the parking lot and the actual terminal building. This, of course, also alarms potential foreign investors and tourists.

The new capital, Abuja, shows the signs of efforts of city planners to avoid the chaotic growth of Lagos. And Nigerians take justifiable pride in some of the new federal buildings. The most conspicuous feature of the local press, however, were articles about the struggle between the President and the new parliament over a self appropriation of $40,000 to each member of Parliament for furnishings for their private residences. The President felt that this was excessive, particularly during a period of budgetary stringency.

Great tensions between Muslim and Christian regions of the country are building again. These tensions have deep historic roots, but have recently worsened due to a campaign to impose Islamic law in areas of mixed populations with Muslim majorities.

You also hear the frequently expressed wish that the President would reach out to include more people in his inner circle, particularly younger people with recognized technical skills.

Ethiopia was a country that I toured extensively when I wrote my Ph.D. dissertation, but I had not visited this country for several decades. I was interested in seeing what 20 years of communist rule and war had wrought in Haile Selasi's ancient kingdom.

My first visit was to the American embassy to seek a briefing on economic and political conditions in this country. To my dismay, the senior political and economic counselor who had served there for three years was unable to tell me even the rate of inflation. It was an extremely depressing visit. Fortunately, in my hotel, I discovered an old friend, a senior IMF official who was consulting with the Ethiopian government. So I did receive an outstanding economic briefing.

I also met with many of the key leaders in Ethiopia, who had just completed a successful defensive war against Eritrea, their neighbor to the north, and who were struggling to get the economy back on track. Many of these people are honest, but a Marxist education is not always the best preparation for organizing an efficient market economy.

In Addis Ababa, we saw a world class hotel, but which is surrounded on all sides by dire poverty. Large numbers of maimed veterans of past wars, street urchins, the aged, and women with babies beg at every opportunity. It is heart rending to see such scenes, and they are poison for the tourist industry, which could become a massive source of jobs and foreign exchange.

Famine stalks the land in part of Ethiopia, even as one drives by vast well watered and fertile agricultural lands which could produce much higher yields with modern agricultural techniques. Unclear land tenure policies, a reaction to the vast feudal holdings of the Imperial era, prevent ownership and consolidation which are necessary to introduce modern farming on an efficient scale.

Many years ago I lived in Nairobi, Kenya. When I revisited this capital city, I found it virtually unrecognizable, swollen like many other African cities by weaknesses in the rural economy and the high birth rates. Drought and electrical shortages have caused famine and blackouts. I also saw the scars from the recent bombings of the American embassy. A large distant fortified replacement facility was rising in an isolated area far from the heart of the city. Yet another bunker-like ``Festung Amerika'', seeking to foil terrorist bombers, will be the inevitable final result.

I met with a number of able and prominent political leaders who were hoping to rise to power in the elections scheduled within the next two years. There was an awareness of the real cost of corruption to the national economy.

Kenya's agriculture is in crisis. Drought is only part of the problem. Kenyan farmers are compelled to sell their coffee, the country's main foreign exchange earner, to the government marketing board. This board has not yet paid the farmers for last year's crop, creating acute hardships and vast resentment. Such farmers are not in a position to make expensive outlays for fertilizer and other needed materials, guaranteeing a smaller crop next year to a country with a foreign exchange shortage and high unemployment.

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One bright spot, though, is the vast game parks of Kenya which are a source of great local pride and considerable tourist revenue. During a visit, we actually observed a group in Masai with spears trying to run down a lion, which no doubt has been stalking their cattle. The drought had brought both the cattle and the Masai into the normally forbidden game park.

In South Africa, the legacy of decades of apartheid has contributed to tension which are experienced at every hand. Johannesburg, once a vibrant city, has become an urban fortress with electrified fences and military concertina wire surrounding every affluent home and neighborhood. Private security services are one of the few booming businesses. Hotels are being built near the airport because much of the downtown area is no longer safe for visitors. Rural farmers find themselves sometimes virtually under siege. Perhaps as many as 50% of South Africans are unemployed. More than 20% are HIV positive and doomed unless medical assistance can be provided. Many of these stricken young men and women are deeply angry, contributing to the crime and violence. Educated young people are leaving the country in droves, moving to New Zealand, Australia, and elsewhere, and taking with them skills and talents which are desperately needed in South Africa itself.

Tension has arisen between former President Mandella and his successor. His successor is under great pressure to find jobs for black Africans. There is reluctance to confront the AIDS problem with the urgency that is needed. Land seizures supported by President Mugabe in Zimbabwe are putting growing pressures on South African leaders to follow similar policies. In Zimbabwe, such policies have proven catastrophic both for modern agriculture, the national economy itself, and for social peace. But it is not clear how long South African leaders can resist pressures to begin similar policies. There is great apprehension among the commercial farming communities.

Leaders of the South African government greatly resent unfavorable reports about conditions in South Africa since they desperately want to attract foreign investment to create jobs and support the currency. But the truth of the matter is that potential foreign investors always inquire of local contacts about true local conditions.

There is talk in South Africa, strongly opposed by the government, about breaking up the country into zones where racial and tribal concentrations exist. Unless stability is created, the growing anarchy could eventually lead to just such a result.

If the deterioration in South Africa leads to anarchy, civil war, and economic collapse, all neighboring countries with important commercial relationships with South Africa will also suffer. But the reverse is also true. If the South African economy can be stabilized and revived, growth and talent in South Africa will spread gradually throughout the southern region. So the stakes are very high. It is also important to remember that the earlier constructive action takes place, the easier it will be to achieve results.

Concerning South Africa, there are parts of the political class in other parts of the world which viewed their task as finished, once apartheid has been crushed and Mr. Mandella installed in office with a mission to reconcile the nation. But the truth of the matter is that Mr. Mandella is out of office. Many exiles from socialist traditions

The complexities and dilemmas inherent in this situation have caused many people who were involved in the anti-apartheid struggle from Western countries to avert their eyes from the growing unrest in large parts of South Africa. It would be an historic tragedy if the elimination of apartheid only ushered in a new era of economic and political misery, and eventually a new one-party perpetuating misfortune on all citizens, black and white. This would be a collective failure for all of us.

Reports on developments in former Zaire, now the Congo, are even more unsettling. These reports estimate that more than two million people have been killed in the war that has been raging throughout the country during the past two years. Here too there is talk about the possible breakup of this vast, potentially rich nation that has deteriorated steadily since 1960. Indeed, 70% of the modern hard surfaced roads built by Belgian colonists in Congo have reverted to bush and jungle and are unusable today.

Some of the world's richest mineral deposits are unworked due to violence, lack of mining machinery, collapsed transportation infrastructure, and poor maintenance of mines and facilities.

Revenues from some of the still working mining operations are being diverted to finance foreign troops defending the regime in Kinshasa against other foreign troops who are penetrating other parts of the country where a spill over from earlier wars had created intolerable conditions for neighboring countries.

Many African leaders have worked hard to bring peace to this wretched country and its 50 million people, but one agreement after another has not been implemented. And the war and killing continue.

1. It is important to understand that there is no magic wand that can, at a stroke, erase the legacy of decades of misrule, mistakes, injustice, poverty, and violence that have impacted parts of Africa. Many statistics are unreliable, particularly those which quantify bad news. But this knowledge should not paralyze us or prevent us from taking steps that can, in fact, mitigate some of the problems in the region and build a foundation for later growth and development. Furthermore, there are now a number

2. While there are generic problems in sub-Saharan Africa, such as the AIDS crisis and other public health problems of equal concern, each country in sub-Saharan Africa is truly unique in tribal composition, politics, history, traditions, resource base, religion, culture, and all the other factors that contribute to diversity. Without a detailed knowledge of these unique factors, it is difficult for even well-intentioned outsiders to contribute effectively in finding solutions to the problems. In the United States, for example, most parts of Africa lack an informed constituency of sufficient size to serve as a buffer against the mistakes that sometimes occur when policy issues in Washington become a compromise between a junior desk officer at the State Department, and a well-paid, politically connected lobbyist representing the incumbent ruler. Fortunately, America possesses talent and knowledge in depth about most parts of Africa. Some of our experts are in the academic world, some at the World Bank, some are retired diplomats, some sophisticated journalists, and so on. What is needed is an organized consultative process where these experts can be brought together to address the problems of individual African countries. Had such a process existed, it seems doubtful to me that the American government would have thrown its support behind Mr. Kabila, for example, and events in Sierra Leone would have evolved differently. When we make mistakes of this kind, not only do we lose credibility, but we also impose heavier burdens on a region that is already staggering. We owe it to the people of Africa either to send in a varsity team or get off the playing field.

3. Economic development cannot take place where armies are contesting the ground. Prevention and resolution of these conflicts requires a more effective effort. From the American point of view, the first line of defense in preventing conflict is a vigilant, active, well-connected and supported United States Embassy. It also requires in Washington a back-up chain of command which actually reads the reports from the field and is prepared to act on them in a timely manner. This does not mean dispatching the 82nd airborne division every time the fire bell rings. It does mean rapid and effective coordination with allies and regional powers and organizations, not to mention forceful, private representations to potential malefactors. It is a lot easier to stop a conflict before it is unleashed, than to try to halt one, once blood flows and popular passions rise.

In recent years pan Africa and sub regional African organizations have shown themselves willing to fill part of the vacuum left by former colonial powers' increasing reluctance to engage directly in the affairs of their former subject peoples. Greater international support for the peacekeeping operations, including regional and sub-regional organizations therefore is needed. Similarly when America deploys its prestigious, heavy hitters in diplomatic peace making missions, such efforts need to be supported, first of all, by our own government. Undoubtedly, the United Nations can play a large role in the future in this context if adequately led and supported.

4. Conflicting commercial ambitions by companies and individuals in various African countries have sometimes produced foreign diplomatic support for individual leaders or potential leaders who are viewed as friends. ELF Petroleum's objectives and the multiple rival interests in the diamond industry are some of the many examples of this.

Even where such interests are not directly involved, paranoia about the potential of such sponsorship is helping to prevent advanced countries from working together effectively to support development in Africa. Covert support for this or that potential leader is assumed. The recent election in the Ivory Coast was a case in point, where riots were mobilized by one group to protest alleged French attempts to interfere in the election process.

Yet it is absolutely clear that advanced countries could accomplish much more in Africa by working together than by allowing divisions over conflicting commercial agendas to poison cooperation.

There are a number of highly able African leaders who care about the interests of their peoples, but who sometimes do not have the in depth, local talent needed to craft development strategies that could command wide support.

There is an urgent need for such strategies in sub-Saharan Africa. The best of African

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At its peak, the mineral riches of one province in Congo provided 25% of the GNP of that country. Once peace comes, a high priority should be given to a plan to restore the power and transportation infrastructure to allow these minerals to play their earlier role in the local and global economy.

By the same token, unwise policies, such as the current efforts of President Mugabe to demagogue the issues involved in the commercial farming sector of his country, need to be more strongly discouraged by those in a position to deploy carrots and sticks. Everywhere in Africa there is a need for more intensive commercial farming, which has more than proven its potential in the latter part of the 20th century. The solid results achieved by efficient commercial farmers both in feeding local people and in providing desperately needed jobs and foreign exchange through exports is something that should not be ignored.

5. Delivery of health services is another area where more cost effective distribution systems are needed in some countries. A recent World Bank report suggested that of each $100 appropriated for medicines by national budgets in Africa, only $12 worth of such medicines reach patients. The rest of the money is lost through a combination of spoilage, corruption, and other apparent consequences of gross mismanagement.

The cost of commercially available treatment of HIV positive individuals or those with AIDS is about $15,000/person. This is the approximate cost of educating 100 primary school students for an entire year. Offers by the United States to provide loans to impoverished African countries to allow them to purchase greater quantities of commercially available drugs to prolong the useful lives of the HIV positive will not find many willing takers among governments with unlimited pressing needs and limited resources.

Prevention is obviously the most important first line of defense against this scourge. Senegal does an effective job in this regard, and its HIV positive population is merely 1.8% by comparison with other countries with rates in excess of 20% and growing. Uganda is also now successfully lowering the infected number of their citizens through effective anti-AIDS information campaigns. But the Senegal and Uganda information programs should be put on the road and marketed in all the African countries.

Brazil has successfully begun to attack its own HIV problem with generic drugs produced at a fraction of the $15,000 commercial rate. It did so by simply expropriating the technology and subsidizing the production and dissemination of the drugs.

Clearly, it is in the interest of all that current market-based incentives for research and development of anti-AIDS drugs should continue and intensify. Companies which are successful should be rewarded for their success. The franchises for distribution of HIV/AIDS medicines in Africa should be purchased by donor governments and multilateral health agencies.

Even if not all the millions now infected can be treated with anti-AIDS medicines due to cost factors and distribution complexities, at least the scarcest talent in the country, educated at vast cost, can be treated and their productive lives greatly extended.

6. Better education programs are clearly part of the answer to Africa's multiple problems. But today, less than 2% more women are being educated than was the case during the colonial period. Educational costs are unnecessarily high in some places because of unionized work forces that extract high salaries and benefits. In some places, governments cannot afford to field the number of highly paid teachers who are needed to address the requirements of Africa's children.

American children were educated in the 19th century with very simple structures and facilities. This is an area where friends of Africa in the developed world could perhaps usefully contribute more in talent, funds, and advice. Schools are also

7. Leadership. During the Cold War, the United States mounted an extensive effort to identify and support able, young people from many parts of the world. Large numbers were brought to the United States as visitors and hundreds of thousands were educated here. The AIDS scourge is decapitating large numbers of people, including the educated elites in Africa, and a massive effort to replace these vitally needed trained technical and leadership groups is urgently needed. This will have to be a shared task among many countries that are friends of Africa.

This presentation is by no means an attempt at a comprehensive look at Africa's current problems. Those interested in digging deeper into the details should begin by reading some of the useful publications that the World Bank has recently sponsored and examine the writings of other experts on Africa.

Rather this speech is an effort to point out some of the things that I saw myself on a recent tour of part of the continent and some of the conclusions that I reached.

It is intended as an appeal to parts of the policy community who normally have responsibilities far beyond this one isolated region. We all need to look again at what is happening in sub-Saharan Africa and reconsider our overall priorities.

There is plenty of evidence that when the broader policy community focuses its attention on a problem of this kind that it can greatly strengthen the local leadership classes that ultimately bear responsibility for implementing solutions.

In years past, non-profit organizations, scholars, journalists, retired diplomats, and politicians, as well as individuals working within governmental and multilateral organizations have made major contributions in Africa. River blindness, for example, has been almost eliminated from many parts of Africa. New strains of crops have turned some famine prone areas into food-exporting regions. Reconciliation efforts far from the eyes of the public have brought old enemies together. But when governments put their shoulders to the wheel with imagination, resources, and leadership, they can accomplish things that are far beyond what individuals can do.

There is both a need and an opportunity for collective international action in Africa today. The recent debt relief effort needs to be supplemented by programs that deal with other aspects of the continent's urgent needs.

Sometimes even a relatively modest effort in an area which is under-served can yield a disproportionately positive impact on the lives of a great many human beings. The opportunities now in Africa are great for this kind of commitment. I hope that some of you will take up the challenge. Leadership, imagination, and resources are urgently needed in this part of the world.

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