Copyright 2000 Newsday, Inc.
Newsday (New York, NY)
January 16, 2000, Sunday ALL EDITIONS
SECTION: AUTO OUTLOOK 2000; Page J02
LENGTH: 1375 words
HEADLINE:
AUTO OUTLOOK 2000 / READING THE ROAD SIGNSBEFORE DRIVING OFF INTO THE FUTURE
BYLINE: Tom Incantalupo
BODY:
PREDICTIONS: By the time you read this,
final sales figures for 1999 probably will have confirmed that the Toyota Camry
was the top-selling car in the U.S. in 1999, for the third straight year, easily
beating the second-place Honda Accord and the third-place Ford Taurus. And, as a
new year opens, there is nothing in anyone else's lineup that seems capable of
unseating the Camry in 2000.
HINTS ...
Often providing strong
hints at models to come, a new crop of show or " concept cars" will make the
auto show circuit this year in addition to the hybrid electrics. These include a
small roadster from DaimlerChrysler's Mercedes- Benz studios that is smaller
than the SLK and evocative aesthetically of Mercedes' Silver Arrow racers of the
1950s.
Another noteworthy show car: the Acura MD-X, an SUV/car hybrid
that looks like a contender to do battle with the Lexus RX 300. And, from Buick,
the Regal Cielo with a hardtop that splits into two panels and disappears into
the trunk at the touch of a button.
DEALS ...
Look for a battle
royal in the minivan and midsized mid-priced family sedan market the kind of
battle that usually means rebates and other forms of discounting that can save
you money.
One reason for that is the nation's strong economy, which has
allowed many consumers to shift upward into luxury cars and luxury trucks.
Another is demographics; baby boomers increasingly are outgrowing their needs
for family vehicles and, with most of their children (the so-called Echo
Boomers) not yet ready to begin their own families, analysts say there is a
shortage of family-car buyers and a surplus of product.
Industry analyst
Susan Jacobs, who heads her own consulting firm, figures that "The shrinking of
the number of households headed by people under the age of 40 is adding a lot of
pressure in the middle of the market at the moment on minivans, mid-sized sedans
and small cars, simply because that market either is going to trucks or going
upscale."
... AND DEALERS
Expect to hear a lot in coming weeks
about manufacturers' alleged efforts to muscle into car retailing, via the
Internet and experiments in ownership of dealerships. Auto retailing
historically has been the almost-exclusive realm of franchised dealers, who, to
say the least, are not pleased with the manufacturers' actions and will be
holding their annual convention in Orlando starting Jan. 25.
Unless the
earth is visited by space aliens or someone discovers a cure for the common cold
between now and next week, this is likely to be the major topic of conversation.
SAFETY ...
AND CLEAN AIR
Federal braking tests, light
truck rollovers and automobile exhaust emissions and fuel economy all are likely
to figure in controversy this year, against the backdrop of a presidential
election.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration wants to
add ratings for braking capability, headlamp effectiveness and rollover
resistance to those it now publishes for vehicles' crashworthiness in frontal
and side-impacts.
The intent is to give consumers more information to
help them choose a vehicle. But carmakers and even some safety advocates
disagree over the specifics of how the tests should be done and how relevant
they are to real world driving conditions.
NHTSA is hoping to add the
ratings late in the year, in time for the 2001 models.
Also expected
this year are standards covering the performance of "smart" air bags, whose
deployment threshold and power can vary and thereby reduce the chances of injury
from the bags themselves to children and others. Many cars already have smarter
air bags than those now required.
Federal safety officials also are
expected this year to propose that new cars be required to have release handles
inside trunks by Jan. 1 of 2001 to prevent the deaths of people trapped inside.
Some cars already have them. The NHTSA plan would mandate release mechanisms but
allow automakers to choose the type of handle or device to use.
Also
expected to be debated this year are higher fuel economy requirements for cars
and trucks. Presidential hopeful John McCain, the Republican senator from
Arizona, has been quoted as favoring reconsideration of federal
Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards now 27.5 miles to the
gallon for cars and 20.7 for trucks in view of the popularity of sport utility
vehicles and other relatively gas-thirsty light trucks.
You'll likely
hear more about that and about alternatives to gasoline for powering cars in
early April when the Department of Energy holds what is billed as a "Future Car
Congress," in suburban Washington.
Sometime in June, if everything goes
on schedule, safety regulators will have one of the world's biggest and most
exotic video "games," but its purpose is deadly serious: to reduce traffic
accidents caused by driver error. The $ 45 million national driving simulator
under construction at the University of Iowa will, at least according to its
builders, be the world's best, topping DaimlerChrysler's in Berlin.
Keith Brewer, the NHTSA official in charge of getting it constructed,
says its cab will be able to move 60 feet forward or rear and to the sides and
to rotate 330 degrees, all to help the "driver" aboard feel realistic motion.
"You can simulate a complete spinout, if you like," he said. The cab's windows
will have 360-degree "vision" of its simulated surroundings.
KICKING THE
TIRES
(OR THE MOUSE)
It is still a matter of debate whether
Internet shopping will completely replace, at least in our lifetimes, a visit to
a dealership to kick the tires, smell the leather and do some face-to-face
horsetrading. But there's no debating that growing numbers of Americans are
using the Net to research their automobile purchases and even to negotiate price
and arrange financing.
With the number of buying networks growing,
shopping via mouse is likely to become even easier and more attractive for
consumers than it is now. And, in a trend sure to continue in the coming year,
the carmakers will play a growing role in luring web surfing car shoppers to
their sites and to their dealerships.
AND THE BIG GET BIGGER ...
Three weeks before 1999 came to an end, General Motors, the world's
largest automaker, said it would purchase Subaru from Japan's Fuji Heavy
Industries Ltd., thus accelerating GM's push into Asia.
If the experts
are right, still more consolidation is in the cards for the world's auto
industry. DaimlerChrysler is believed to be shopping around for a small car
partner and speculation has been intense about a possible tie-in with Honda.
Some analysts think they would be a good fit, with Honda contributing its
world-class expertise in small car design and DC its deeper pockets that the
relatively small Japanese automaker needs to stay technologically competitive.
Meanwhile, as 1999 drew to a close, a bidding war between General Motors
and Ford seemed to be developing for Daewoo, the financially-troubled South
Korean automaker that has been trying for more than a year to establish a
toehold in the U.S. market.
PICKUPS AND PARKWAYS
Speaking of
trucks, you might be seeing more of them on the state's parkways. State
officials were expected at the time of this writing to issue new guidelines that
would permit certain light duty, non-commercial, pickup trucks on the state's
parkways, now off-limits to them in most cases.
FINALLY ... A GOODBYE
DaimlerChrysler will pull the plug slowly on its Plymouth brand this
year, to the delight of analysts who say its weak sales didn't justify its
continuation but to the chagrin of dealers and Plymouth aficionados who believe
DC is making a mistake abandoning a name that is so well known and has such a
rich history.
You can be forgiven if you associate the name now with the
very ordinary cars and minivans that have been its stock in trade almost without
exception for two decades but, for many, the name Plymouth still conjures
pleasant memories of the pulse-pound performance of muscle cars like the Road
Runner and Barracuda.
Tom Incantalupo, Newsday's auto writer, roadtests
a new vehicle for every Friday's Week In Wheels section.
GRAPHIC: 1) This year's
concept-car crop includes, far left, the Mercedes-Benz Vision SLR; 2) left, the
Buick Regal Cielo, and, below, 3) the Honda Spocket roadster.
LOAD-DATE: January 16, 2000 
