Copyright 1999 Gannett Company, Inc.
USA TODAY
July 2, 1999, Friday, FINAL EDITION
SECTION: MONEY; Pg. 2B
LENGTH: 341 words
HEADLINE:
How fatality statistics were calculated
BYLINE: James
R. Healey
BODY:
USA TODAY's analysis of deaths
resulting from federal fuel-economy
standards uses data and estimates from
the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration and the Insurance
Institute for Highway
Safety.
NHTSA is an arm of the Department
of Transportation and is responsible
for enforcing safety and fuel-economy
regulations. IIHS is a private
research organization supported by auto
insurance companies.
A 1995 IIHS study looked at fatalities
involving 1- and 2-year-old
cars, from 1993 models back through the '75
models current at
the birth of U.S. corporate average fuel
economy (CAFE, pronounced
ka-FE) standards.
IIHS found 10,656 more deaths in that 19-year period than if the
mix of car sizes had not been skewed smaller by CAFE standards.
IIHS looked only at 1- and 2-year-old cars, but cars stay on the
road a median 8.1 years. Divide that by two because each year
in the
IIHS study accounted for two model years, then multiply
by IIHS' 10,656
total. Result: 43,157 additional deaths through
1995. Other IIHS data
suggest close to 1,000 more deaths a year
since then, making the total about
46,000 through 1998.
IIHS President Brian O'Neill says the USA TODAY
calculation is
reasonable and the number of deaths could be even higher.
A 1989-91 NHTSA study analyzed car downsizing from 1975-85 as
a
result of fuel-economy regulations: Cars got 1,000 pounds lighter,
wheelbases shrank 10 inches, widths decreased slightly.
NHTSA
concluded: "Downsizing resulted in increases of nearly
2,000 fatalities and
20,000 serious or moderate injuries per year,"
or 200 deaths per 100 pounds
of weight reduction.
That would total about 22,000 deaths from
1975-85. But that's
too low, NHTSA concluded in a follow-up study completed
in 1995.
A better estimate: 302 deaths per 100 pounds cut. That boosts
the 1975-85 tally to 30,200. Since then, an additional 15,484
have died
from downsizing, using NHTSA's formula and agency data
on average car
weight.
Total dead from downsizing: 45,684.
LOAD-DATE: July 02, 1999 
