CAFE and the Environment: False Promises
In late 1994, the White House appointed a "Presidential Advisory Committee on Personal Motor Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Reductions", to look at ways to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide ("CO2") from cars and light trucks. Several environmental groups and their allies used that forum to lobby for higher CAFE standards, despite the adverse effects on consumers and the minimal effect that it would have on any global climate change.
The advisory committee (informally known as "Car Talks") held several meetings in 1995, looking at various aspects of travel and CO2 emissions. The committee was unable to reach any consensus recommendations, because of the extreme pro-CAFE position taken by environmental groups. In late 1995, the committee disbanded without any recommendation or final report. However, one faction of the committee issued an unofficial "majority report", which outlined predictable anti-car proposals, including higher CAFE standards, and restrictions on driving, highways and parking.
The debate over sharply higher fuel economy standards has been cast by the environmental lobby as a struggle for cleaner air and a fight to stop catastrophic global warming. But compare these claims with the scientific findings of experts.
No Link Between CAFE and Clean Air
Contrary to common perception, fuel economy is not a clean air issue. Better fuel economy for the U.S. fleet of cars and light trucks will not bring promised improvements in air quality, because there is little if any correlation between vehicle fuel economy and harmful tailpipe emissions.
The National Academy of Sciences report stated: "Fuel economy improvements will not directly affect vehicle emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and NOx because emissions standards (in grams per mile) are identical for every passenger car or light truck, as appropriate, regardless of fuel economy."
In other words, cars and light trucks with low mileage ratings must comply with the same emissions standards for harmful pollutants as the most fuel-efficient. So forcing motorists to switch to smaller, higher-mpg vehicles, would not be an effective means to reduce auto emissions.
Ironically, more stringent fuel economy requirements could actually work against efforts to improve air quality. The NAS study notes that some of the new engine technologies which hold the greatest promise for fuel economy improvements do not operate as cleanly as today's and can't meet the tighter auto emission standards currently being phased in. The study said, "Without a major technological breakthrough...there will be tight constraints on the application, particularly to larger vehicles, of promising current and emerging technologies for improving fuel economy...."
Also, with further CAFE increases, vehicle prices would rise, and downsizing would occur, which could negatively affect air quality by discouraging sales of new vehicles equipped with the most advanced emissions technologies. The result would be to keep older vehicles, which already account for a disproportionate share of emissions, on the road even longer. And, the trend toward longer vehicle life is already growing.
As a result, the study concluded: "If the standards became so stringent that the cost of automobiles increases significantly or their characteristics became less desirable, consumers might tend to continue to operate older cars."
"Because the older vehicles in the fleet are, in general, the least fuel-efficient and the most undesirable in terms of environmental pollution, incentives that inhibit vehicle turnover could delay the achievement of the objectives of the regulatory system."
CAFE and Global Climate Change: Little Impact
Grim predictions of global climate change have prompted urgent calls for higher CAFE. Fuel economy improvements have been cited as a means to reduce emissions of CO2, which is one of several "greenhouse gases" in the Earth's atmosphere whose concentrations are believed to have increased. Some scientists believe that rising levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to a global warming trend, but the scientific community is far from a consensus on the extent or timing of this risk.
Scientists and economists agree, however, that cutting CO2 emissions will require burning less fossil fuel, including oil. But CAFE is clearly an ineffective approach to curbing fossil fuel consumption. Higher fuel economy standards have been shown to save far less fuel than was predicted, because they encourage some motorists to hold on to older vehicles longer, some to switch to heavier (less efficient) vehicle classes, and many to drive more miles. And cars and light trucks account for less than half of oil usage in the U.S. Thus, the potential reductions in overall CO2 emissions resulting from higher CAFE are very limited, especially when viewed in a global perspective.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has confirmed that all U.S. cars and light trucks subject to CAFE standards make up only 1.5 percent of all global man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Because climate change is a global issue, policies should be evaluated in the context of their impact on the global greenhouse gas picture. Looking at a 40 mpg CAFE standards by 2001 in this scenario, the net result would be at most a reduction in the car and light truck portion of global man-made greenhouse gases of about four-tenths of one percent by 2010 -- hardly a significant impact. Scientists are clearly divided as to whether global warming is taking place, and whether man-made CO2 is responsible. But if it is occurring, higher CAFE standards are of little or no value as a response.
Again, the NAS study concluded higher CAFE standards could be counter-productive: "Improvements in vehicle fuel economy will have important indirect environmental impacts. For example, replacing the cast iron and steel components of vehicles with lighter weight materials (e.g., aluminum, plastics, or composites) may reduce fuel consumption but would generate a different set of environmental impacts as well as result in different kinds of indirect energy consumption."
"Greenhouse gas emissions from the production of substitute materials, such as aluminum or carbon fibers or plastics, could substantially offset decreases of those emissions achieved through improved fuel economy..."
Worldwide Man-made "Greenhouse" Gases*
* For CO2 unless otherwise noted.
Sources: U.S. EPA, amd U.N. World Meteorological Organization UNEP/IPCC. According to data from the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, proposed legislation to require a 40% increase in CAFE standards will reduce global greenhouse gases by only 4 tenths of 1 percent.
 |
CVC
home page |
 |
Back to last page |
 |
Top of this page |
This page last
updated: 8/24/97 |