CAFE history -- 1970 to today

The 1970's:

1973-74

• First Arab oil embargo against U.S., following war in Middle East. Federal government imposes domestic price and allocation controls on petroleum, resulting in widespread shortages and gasoline lines, as well as rapid price increases.

• Economy weakens, and consumer demand shifts toward smaller cars, including imports.

1975

• Congress enacts broad energy conservation bill ("EPCA"), including new auto fuel economy program. DOT is directed to set "corporate average fuel economy (CAFE)" standards for new cars starting in Model Year 1978, and for new light trucks starting in MY79. Each automaker is required to meet the standard on a sales-weighted basis, subject to large fines for non-compliance. EPA is put in charge of measuring fuel economy for each model, laboratory test procedures, and the mileage window-stickers.

Mid-to-late 1970's

• Domestic automakers begin to introduce smaller models, new fuel-saving features (front-wheel-drive), and downsize existing models, to meet consumer demand and CAFE rules. Sales of small high-mpg import models grow.

1977

• Carter Administration takes office.

• DOT issues CAFE standards for passenger cars, rising rapidly from 18.0 mpg in MY78 to 27.5 mpg in MY85 (the Congressional target). DOT also establishes initial standards for light trucks, starting in MY79.

1978-79

• Second Arab oil embargo against U.S. New round of shortages and price increases, with Federal controls still in effect.

• Congress passes "gas guzzler tax" (separate from CAFE program), administered by IRS, which assesses additional tax on passenger-car models with very low fuel-economy ratings.

• Economy weakens again; car sales decline (espedially larger models).

The 1980's:

1980

• Congress amends CAFE law to allow longer time to use "credits" (for offset against shortfalls below the standard).

• DOT announces dramatic increases in future light truck CAFE standards, from 16.0 in MY80 mpg to 21.0 by MY85.

• DOT also threatens to impose further CAFE increases for cars (above 27.5 mpg) after MY85.

1981

• Reagan Administration takes office and decontrols petroleum. That stimulates new exploration and production, eliminates gasoline shortages and stabilizes prices.

• DOT withdraws threat of post-MY85 CAFE increases for cars.

Early 1980's

• Economic recovery begins, inflation subsides, gasoline prices stabilize and decline. Consumer demand for new cars returns, and starts to shift back from smaller cars toward mid-size and larger vehicles.

• Automakers continue to downsize and improve fuel economy performance of new models, but sales of small high-mileage vehicles drop off.

1984

• DOT adjusts light truck CAFE standards, in light of changes in consumer demand, to 19.5 mpg for MY85 and 20.0 mpg for MY86. Courts later uphold the adjustment.

1985-86

• DOT announces modest reduction in passenger car CAFE requirement (from 27.5 mpg to 26.0) for MY86-88, in light of changed consumer demand, and to avoid job losses in U.S. auto industry. Most comments are favorable. Anti-car groups file suit, but courts later uphold the reduction.

Mid-to-late 1980's

• Continued strong economy, with gasoline prices stable. Consumer demand continues toward mid-size cars and luxury cars and additional power/comfort features, which largely offsets more fuel-efficient technologies introduced by automakers.

• Most full-size cars and station wagons and rear-wheel-drive models are eliminated. Many consumers respond by switching to new light-truck lines, including mini-vans and sport-utility vehicles, which offer larger size and hauling capacity.

• NHTSA issues new safety standards for cars and light trucks, which add to vehicle weight and reduce fuel economy.

1987

• Reagan Administration proposes repeal of CAFE law, as harmful to U.S. jobs and competitiveness. Congress takes no action.

1988

• Research study by Brookings Institution and Harvard Public Health School indicates substantial increase in highway traffic deaths has occurred, resulting from CAFE and downsizing.

• Congress passes new law to stimulate production of alternative-fuel and "dual-fuel" vehicles, by offering limited additional CAFE credits.

1989

• Bush Administration takes office. DOT increases passenger car CAFE standard back to 27.5 mpg.

• Senate committee approves bill by Sen. Bryan to increase CAFE standards by 40% by 2001 (to 40 mpg for cars), over Bush Administration objections.

The 1990's:

Summer 1990
• Congress passes new Clean Air Act, with tighter tailpipe emissions standards for cars and light trucks, limiting opportunities for fuel-economy improvement.

• Iraq invades Kuwait, international community imposes embargo against oil from those countries, and U.S. launches Operation Desert Shield.

• NHTSA issues comprehensive safety study, showing that downsizing of cars has increased death and injury risk for occupants, and warns against further downsizing and higher CAFE. Insurance Institue for Highway Safety (IIHS) releases its own study, with similar conclusions.

• Senate takes up Bryan bill to raise CAFE. Bush Administration strongly objects, and Senate votes narrowly to table the bill.

Early 1991

• Gasoline prices rise slightly in U.S. and other countries, due to disruption of Middle East oil supplies. U.S. launches Operation Desert Storm, frees Kuwait.

• Senate committee again approves Bryan bill to increase CAFE standards, and Bush Administration again objects. Senate also threatens to include CAFE provision in pending energy bill.

• CVC established, to represent vehicle consumers and other groups opposed to extreme CAFE legislation.

• NHTSA repeats and updates its warning of increased safety risks from vehicle downsizing.

Summer 1991

• CVC spearheads rallies of labor, business, farmers and others in cities around U.S., opposing CAFE increases. CVC also launches newspaper and TV ads, showing government crash test with large and small car, to warn about vehicle downsizing.

Fall 1991

• Senate takes up energy bill, decides to drop controversial provisions on CAFE and oil drilling in Alaska.

Spring 1992

• National Academy of Sciences (NAS) releases comprehensive study on auto fuel economy, confirming that CAFE program is "seriously flawed", and outlining the trade-offs of higher gas mileage (including cost, safety, utility, performance and pollution).

• Updated study from Harvard Injury Control Center again confirms adverse safety effects of CAFE and downsizing.

• Federal appeals court criticizes DOT for 1989 decision to increase MY90 car CAFE, without considering safety impact.

• House briefly considers bill to force reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which would lead to higher CAFE for motor vehicles, but then drops the proposal.

• U.S. participates in U.N. "Earth Summit" (Rio de Janeiro), pledges support for voluntary efforts to moderate CO2 emissions.

Fall 1992

• Congress passes energy bill, with no CAFE provisions.

• CAFE surfaces briefly as issue in Presidential campaign, with Bush opposed to increases, and Clinton first supporting an increase, but then modifying position to avoid taking actions that hurt U.S. auto workers.

January 1993

• Clinton Administration takes office.

Fall 1993

• Government and automakers launch new joint research program ("PNGV"), to develop new prototype mid-size car with fuel economy up to 80 mpg.

• White House releases "Climate Change Action Plan" on voluntary efforts to limit CO2 and other greenhouse gases, promises new advisory committee to consider CAFE and other vehicle-related efforts.

Early and mid-1990's

• Continuing growth in sales of light trucks, including mini-vans and sport-utility vehicles. Consumers discover extra safety and utility of these vehicles, as nearly all full-size passenger cars and station wagons are eliminated.

April 1994

• DOT announces new threat to raise light-truck CAFE standards by 40% over next decade (1998-2006), from current level (20.7 mpg) to as high as 26-28 mpg, which threatens future availability of popular models and features. DOT cites concerns over climate change as primary reason.

Summer 1994

• Light-truck users object strongly, send hundreds of letters against the proposal to DOT.

Late 1994

• White House appoints advisory committee on auto-related greenhouse gases ("Car Talks"), with majority of members already on record favoring large CAFE increases.

Summer 1995

• Congress holds first hearing in 20 years on whether CAFE program may be counter-productive. CVC and other groups testify that program has outlived whatever usefulness it once had, and that higher CAFE standards now threaten vehicle choice and highway safety.

• Legislation to "freeze" CAFE at current levels (27.5 mpg for cars, 20.7 for light trucks) introduced in House by Reps. Upton and Brown, with bi-partisan co-sponsors.

Fall 1995

• Congress orders DOT not to impose any CAFE increases during Fiscal Year 1996, thus blocking any increase in MY98 light truck CAFE.

• White House advisory committee unable to reach consensus on final report, and disbands. Several anti-car members issue their own unofficial report, with predictable support for higher CAFE.

Spring 1996

• CAFE "freeze" legislation introduced in Senate, by Sens. Abraham and Levin, with bi-partisan co-sponsors.

• Gasoline prices rise slightly (due to harsh winter and introduction of reformulated gasoline in many cities). Senate considers bill to reduce gasoline tax, and two senators threaten to re-introduce bill for higher CAFE.

Summer 1996

• Clinton Administration quietly reverses position on climate policy, decides to support binding reductions in CO2 by U.S. and other developed nations, as part of international agreement to be signed in December 1997.

Fall 1996

• Congress again orders DOT not to increase CAFE during FY97, despite objections from Clinton Administration. That protects consumers from DOT increases in CAFE for MY99 light trucks.

February 1997

• Permanent CAFE "freeze" bills re-introduced in House (H.R. 880) and Senate (S. 286), again with bi-partisan support.

June 1997

• NHTSA releases updated safety studies, again confirming adverse safety effect of downsizing, for both cars and light trucks.

• Congress begins hearings on Administration climate policy, including energy restrictions and price increases, and economic impact of exemption for "developing" countries.

• Resolution introduced by Senators Byrd and Hagel, with large bi-partisan support, urging President not to sign climate agreement which hurts the U.S. economy.

July 1997

• Senate approves Byrd-Hagel resolution on climate treaty, 95-0.

Fall 1997

• CVC helps sponsor newspaper ads, highlighting concerns over adverse effects of climate agreement on vehicle users and mobility.

• Congress again orders DOT not to increase CAFE during FY98, despite objections from Clinton Administration, to protect consumers from CAFE increases for MY2000 light trucks.

December 1997

• U.S. negotiators attend climate conference in Kyoto, agree to proposed U.N. climate treaty which would require U.S. to make substantial cutbacks in energy use by 2010, but does not require any action by developing countries. Many in Congress object strongly, and White House announces it will delay submitting treaty for ratification.

February 1998

• Two new studies on effect of vehicle size and weight on highway safety by IIHS and Univ. of Michigan, based on analysis of real-world traffic data. Both studies confirm again that size and weight provide important safety benefits to occupants, in multi-vehicle as well as single-vehicle crashes. Those studies show relative safety advantage of light truck models, but anti-vehicle groups step up their attacks against trucks.

March 1998

• Senate considers highway funding bill. Two senators plan amendment to impose large increase in light truck CAFE (from 20.7 to 27.5 mpg), with support from vehicle critics. Vehicle users object strongly. Sponsors decide to defer amendment for better opportunity.

• New White House study concedes that U.N. climate agreement would increase energy costs for American consumers, including electric bills and gasoline prices. Independent economists believe the Administration study is overly optimistic, and that adverse effect would be considerably larger.

October 1998

• Economic analysis by Energy Information Administration, part of U.S. Energy Department, shows severe adverse effects of Kyoto treaty on U.S. economy, far worse than White House projections.

• Congress again orders DOT not to increase CAFE during FY99, despite objections from Clinton Administration, to protect consumers from CAFE increases for MY2001 light trucks.

January 1999

• Permanent CAFE "freeze" bill re-introduced in the Senate (S. 147), again with bi-partisan support.

May 1999

• Permanent CAFE "freeze" bill re-introduced in the House (H.R. 1992), also with bi-partisan support.

• Members of the Senate speak out on CAFE: 31 sign a letter supporting higher standards (despite the adverse effect on consumer choice), and 36 others sign a letter supporting extension of the freeze.

June 1999

• The House Appropriations Committee approves a renewal of the freeze, as part of the DOT appropriations bill for FY2000 (H.R. 2084). The bill is then passed by the full House.

July 1999

• An in-depth analysis by USA Today shows 46,000 lives lost to CAFE and downsizing since the late 1970's, confirming the findings of other highway safety researchers on the subject.

September 1999

• By a vote of 55-40, the Senate rejects arguments from anti-vehicle activists and votes not to oppose the House-passed CAFE freeze extension, during debate on the Senate's DOT spending bill (S. 1143). House-Senate conferees then agree to include the freeze in the final DOT budget bill (H.R. 2084).

October 1999

• On October 9, President Clinton signs the DOT budget for FY2000, extending the CAFE freeze for another year.

• On October 20, environmental activist groups petition EPA to impose limits on auto emissions of CO2, the functional equivalent of higher CAFE, despite Congress' action in freezing CAFE.

November 1999

• Four members of the House circulate a letter calling for higher CAFE, with support from pro-CAFE/anti-vehicle groups.

The 2000's:

March 2000

• The Harvard School of Public Health warns about the adverse safety effect of higher CAFE. But anti-vehicle groups press ahead to gather House support for plans to force CAFE restrictions on public.

May 2000

• The House Appropriations Committee agrees to continue the CAFE freeze for another year. Pro-CAFE forces decide at last minute not to challenge the freeze on the House floor, turning their attention to the Senate instead.

June 2000

• Three Senators try to block the CAFE freeze on the Senate floor, but other Senators speak up for consumer choice and safety. The two sides agree to continue the freeze for another year, and to ask for a new study of the issue by the National Academy of Sciences.

October 2000

• The President signs the DOT appropriations bill, extending the CAFE freeze through FY2001 (thus preventing any CAFE increases thru MY2003).

January 2001

• Bush Administration takes office.

May 2001

• Five senators and 10 House members introduce companion bills to force a drastic 30 percent increase in light-truck CAFE standards.

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This page last updated: 6/15/01