Copyright 2000 The Washington Post
The Washington
Post
September 19, 2000, Tuesday, Final Edition
SECTION: STYLE; Pg. C02; THE RADIO LISTENER
LENGTH: 1076 words
HEADLINE:
Giants May Be In for a Fall; New Technologies Could Mean Same Old Tunes
BYLINE: Frank Ahrens , Washington Post Staff Writer
BODY:
Tomorrow in San Francisco, the
nation's radio broadcasters launch their annual mega-convention. Like most trade
shows, this four-day bash is a mutual admiration Bacchanalia where the only
thing that flows more freely than the hospitality suite booze is the unbridled
optimism about radio's future.
This year, there may be reason to temper
the optimism (and order more booze).
Big Radio--the mega-chains that own
most of the nation's radio stations--carry a profitable past into an uncertain
future. New technologies--satellite, Internet and low-power FM
radio--may make Big Radio feel like Detroit's Big Three automakers, circa 1974.
While Detroit disgorged whopper V8 Chevy Impalas that got 12 miles per
gallon, Honda, Datsun and Toyota began exporting smaller, fuel-efficient
vehicles. Detroit scoffed, crowing that real Americans would never buy the tiny
imports.
Then, OPEC became a world power.
Americans, smart folks
that they are, started scooping up those imports, leaving Detroit scrambling to
recoup. But by then it was too late.
Now, take a look at Big Radio. If
Detroit had General Motors and Ford, radio has Clear Channel Communications and
Viacom/Infinity.
Clear Channel (eight Washington stations) is the
industry's radio giant with nearly 1,000 stations, capable of reaching half the
nation's listeners. Viacom/Infinity (formerly CBS Radio; eight Washington
stations) is No. 2, with 186 stations. (Though Infinity has fewer stations, they
are in the nation's largest cities and reach almost as many listeners as Clear
Channel stations.)
Last year, these two giants helped the radio industry
bill $ 17 billion in advertising--another record year. Advertising has risen
each quarter of this year. Dot-com advertising has gone through the roof.
And yet . . .
A recent study by communications industry banking
firm Veronis, Suhler and Associates predicted that radio ad revenues will keep
rising over the next few years, but at a lower rate. That's worrisome for radio
companies, which incurred massive debt during their recent station-buying spree.
To cut costs, radio stations cut jobs. But stock prices have not soared.
Additionally troubling, the income from dot-com advertisers may be as
short-lived as many of the dot-coms themselves.
What's it all mean for
the listener?
It means radio stations are less likely to take chances
with original programming or varied playlists--they have to stick to
moneymaking, familiar song hit lists that provide reliable ratings and revenue.
In other words: radio like today, only more so.
To complete the analogy,
the Hondas and Datsuns that so vexed Detroit may be seen in radio's new
technologies.
Satellite radio, scheduled to launch by this time next
year, will charge subscribers $ 9.95 a month for 100 channels of music and talk.
Instead of one classical music station with a limited playlist, satellite radio
promises, you'll have a choice of three with deep and broad song selection.
Internet radio lets listeners hear stations from all over the world. The
downside: You have to be at your computer, listening through tinny speakers. The
upside: Not for long, as wireless technology promises Internet portability.
As for low-power FM--the FCC's proposal to license tiny
neighborhood radio stations--its fate may soon be decided in Congress, as the
Senate has proposed a rider to the budget bill that would severely restrict the
tiny stations. The low-power proposal has been strenuously fought by the
National Association of Broadcasters, which is hosting this week's convention,
because it fears the low-power stations will cause staticky interference on the
FM dial. Low-power advocates say the NAB just doesn't want the competition on
the airwaves.
So how will Big Radio respond to these new threats nipping
at their ankles?
By dropping a Pinto?
Or by doing something
smarter?
It is telling that Clear Channel bought a major stake in XM
satellite radio and is spending money to develop Internet radio. It is equally
telling that Viacom/Infinity has not invested in satellite radio and has
forbidden its stations from broadcasting over their Web sites, choosing to hold
off on the Internet until it can figure out how to make money from it.
So maybe there's no need for Big Radio to be alarmed. At least not yet.
But that may be what they were telling each other in the GM boardroom in 1974.
Prodigal Son
It must have seemed like a cruel
taunt to WHUR. Top-rated morning man Tom Joyner broadcast live from a big white
tent next to Republic Gardens on U Street NW last Thursday--just eight blocks
from the radio station he left in August.
Joyner, whose syndicated show
is heard on WMMJ (102.3), left WHUR (96.3) after five years at the Howard
University station, and was ushered into the Radio One empire with the promise
of reaching more listeners.
Joyner called the all-talk broadcast--an
appeal to his predominantly black audience to vote in November's election--a
"bittersweet" occasion, according to The Post's Hamil Harris, who attended the
event.
"I had a real attachment to Howard University--for the past five
years it was our flagship station," Joyner said. But the Radio One deal allowed
him to "pick up stations in Boston and Houston, and these are two of the top 10
markets."
Let the Katz Out
Eleven-year WRQX
(107.3) deejay Lewis (Loo) Katz, who helmed afternoon-drive at the
adult-contemporary station for the past decade, is looking for work in the area
after his resignation on Aug. 25--his 46th birthday.
Katz's show has
been a ratings winner for the ABC/Disney station, often finishing second to
WJFK's Don Geronimo and Mike O'Meara among listeners 25-54, riding the
popularity of the station's morning show with Jack Diamond and Bert Weiss. But
Katz's five-year contract expired this month, and he and the station couldn't
agree on a new one.
Both sides are reticent to elaborate on the parting.
"In this day and age of consolidation we're in now, the more hats you're
wearing, the more valuable you are," Katz said. "If you can be on the air and
have other duties, you're more valuable to a company."
Steve Kosbau,
operations director for WRQX, said the station offered Katz a deal but "he
rejected it." Kosbau added that he was unaware Katz wanted to do other jobs at
the station.
Talk about radio with The Listener today at 1 p.m.
at www.washingtonpost.com/ liveonline.
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September 19, 2000 
