Copyright 2000 Phoenix Newspapers, Inc.
THE ARIZONA
REPUBLIC
May 25, 2000 Thursday, Final Chaser
SECTION: FRONT; Pg. A10
LENGTH: 732 words
HEADLINE:
NEW CHINA POLICY WILL TAKE YEARS TO EVALUATE
BYLINE: By
Bill Nichols, USA Today
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
BODY:
President Clinton and Republican leaders were
jubilant about Wednesday's victory in the House for the China trade bill, as
were lobbyists for U.S. companies that see a potential windfall in the promised
new access to China's previously closed markets.
But it will take years,
even decades, to judge whether this very complicated and controversial deal was
a wise move.
*On economic grounds, U.S. business interests will have to
wait and see whether China honors the agreement and really does open its markets
to American goods.
The agreement grants China permanent, normal
trade status in place of annual reviews. In return, the United States
will be able to take advantage of market-opening concessions granted by China
during negotiations over its upcoming accession into the World Trade
Organization, the Geneva-based body that writes the rules for global trade.
Opponents of the bill argued that China has an abysmal record of living
up to international agreements. Likewise, it will take time to gauge how many
U.S. jobs are lost to surges of Chinese imports, particularly textiles, or from
U.S. companies that relocate plants to China to take advantage of cheap labor.
*On diplomatic grounds, it remains to be seen whether an open China
becomes a more democratic China or whether Beijing's aging leadership cracks
down to preserve order in a population increasingly exposed to Western freedoms.
Last year, Amnesty International reports, the Beijing government engaged
in the harshest repression of peaceful dissent and religious freedom in a
decade.
Opponents of the bill argued that the annual debate on extending
normal trade status to China was one of the few ways in which Washington could
pressure Beijing to improve its labor, human rights and environmental records.
Likewise, the tensions between China and Taiwan, which were purposefully
downplayed by both sides in the weeks leading up to this vote, still must be
resolved.
*On domestic political grounds, Vice President Gore and House
Democrats who supported the bill will find out whether labor leaders stand by
their vow to punish any Democrat who backed the measure.
Labor officials
denied casting this vote as a litmus test for union support. They said labor
endorsements are made on a host of issues, not one key bill.
But labor
leaders also warned that House members who voted for the bill might see a
lessening of enthusiasm for their candidacies. Those aren't reassuring
sentiments to Democrats, who hope to regain control of the House this fall.
And with Gore trailing Texas Gov. George W. Bush in presidential polls,
a lack of full-throated labor support could likewise hurt the vice president's
chances.
Tuesday, United Auto Workers President Stephen Yokich raised
the prospect of endorsing independent Ralph Nader, who, Yokich said, "will take
a stand based on what is right, not what big money dictates." That could hurt
Gore in states with a large union presence, such as Michigan, where polls show
Gore and Bush even.
*For Clinton, the vote represents a victory for his
key legislative priority during his final year in office and a capstone for
eight years of his administration's policies on trade and U.S.-China relations.
The vote builds on previous Clinton victories on the North American Free
Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization in establishing broadened free
trade as one of the president's chief legacies.
"This administration is
really the first one to really lay out the framework for the post-Cold War
world, and I think trade is a huge, huge part of that," said Dave McCurdy, a
former Democratic Oklahoma congressman who now heads the Electronic Industries
Alliance.
Although Clinton talked tough about the "butchers of Beijing"
in his 1992 campaign, the trade bill vote represents the ultimate expression of
his belief that increased engagement with China will speed the birth of a
democracy in Beijing and the death of communism.
The White House began
the year terrified that the China trade vote could backfire in the same way that
last year's Senate vote on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty did. A defeat would
have subjected Clinton to international criticism and second-guessing.
So there are healthy sighs of relief at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. And there
are realistic apprehensions for the future, which is when the wisdom of the
policy will be judged.
LOAD-DATE: May 26, 2000
