Voters oppose granting China permanent trade access without annual review by Congress...

As Congress debates opening U.S. markets to unrestricted trade with China without annual reviews, a new Peter D. Hart Research Associates survey reveals that the voting public opposes granting China permanent Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status.

Currently, Congress must review China's trade and human rights policies and practices each year before extending preferred trading status to that country. But Congress is considering a proposal to end the annual review and make China's NTR status (formerly called Most Favored Nation status) permanent—even though the U.S. State Department reports that in 1999, China's "poor human rights record deteriorated markedly throughout the year, as the government intensified efforts to suppress dissent."

...And the opposition is widespread

Opposition to permanent NTR status for China is widespread and particularly strong among Republicans and those who say they are informed about the issue. Voters express deep distrust of China as a partner in the global economy, saying China has unfair trade policies and ranking China below average on opening its markets to U.S. goods, living up to trade agreements and respecting workers' rights and human rights.

Voters say their disapproval of unrestricted trade with China is likely to affect their votes in Election Year 2000. By a 4-to-1 margin, voters say they will be less likely to support a congressional candidate who votes for permanent NTR status for China.

The American People Oppose Permanent NTR for China

Fully 65 percent of voters surveyed say they oppose "granting China permanent trade access to the U.S. market, with no more annual review of China's human rights and trade record by Congress." Only 18 percent favor taking this step.

Voters are less likely to support a pro-China-trade member of Congress

What if your member of Congress voted for permanent free trade with China?

Majorities of men and women in all age groups, races, incomes, education levels and regions of the country oppose permanent NTR, the survey shows. The strongest opposition comes from Republicans, 75 percent of whom say they oppose permanent NTR for China.

Similarly, 48 percent of voters oppose admitting China to the World Trade Organization (WTO), compared with a mere 36 percent who favor allowing China to enter the WTO. Congress, however, does not have a say in determining whether China may join the WTO.

China Trade Support Would Hurt Congressional Candidates

Voters feel strongly enough about keeping China on probation as a trade partner that they say the issue will affect their congressional votes in November. By a 4-to-1 margin, the voters surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who supported free trade with China.

Voters support foreign trade...

The wide margin between those less likely and those more likely to support a member of Congress who voted for permanent NTR for China extends across all demographic groups—but it is particularly notable among Republicans: 53 percent say they would be less likely to vote to re-elect their member of Congress if he or she supported permanent free trade with China, compared with 11 percent who would be more likely to vote for the member. Among all union members surveyed, 50 percent would be less likely to support the candidate.

Voters Want Fair Trade That Protects Workers, Jobs and the Environment

America's distaste for granting China greater access to U.S. markets does not reflect voters' sentiments toward foreign trade overall. The majority of voters say foreign trade has a positive effect on the U.S. economy, and their proportion has grown significantly in recent years.

...But want trade agreements to protect jobs, the environment and workers

But voters say foreign trade should be fair—and that China has not earned U.S. trust.

When asked to select the one or two goals for international trade they consider most important, the voters surveyed are clear: U.S. trade agreements, they say, should prevent the loss of U.S. jobs, protect the environment and prevent unfair competition by countries that violate workers' rights.

In contrast, far fewer say that opening foreign markets to U.S. exports should be a top goal.

Voters reject the notion that granting China permanent free trade access to U.S. markets is our best or only option for dealing with that country. Instead, they say, our trade relations with China should be contingent on a fair agreement and subject to annual review.

Voters say 'No' to a blank check for China...

Which statement do you agree with more? Engage China "...This agreement will eliminate barriers to U.S. products, expanding our exports and creating good jobs in America....American business will be hurt if other countries have access to the Chinese market and we don't....The best way to improve human rights in China is not to restrict trade, but to engage China and include it in important international bodies, such as the World Trade Organization." Tie China Trade to Fair Trade and Human Rights "...China's record of human rights abuses, use of forced labor and violations of past trade agreements means that it has not yet earned permanent free trade relations....Congress should continue to have annual reviews, to make sure China keeps its promises to open its market to U.S. products and improve human rights....Congress should only give China permanent access to our market when it agrees to meet real human rights and labor standards."

Voters were asked to choose which of two statements about permanent NTR they agree with. A statement supporting the agreement said it would eliminate barriers to U.S. products, expanding our exports and creating good jobs here. U.S. businesses will be hurt if other countries have access to the Chinese market and we don't, the statement continued, and the best way to improve human rights in China is to engage China and include it in such important international bodies as the WTO.

...And voters consider China an unfair trader

Percentage ranking China below average

That argument rings true with only one-fifth of the public. More than two-thirds of those surveyed say permanent free trade access for China should be contingent upon China engaging in fair trade and meeting real standards for human rights and workers' rights.

The voters surveyed expressed little confidence that China would meet the standards they believe should apply to international trade agreements, indicating that much of the opposition to permanent NTR for China is based on distrust of China as a trading partner. Sixty-one percent of voters surveyed say China has unfair trade policies, up from 48 percent in 1994. By comparison, 51 percent say Japan has unfair trade policies and 35 percent have that opinion about Mexico.

Voters rank China "below average," compared with other countries, on such key indicators as market access, living up to its trade agreements and respecting human and workers' rights.

That belief appears to be a key factor in voters' overwhelming view that China's trade practices and human rights record continue to warrant annual review.

About the Survey The data in this report are based on a scientific telephone survey of a random sample of registered voters. The survey, conducted Jan. 25-30, 2000, by Peter D. Hart Research Associates on behalf of the AFL-CIO, drew the opinions of 609 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.