LEXIS-NEXIS® Academic Universe-Document

LEXIS-NEXIS® Academic

September 3, 2000, Sunday, FIVE STAR LIFT EDITION

SECTION: NEWS, Pg. A1

LENGTH: 1274 words

HEADLINE: CONGRESS WILL RETURN WITH POLITICS AS BACKDROP;
ELECTION YEAR HAS PARTIES ON EDGE, AND STAKES ARE HIGH

BYLINE: Deirdre Shesgreen; Post-Dispatch Washington Bureau

DATELINE: WASHINGTON

BODY:

If Republicans were to make a movie out of the coming final weeks of the 106th Congress, they would probably produce a light summer romance, featuring House Speaker Dennis Hastert and President Bill Clinton.

The two stars would make quick, sweet deals on the budget, tax cuts, and perhaps a minimum wage increase -- leaving viewers (i.e., voters) with a warm, fuzzy feeling.

The Democrats, by contrast, would probably opt for high drama and turmoil, perhaps in the mold of a summer blockbuster like "The Perfect Storm" or even "Gladiator."

As lawmakers reconvene this week to finish the business of the 106th Congress, it's unclear just how the plot will unfold. Congress has a full agenda of contentious issues -- from the annual budget bills to trade relations with China -- to tackle in a short time. The target for adjournment is early October. And with control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate up for grabs in November, lawmakers will return to work in a highly charged political atmosphere. They will be operating with the understanding that everything they do -- or don't do -- is potential fodder for a campaign commercial.

"It's likely to be very partisan and a lot of posturing, and the chances of doing productive things are very low," said John S. Jackson, a political scientist and interim chancellor at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale.

But Hastert, R-Ill., and other GOP leaders want to put together at least a modest list of accomplishments that Republicans can campaign on, thus protecting their 7-seat margin in the House. And some believe the GOP's election anxieties could become the driving force for a banner legislative session.

If the Republicans' need for legislative accomplishments dovetails with Clinton's desire to burnish his legacy, "this could be a productive Congress," said Norman Ornstein, a scholar with the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

Indeed, the election-year dynamic is apparent in the differing expectations of area lawmakers. Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond, R-Mo., who is not up for re-election, said that although he hopes Congress will resolve some languishing proposals, such as ones on bankruptcy reform and small business tax relief, he's not optimistic.

"We're going to have a tough time getting much done other than the appropriations bills," said Bond, chairman of a key spending subcommittee.

By contrast, Sen. John Ashcroft, R-Mo., who is locked in a bitter election battle with Gov. Mel Carnahan, a Democrat, ticked off an ambitious set of proposals he plans to press in the coming weeks: his provision for a Medicare and Social Security "lock box," a resolution to the deadlock over a patients' bill of rights, and a bipartisan plan to provide a prescription drug benefit for older Americans, among other things.

"These are things this election year offers us an opportunity to come together on," Ashcroft said.

Ashcroft denied that his ambitious plans are driven by his own re-election contest - in which prescription drugs and HMO reform are top issues. But it's clear that unless Congress passes these bills before November, it will become campaign material for Carnahan.

In the House, Speaker Hastert has already sent a clear signal that he's in a deal-making mood. In a letter last week to Clinton, Hastert offered to back the Democrats' proposal for a $ 1 increase in the minimum wage over two years, if Clinton supports $ 76 billion in tax cuts over the next decade. Hastert also agreed to drop two tax cuts that the GOP had originally pushed.

"The speaker and president and Senate leaders are going to be able to work these things out through the regular order," said Hastert spokesman John Feehery, referring to the slew of bills that Congress faces. "You don't have to have a showdown at the OK Corral every year."

At the top of the agenda as lawmakers return this week will be the annual budget bills, which must be passed to keep the government running. So far, Congress has sent only two of the 13 spending measures to the White House.

The GOP wants to avoid a budget showdown at all costs. Ornstein and other political analysts say the GOP's biggest fear is a replay of the 1995 government shutdown, which cost Republicans dearly in public opinion polls.

"We can't try to out-communicate the president on these (budget) issues because we always lose," said Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau. "So we need to get things done as quickly as possible . . . and just get out of here."

The GOP's desire to avoid bloodshed gives Democrats a key advantage in negotiations, and they hope Clinton will use it to hold out for his priorities.

House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-St. Louis County, said Clinton should negotiate in good faith but fight aggressively for the increases he wants in education and health care spending, among other things.

"If (the Republicans) are willing to come to the table and come halfway, he'll be there to meet them," Gephardt said. "But he's not going to make a deal just to get a deal."

Even if that means a long, drawn-out fight, Democrats think it will work to their advantage.

"Whenever the spotlight is on the House, it reminds people that they want change," said Erik Smith, a spokesman for the House Democrats campaign arm. "We're in the catbird's seat."

In the Senate, lawmakers will also begin debating legislation this week that would grant China permanent normal trade status, part of a sweeping trade agreement that will bring China into the World Trade Organization. The House has passed the bill. And while it is expected to win Senate approval, there will still be vocal opposition from lawmakers who are critical of China's human rights record and labor allies who worry it that will cost U.S. jobs.

But the real question mark hangs over a bevy of other proposals, such as HMO reform, an increase in the minimum wage, and gun control, which have been in legislative limbo for months.

These issues, which are popular with voters, put lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in a quandary: Republicans have generally opposed these bills, but passing them now would rob Democrats of potent campaign issues. It would also blunt any Democratic criticism that Republicans are running a "do-nothing" Congress.

For that same reason, Democrats may not be eager to compromise on, for example, a patients' bill of rights, because it would be one less issue for them to harp on when they hit the campaign trail.

"One problem is that the House Democrats are going to put a lot of pressure on the president not to negotiate," said Feehery, Hastert's spokesman. "Mr. Gephardt wants to get nothing done this year, and that's a big concern."

Gephardt dismisses the charge that he will obstruct the process. "That's just their way of explaining why they haven't done anything," he said. "They can't blame themselves, so they blame us."

Still, Gephardt said he's not optimistic that the parties will be able to resolve their differences over managed care reform or other key issues. "They've been dragging their feet on these issues for the last two years," he said of the GOP leadership. "They really don't want to do them."

He said Hastert's proposal on the minimum wage and a tax cut provides a glimmer of hope, although he still criticized it as an election-year ploy.

"We made the proposal two years ago (to raise the minimum wage by $ 1)," Gephardt said. "Now they're finally, reluctantly dragging themselves to it at the 11th hour on the eve of the election because they're reading the polls."

LOAD-DATE: September 3, 2000