10-07-2000

POLITICS: When Local Trumps National

The notion that "all politics is local" isn't just a cliche this
year. In many tight House races, the adage is as true as ever.


Sure, George W. Bush and Al Gore emphasize national issues, from Medicare
and prescription drug prices to gun control and national security. In
turn, national reporters often frame Election 2000 as a battle over the
big issues. Yet the party that gains control of the House will have
accomplished that feat by winning a smattering of widely scattered
contests-contests that are often won or lost on local, rather than
national, issues.


In some districts, voters' choices will depend heavily on debates about
local job growth, suburban sprawl, or transportation projects. In other
cases, the balance can be tipped by turnout rates influenced by the
presence of other candidates or referendums on the ballot.


Consider Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District, held by second-term
Republican Anne Northup. This fall, Northup faces state Rep. Eleanor
Jordan, an African-American. Although the two candidates have talked about
national issues, some of their most attention-grabbing moves have dealt
with more-local matters. For instance, Northup's first television ad
against Jordan took Jordan to task for voting to raise her own pay as a
legislator. It also showed footage of her on the legislative floor telling
her colleagues: "I urge you to pass this bill. Let's get on with it.
I have a fund-raiser at 6 o'clock, and I want to get out of
here."


A proposed city-county merger could also have an impact. A series of
racially tinged battles between the Louisville police department and the
mayor's office has heightened racial tension in Northup's district-a
factor that could prompt an unusually large turnout by suburbanites
opposed to merging the city and the county. And a big turnout by
suburbanites could help Northup.


To be sure, some races are more nationalized than others. A lot depends on
whether national Republican or Democratic themes are likely to play well
in a given district. Four of the hottest House races in California provide
a distinct contrast: the open seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Tom Campbell
and the seats being defended by endangered Republican Reps. James E.
Rogan, Steven T. Kuykendall, and Brian P. Bilbray.


Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book,
said that the Kuykendall and Bilbray races have taken on a nationalized
character, whereas the Campbell open seat and the Rogan re-election bid
have a more localized flavor. The difference, Hoffenblum said, stems from
the different dynamics in the districts.


Kuykendall, who represents a ring of southern Los Angeles suburbs, and
Bilbray, who represents a portion of San Diego, are running against
moderate Democratic women. In both districts, moderate, independent-minded
suburbanites are considered key. As a result, the incumbents and
challengers are trying to portray themselves as in tune with the
mainstream on such critical national issues as health care and
education.


By contrast, Hoffenblum said, Democratic voters are multiplying so fast in
the districts held by Campbell and Rogan that both must be considered
"borrowed" seats for the GOP. In that environment, he said, GOP
candidates have little choice but to soft-pedal their party's national
message.


Florida contests also show signs of taking local cues. A spat emerged when
the National Republican Congressional Committee placed TV advertisements
attacking Linda Chapin, the Democrat running for the seat being vacated by
GOP Rep. Bill McCollum. The commercials tag Chapin as "soft on
convicts" because as Orange County chairwoman, she allowed the county
jail director to install cable television in correctional facilities.
(Three Florida television stations pulled ads after Chapin accused them of
being misleading, but the NRCC continued to run a slightly changed version
of the ad.)


Other House races around the country have gotten a boost from factors that
have little to do with the national political scene. For instance,
Democrat Dianne Byrum, who is in the race to succeed Democratic Rep.
Deborah Ann Stabenow in Michigan's 8th District, could be helped by
Democratic-leaning teachers turning out against a school voucher
initiative. The teachers' union strongly opposes the ballot
measure.


In some districts, a mix of national and local themes has prevailed. In
Nevada, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley has talked about prescription drug
prices and health care, while her opponent, GOP state Sen. Jon Porter, has
attacked Berkley's stances on tax issues, said political analyst Jon
Ralston of Las Vegas. Yet one of the biggest issues has been whether
Nevada should become the nation's permanent repository of nuclear waste-an
ongoing battle with significant local impact.


In Washington, both national parties' intense focus on a few contested
seats has had a nationalizing effect.


"You have all of these imported guns from the parties trying to make
candidates sound their national themes," said Joel Connelly, a
national political correspondent with the Seattle
Post-Intelligencer.


At a recent debate between Democrat Rick Larsen and Republican John
Koster, Connelly said he "got the feeling that if either candidate
offered an original thought, the candidate would be immediately caned by
their handlers. Local issues will certainly influence campaigns here, but
we do have far more nationalized campaigns in this state than we used
to."


Louis Jacobson

National Journal