03-25-2000

POLITICS: Will Gore Be Running on Empty?

A lot of Republicans see gasoline prices shooting up and say, "Aha!
It's 1979 all over again! We can turn Bill Clinton into Jimmy Carter, and
the election is ours!" Is it?


Can they?


The United States is a nation of suburbs. The country runs on cheap
gasoline. When Americans had to wait in line to buy gas back in the 1970s,
or when they were told they could buy it only on certain days, it very
nearly caused a revolution. President Carter called it a
"malaise," which it certainly was for him. Now the average price
of gas is more than $1.50 a gallon nationwide and is nearing $2.00 a
gallon in some parts of the country. That, along with rising interest
rates and dizzying fluctuations in the stock market, looks like a clear
and present danger to Vice President Al Gore's election.


His opponent sees an opening. "I am considering calling for a
temporary decrease in the Clinton-Gore gas tax increase," George W.
Bush said earlier this month. Sounds reasonable enough, except that GOP
congressional leaders were unable to rally their troops behind such a tax
cut. Seems the majority isn't quite willing to give up all the public
works funding that comes out of the Clinton-Gore gas tax. Another opponent
sees a conspiracy. "We defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and they
conspire against us," Pat Buchanan said on television. "What
does Bush have to say about this? Nothing. He agrees fundamentally with
Clinton."


That's not quite true. The Texas governor contends that a President named
Bush would know how to deal with this problem. "I can't understand
how the Administration can't get co-operation from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
and Mexico," Bush said. "It is not so long ago that a President
Bush helped Kuwait."


"Aha!" Buchanan might say. "It's a conspiracy between
former President Bush and the Kuwaitis to get his son
elected."


If it is, it's not working too well. By nearly 2-to-1, Americans see the
rise in gas prices as a temporary fluctuation rather than a more permanent
change. People feel the same way about the stock market. Even before last
week's record recovery, the public strongly endorsed the view that the
stock market was going through a normal fluctuation, not a long-term
downturn. What explains this resilient optimism? Prosperity, most of all.
Yes, $2.00-a-gallon gasoline is still a shock to most Americans,
especially because gasoline has the most visible price in the economy,
plastered across every roadside. But in real dollar terms, gasoline prices
still are lower now than they were 20 years ago. And Americans are making
a lot more money than they were 20 years ago. Witness the fact that sales
of gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles seem impervious to gasoline prices.
And then there's that old temptress, rosy scenario. After a record
nine-year boom, an overwhelming majority of Americans-86 percent-believe
the nation's economy is in good shape. And it's in very good shape,
according to more than 40 percent-the highest figure since Clinton took
office.


The better people think the economy is doing, the less worried they are
about gasoline prices, interest rates, and the stock market. Especially
because the Clinton Administration, in the person of Energy Secretary Bill
Richardson, seems to be doing something. Richardson reported: "I am
going to countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico, Venezuela, Norway. A
lot of these countries are our friends. We have mutual interests. I say to
them, it's good for you and good for us to have stable oil
prices."


We'll find out the results next week, when the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel meets in Vienna, Austria, to
discuss raising production quotas. Two non-OPEC members, Mexico and
Norway, have already indicated a willingness to increase production. Two
leading OPEC members, Saudi Arabia and Iran, may also be receptive to U.S.
entreaties, especially since the Administration has offered to soften its
hard line toward Iran.


A decision to increase production would probably not have much impact on
U.S. gasoline prices until the fall-too late for the summer driving season
but just in time for the election. It could also raise Secretary
Richardson's profile as a possible running mate for Al Gore. As a former
U.N. ambassador, Richardson has strong international credentials that
would be further enhanced by a successful oil mission.


Richardson also happens to be Mexican-American and has strong ties to the
Latino community, even though he did not make his political career as an
ethnic politician. The first Hispanic to run for national office could
energize a lot of new voters in key states such as California, Florida,
New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and even Texas, which is otherwise a
hopeless cause for Gore. There's a lot at stake at next week's OPEC
meeting politically as well as economically.


For the time being, however, American voters don't seem to be worried.
They assume good times, just like they assumed bad times in the 1970s.
It's the " `What, me worry?' economy," and it's saving Al
Gore.


What did in Jimmy Carter in the 1970s wasn't gas prices, exactly. It was
gas lines. In fact, higher prices were the solution to gas lines. Once
Americans started to pay more for gas, the lines disappeared.


There's a lesson in that. Americans accept price rationing, even if they
grumble about high prices. They will not accept bureaucratic rationing. If
we end up with gas lines, Gore's a goner.


William Schneider

National Journal