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Copyright 2000 Chicago Sun-Times, Inc.  
Chicago Sun-Times

March 07, 2000, TUESDAY, MIDWEST

SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 1

LENGTH: 560 words

HEADLINE: Gasoline prices to soar; 
Gas prices could go to $ 2 per gallon

BYLINE: BY H. JOSEF HEBERT

DATELINE: WASHINGTON

BODY:
Already at nearly $ 1.50 a gallon or more, gasoline prices are likely to jump 20 cents by the end of May and soar even higher as the summer driving season takes hold, the government said Monday.

The oil exporting countries may boost production soon to ease the acute shortage that has seen crude prices climb to nearly $ 32 a barrel, but the additional oil, even if pumped immediately, would be too late to keep gasoline prices from rising, according to a report from the Energy Department.

No matter what production decisions are made, "retail gasoline prices are poised to surge to unprecedented levels before the spring is out," said the report. It said U.S. gasoline stocks were alarmingly low. Despite the high prices, motorists are giving little sign that they are changing travel plans or rethinking their zeal for gas-guzzling cars and sport utility vehicles.

"We don't think it's going to cause people to stop taking long-distance driving vacations," said Geoff Sundstrom, spokesman for AAA.

"The economy is strong and people have the money to go on vacation," he said.

But that may change if gasoline hits $ 2 or if supplies become tight, leading to lines at gas stations, he said.

In Albany, N.Y., Steven Hank, a computer specialist who commutes 70 miles a day, said he's worried gasoline might hit $ 2. Already he's spending $ 250 a month on gasoline, he said, and "I don't want to pay that much."

But Devin Dangles, who drove from New Jersey to Washington, D.C., on Monday, said "people should just quit complaining" about the higher cost of travel. "You don't have a choice, anyway," he said.

The Energy Department said that average gasoline prices, currently about $ 1.46 a gallon, would increase as much as 20 cents by the beginning of summer and go to $ 1.80 a gallon during the peak summer driving periods.

The analysis cautioned that those are national averages and that prices could spike much higher in some parts of the country, including California, which historically has had higher prices, making $ 2-a-gallon regular gasoline a probability in some areas.

Oil prices, meanwhile, moved Monday to another nine-year high.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery settled at $ 32.18. That was the highest closing price on the New York Mercantile Exchange since Nov. 29, 1990, when thousands of U.S. troops were in the Middle East, preparing for the Gulf War.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet March 27 to decide whether to pump more oil. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico already have said they will recommend some production increases and another major producer, Kuwait, has signaled a willingness to go along.

The government analysis examined several scenarios of increased production, but none of those scenarios would have an impact on gasoline prices through the summer, when demand historically is high.

There is no certainty all the countries even will agree to boost production. Iran and Iraq, which together account for 8 percent of the world's oil production, have argued against increases.

The Energy Department analysis assumes Iraq will continue to supply about 2.3 million barrels a day, and more later in the year. But Iraq has threatened to slow its production as a way to get the United Nations to ease its economic sanctions.

GRAPHIC: ASSOCIATED PRESS

LOAD-DATE: March 08, 2000




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