Copyright 2000 / Los Angeles Times
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June 24, 2000, Saturday, Home Edition
SECTION: Part A; Part 1; Page 1; National Desk
LENGTH: 1610 words
HEADLINE:
IN RACE, RISING GAS PRICES ARE MAKE-OR-BRAKE ISSUE;
CAMPAIGN: SOARING COSTS LEAVE MIDWESTERNERS PUMPED UP TO VOTE. GORE AND BUSH
TRY TO WOO THEM.
BYLINE: ERIC SLATER, TIMES STAFF
WRITER
DATELINE: WILMETTE, Ill.
BODY:
In any other part of the country, the marquee
at the downtown Amoco station might be puzzling on several levels. Unleaded gas,
it says, is going for "$ Z.29" a gallon.
Folks here know this station,
like so many others across the Great Plains, has simply run out of 2s.
With the presidential election looming just the other side of the summer
driving season, gas prices in parts of the Midwest remain 50,
60, even 70 cents higher than in most of the country, even after beginning to
drop on Friday. And it is the voters of the Midwest--cabbies now working four
extra hours a day to cover gas costs, parents canceling family vacations--who
may well pick the next president.
In this North Chicago suburb, a swing
district in a swing state known for its well-educated and politically astute
electorate, exasperated motorists said they were nearing the point of forgoing
party allegiance if the other candidate could bring down the prices.
"We
usually go Republican, but we're willing to go Democrat if they can get this
done," said one woman as she pumped in 9.1 gallons for her $ 20 bill. "Whichever
candidate can lower these prices is going to get the office."
Not since
the gas crunch of 1979--when a hyperbolic New York congressman told Energy
Department officials, "You are on the verge of bringing down a presidency"--has
the cost of a gallon of gas become such a combustible political issue.
But 1979 was not an election year. And Jimmy Carter was already in
serious trouble for reasons that had nothing to do with the price of gas.
In what is shaping up to be a close contest between Vice President Al
Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, prices that remain high could prove to be a
pivotal factor in the election, analysts say.
So with a gallon averaging
just over $ 2 in Milwaukee and $ 2.13 in Chicago--but with many drivers paying $
2.29 and $ 2.39--compared with $ 1.63 nationwide, both candidates have begun
assigning blame.
Like during the Arab oil embargo of 1973 and the gas
crunch of 1979, the Democrats, led by Gore, are hinting at possible
price-gouging on the part of the Republican-friendly oil industry. They asked
the Federal Trade Commission to investigate and are reminding almost anyone who
will listen that the Texas governor is a former oilman himself and has raised
millions from friends in the oil industry.
Bush and the Republicans,
meanwhile, are blaming the Clinton administration's energy policy and myriad
environmental regulations, including a mandate that requires a cleaner-burning
blend of gas and corn-based ethanol in Midwest cities such as Chicago and
Milwaukee.
Although Bush has remained relatively cautious in his
rhetoric, Gore has been more direct, saying the extreme price differences
"suggest that big oil is gouging American consumers."
No wonder,
analysts say: Gore has the most to lose.
"This is manna from heaven for
the Republican Party," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute for
Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. "This is the wedge they need to get into
the economic issue--something to point out that things are not perfect with the
economy. Forty-two dollars to fill up a tank is a good place to start. And the
fact that it's happening in the Midwest, which is being viewed as ground zero in
this race, could be a serious problem for the Democrats."
Asking voters
across the country, "Are you better off now than you were eight years ago?" Gore
has campaigned heavily on his role in an administration overseeing the greatest
economic growth in the nation's history. But across the crucial Midwest this
week came signs that might cause voters to hesitate when answering that
question.
On Tuesday, Indiana Gov. Frank L. O'Bannon said his state
would suspend its 5% gasoline tax beginning July 1. On Wednesday, Gov. George
Ryan said Illinois may do the same, saving motorists about 10 cents a gallon.
On Thursday, Therese Heyek of Wilmette paid $ 55.80 for the 24 gallons
of regular to fill up her family's Ford Expedition. That was just for getting
around town, though. The Heyeks had already canceled their summer vacation.
"We were going to take a trip, driving to St. Louis," the registered
Democrat said. "But we just can't afford it with these prices."
At some
stations in Chicago and other areas, prices dropped as much as 12 cents a gallon
by late Friday and will likely continue to fall, experts say. But they will rise
again, many predict, and sooner rather than later.
A study by the
independent Congressional Research Service blames about half of the spike in
Midwest prices on problems at two oil pipelines in the region, the other half on
new federal clean-air regulations mandating reformulated gas that is more
difficult to make, especially as refineries transition to the gasoline-ethanol
mix.
Many experts agree with oil executives, who say the price hikes are
the result not of collusion or malfeasance but of the complex environmental
regulations requiring refiners to produce dozens of types of gasoline for
different cities and different seasons.
And over the last 20 years, the
experts point out, both Democratic and Republican administrations have shaped
energy policies heavily dependent on foreign oil and have allowed oil companies
to consolidate and increase their influence.
"Sure oil companies are
making huge amounts of money, but they are prospering because of policies
created by both parties," said Ben Brockwell, editor of the Oil Price
Information Service. "We've had a lazy energy policy for over 20 years, and the
reason politicians haven't done anything about it is because crude oil has been
relatively cheap."
If prices stay high through the election, Bush,
despite being from an oil-rich state that benefits when consumers suffer, is
likely to gain the most, political analysts believe.
However, if prices
drop quickly and precipitously and the Clinton administration is viewed as
having reined them in, the vice president may benefit, whether or not he
influenced the decline, said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg
Political Report.
Regardless of who wins in November, however, the next
president is likely to face serious price fluctuations in everything from gas to
diesel to heating oil.
Back at the Amoco, Heyek said that despite
heading into a vacationless summer, it wasn't today's gas prices that most
concerned her.
"I'm pessimistic about what will happen after the
election," she said. "They're doing all they can to stem this now, but I wonder
about after November."
Rising Midwest Gas Prices
Gasoline prices in the Midwest have soared, as they have everywhere, but
they have now surpassed California and national averages.
*
Prices for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, Jan. 3-June 19
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC: Rising Midwest Gas Prices, ROB
HERNANDEZ / Los Angeles Times
LOAD-DATE: June 24, 2000
