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Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company  
The New York Times

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March 23, 2000, Thursday, Late Edition - Final

SECTION: Section B; Page 1; Column 3; Metropolitan Desk 

LENGTH: 918 words

HEADLINE: Gas Prices Are Rising, but Not the Tempers, Yet

BYLINE:  By TERRY PRISTIN 

BODY:
This is not the gasoline shortage of the 70's.

True, the per-gallon cost has been going up so fast that the price placards at the curb seem to flip over as fast as the digital readout on the pump. A gallon of regular in the New York metropolitan region cost an average of $1.44 last month, up from $1.06 last year. Prices in the city itself are even higher. Some bus and courier companies have applied surcharges to compensate. Some motorists are buying regular instead of premium, or using the car only at night or taking public transportation to work. But no one, it seems, is going out of business.

And instead of the fistfights and fender-benders that marked the long gas lines of the early 70's, drivers are grumbling but bearing it. After all, at least there's plenty of gas to buy.

But some people are cutting back.

Mary Szumski, a cabdriver from Brooklyn, limits herself to $12 worth of premium at a time for her personal car, a gas-guzzling 1981 Jaguar, and rides the bus when she goes to Manhattan to shop. But she is not even thinking about getting a more efficient car. Like many people, she does not expect the high prices to last more than a few months.

"It's only for a short time, so it's O.K.," she said as she pumped $1.79-a-gallon premium gas into her tank at a station in Red Hook, Brooklyn. "And you've got to pay it. You have no choice."

Dmitri Serebryakov, a limousine driver from Brooklyn, said that having to pay more to fill up twice a day "hits me right in the pocket" since he has to absorb his fuel costs. So whenever he is in New Jersey, where gas prices are lower than in New York, he makes a point of gassing up.

But in southern New Jersey, Ed Crane, of Medford, said he was commuting to Philadelphia only in his Ford Taurus. "Our other car is an S.U.V.," he said, "and we don't take that out at all these days because of the prices."

If the spike in prices does indeed prove brief, the local economy is not expected to suffer seriously, forecasters say. Most expect prices to rise to as much as $2 a gallon by summer and then begin dropping by fall.

"As long as it doesn't seem as if prices are going to continue to go up," said David Wyss, the chief economist at the market forecasting arm of Standard & Poor's, "we're in good shape."

Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a nonprofit research organization, said most businesses did not alter their strategy based on short spurts of price increases. "Clearly, there are places where the impact is more immediate," he said, "but across the board, I don't see a big, big change out there."

Bravo Messenger Service in Teaneck, N.J., is one of the businesses that has been seriously affected, and its customers now pay a 5 percent surcharge. "Most of them are pretty good about it," said Jeff Levy. The higher fuel costs have actually been good for business, Mr. Levy said, because people are more likely to consider hiring his service for office errands.

For more than a month, Essex County commuters traveling on the DeCamp Bus Lines have been charged 30 cents more per ride because of the rise in diesel fuel costs. But diesel prices, which are tied to the demand for home heating oil, are beginning to decline. If that trend continues, said Gary P. Pard, a vice president at DeCamp, the surcharge may be eliminated by April 30.

But there will be no surcharge -- or service reduction -- on buses operated by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which expects to spend an extra $9.2 million on diesel fuel this year, said Albert W. O'Leary, an authority spokesman. Though unwelcome, the additional expense is a relatively small part of the agency's $3 billion operating budget, he pointed out.

As for cabs, the New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission is in the "initial stages" of examining whether a surcharge is warranted, said Diane McGrath McKechnie, the commission chairwoman.

Usually, when delivery costs go up, the prices of goods and services also go up. But John L. Wieting, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' regional commissioner for the New York metropolitan region, said there was no indication that other prices were rising -- not so far, at least. "We have yet to see a surge in prices outside the energy sector," he said.

Mr. Wieting speculated that many businesses might be reluctant to pass on the costs in so competitive a marketplace. "There's a great deal of resistance on the part of consumers to higher prices," he said.

And there's no question that despite the robust economy, many people will go out of their way for a bargain. The Wawa market on Route 70 and Eayerstown Road in Medford, N.J., has been mobbed ever since a local news program reported that it had the lowest prices in Burlington County, said Jen Garron, the manager. "It just gets a little more hectic every day," she said.

In New York, officials said, the citywide average for a gallon of regular gasoline is up to $1.65. But they urged consumers to shop around, since prices vary. According to a survey by the Department of Consumer Affairs, the Gasland station at 425 Vanderbilt Avenue on Staten Island charges $1.57 a gallon for regular gasoline, the lowest in the city. (The highest is $1.74 at the Mobil station at 1132 York Avenue, in Manhattan.)

Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has seized on surging gas prices as a major theme for his Senate campaign, said "ivory tower" economists have underestimated their effect.

"They don't have to pay the bills," he said.

 http://www.nytimes.com

GRAPHIC: Chart: "Rising Gas Prices"
The citywide average monthly price for a gallon of regular gasoline has increased by more than 50 cents since the beginning of 1999. The chart shows the price per gallon of regular gasoline since January 1999. Data not available for Nov.-Dec. '99. (Source: City Dept. of Consumer Affairs)
      

LOAD-DATE: March 23, 2000




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