| Two Possible
Futures for the Internet by Dwight Patel on 11/19/99 of Association of Concerned Taxpayers Topic: Taxation, Internet Access | |
| I These are exciting times for the Internet industry. It is a growing field, just in its infancy today. The Internet today may be where television was in the 1940s. One in every three new jobs created is within the Internet, and the other two are results of the Internet boom. The Internet is already changing the way we live today by the growth of commerce and education. Just think what tomorrow will bring! I for one will plan my vacation and make the majority of my purchases online. My nine-year-old nephews already use the Net to do research for projects in school. They are able to learn about issues and historical facts through multiple sources, not just what the teacher says and what is in the textbook. All of the positives of the Internet can be crushed if politicians in Washington and in many state governments have their way. They will bring the growth of the Net to screeching halt and turn the Internet into a place only the privileged few can afford. Here are a couple of scenarios illustrating the possible futures of the Internet. We will have to choose which scenario we want. First Possible Future The first future for the Internet is bright. In this future people around the world do everything from sending e-mail to conducting multi-million dollar business deals online. We see students in rural areas benefiting from the Internet: kids in a village school in Africa learning about space travel from a NASA scientist in America and kids in rural West Virginia learning French from a French teacher in Paris, France. In this bright Internet future, the need for expensive business travel is reduced. The easy access and high speed of the Net allows businessmen to organize web conference calls for face-to-face meetings without leaving the office. Millions of dollars in business travel expenses are saved. Families spend more time together as the need for an hour-long commute is eliminated because the Internet provides the ability to work from home. Parents are there when the kids come home from school, and the television as babysitter disappears. Entertainment is revolutionized as the Internet allows us to view what we want, when we want. As Vice President Al "Father of the Internet" Gore said, we can watch "Gilligan's Island "on demand, but we can also see movie and dramatic classics from Shakespeare to Charlie Chaplin, and we can order up educational films and programs at the sweep of a mouse. No more being held hostage by TV executives who put unfriendly programming on the air during the family hour. The ease of online commerce eliminates that pesky telephone "hold." Instead of waiting for a ticket clerk, or wondering if the travel agent has found the best fare, we can do it all: plan the itinerary, buy the ticket, print out the e-ticket and take it directly to the gate, where we get our boarding pass. Unburdened by heavy government regulation and taxation, commerce on the Internet increases rapidly, creating millions of jobs, both in the United States and worldwide. People now buy everything from books and music to cars and homes on the Internet. Senior citizens shop online for everything from medicines to groceries. Manufacturing increases to meet the demand and unemployment continues to fall. An untrammeled Internet has international implications as well, raising the standard of living in the Third World and spreading crucial knowledge of the best health practices and practical home economy. Children in the developed Western countries learn directly about other cultures from those living in those cultures. Inner city school children are exposed to fine arts from around the world. "Distance learning" provides the best teachers to children everywhere as the best suburban schools share teachers with other schools around the country and around world. Children learn about communism from victims of communism and about the Panama Canal from people living on the banks of Gatun Lake. Second Possible Future After the three-year moratorium on Internet taxation ends, the politicians begin to milk the cash cow they have been eyeing so greedily. Big spenders rush new taxes for the Internet into law. First they tax the Internet Service Providers (ISPs), who simply pass the tax on to their subscribers in the form of higher subscription prices. This increase is enough that middle to lower-income households on fixed incomes, such as many senior citizens, can no longer afford basic Internet access. Small business owners are the next group affected, losing their commercial Internet connection because of the higher costs. With their reduced Internet presence, small businesses must rely on the old fashioned and less efficient mail order and toll-free telephone numbers They do less business, and must downsize to survive One year after the ISP tax has been introduced, many smaller, local ISPs are filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The decreased competition allows the fewer and larger ISPs to raise prices, but at the same time the decreased Internet use cuts into the tax revenues fueling government tax and spenders. They decide to raise the Net tax once more. This double whammy begins to drive upper middle class households off the Net and pushes medium size companies to cut back. Unemployment is going up and the economy has had no significant growth since the Internet Tax was introduced. As the Internet shrinks from its flourishing heyday in the 1990s to an all time low, businesses that were selling goods worldwide are now selling only in local markets. Simply put, there are fewer goods being sold. Manufacturing jobs are being cut. We are now in a full blown recession. The government is subsidizing the few ISPs that have survived and there is talk of government-provided Internet services. Dwight Patel serves on the Board of the Association of Concerned Taxpayers and is the Senior Technology Analyst, Association of Concerned Taxpayers © 1999 |
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