05-27-2000

POLITICS: Another Open Seat, Courtesy of the Ripple

What keeps political junkies coming back for more is the way politics
keeps changing. A single event, or one decision by a candidate, can
significantly alter the dynamics of a race. Equally important, what
happens in one race can create a ripple effect that alters other contests.
Such is the case with New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani's decision
to drop out of the New York Senate race.


Within hours of Giuliani's announcement, Republicans filled the void with
Rep. Rick A. Lazio, who had considered entering the race last year but
stepped aside at the urging of Republican leaders. Although Giuliani's
withdrawal makes the race against first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton less
entertaining, it doesn't make it less competitive. Despite low name
recognition, Lazio trailed Clinton by just 14 points (32 percent to 46
percent) in a Zogby International poll taken shortly after Giuliani's
announcement. More telling is that the first lady's support was under 50
percent.


Although Lazio is a moderate on many issues, he is more acceptable to many
conservative Republicans than Giuliani. Lazio supports some abortion
rights, but his backing of a ban on "partial-birth" abortion has
won him the support of the state's Conservative Party. Giuliani was not
going to get that support, and that could have proved costly in a tight
race. There is little question that Lazio has a great deal of work ahead
of him. He needs to boost his name recognition and raise money at a
breathtaking pace-$3.5 million a month, according to some estimates.
However, early polling indicates that this race is still winnable for
Republicans.


The repercussions of Giuliani's withdrawal are also being felt in other
races. Democrats have been breathlessly promoting their chances of winning
Lazio's House seat. Still, the Long Island-based district is not a slam
dunk for Democrats.


Located wholly within Suffolk County, New York's 2nd District has a
Republican registration advantage, but Democrats have been able to find
success here in recent years and can certainly make this a highly
competitive race. Democrat Tom Downey, elected with the Watergate Class of
1974, represented this district for 18 years, and he often cruised to
re-election with more than 60 percent of the vote. But in 1992, Downey was
caught up in the House bank scandal (he had 151 overdrafts at the House
bank) and could not withstand the aggressive challenge of then-Suffolk
County legislator Lazio, who won 53 percent to 47 percent, even while
then-President Bush barely carried the district (he won by less than 2,000
votes). Democrats never put up a strong challenge to Lazio, although they
point out that other top-of-the-ticket candidates have run well in Lazio's
district. In 1996, Clinton won the district by 20 points (55 percent to 35
percent) over Bob Dole. But, even in his losing campaign in 1998,
then-Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, a Long Island native, won the district by five
points. Democrats argue that a solid showing by Al Gore will help offset
any coattails that Lazio might have.


Until candidates begin to emerge, however, it is far too early to begin
handicapping the race. At this point, three Democrats are being mentioned:
Suffolk County Legislature Minority Leader David Bishop, state Assemblyman
Robert Sweeney and Huntington Town Board Majority Leader Steve Israel.
Speculation about GOP candidates has centered on Assemblyman Phil Boyle,
Islip Town Supervisor Peter McGowan and Assemblyman Thomas Barraga. Filing
does not close until July 20, but both parties are clearly scrambling to
make sure that their candidates are up and running as soon as possible. A
bigger potential problem for the parties is the Sept. 12 primary date,
which is only seven weeks before Election Day. Republican insiders say
that the GOP establishment here will ensure that there is no primary
contest, as it did in the 1st Congressional District, where the Republican
leadership rallied around Brookhaven Supervisor Felix Grucci.


The 2nd District is the kind of contest where the quality of the
candidates will matter greatly. A flawed nominee, a contentious primary,
or a last-minute entry could make the difference.


Charlie Cook

National Journal