05-27-2000

POLITICS: Into the Pressure Cooker

The conventional wisdom in New York these days is that Hillary Rodham
Clinton has found her footing as a candidate for the Senate. At the least,
she has passed the point at which she alienates Jewish voters one day and
Puerto Ricans the next. She knows Troy from Massena, Elmira from Garden
City.


Her supporters argue that the passage of time has eased the reaction
against the first lady's interjecting herself into the politics of a state
in which she never lived or worked. Her assiduous campaigning upstate, the
theory goes, has made her a familiar figure in such places as Buffalo and
Rochester, Binghamton and Watertown.


Now the withdrawal of New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has altered
the picture in ways her strategists welcome. Rather than being a contest
of strong personalities, the Democrats contend, the campaign will turn on
the usual issues of social and fiscal policy-good news in a traditionally
Democratic state.


It is not that simple, however. At 42, Rep. Rick A. Lazio has 17 years in
public life as a prosecutor, county legislator, and member of Congress. He
won his seat in the House of Representatives in 1992 by defeating a
popular nine-term Democrat, Tom Downey. So when Democrats talk about the
"stature gap" between Hillary Clinton and Lazio, they are really
talking about only a celebrity gap.


By most measures, the Long Island Republican has the kind of political
history and resume that can win in New York, despite the 3-to-2 Democratic
advantage in voter registration. He is conservative on fiscal issues but
moderate on social questions. He supports with some limits both gun
control and abortion rights. On the latter issue, his opposition to the
so-called partial-birth procedure and to public funding puts him with the
clear majority of voters, according to opinion polls.


Because Lazio is so little known, the Clinton campaign has made a
predictable and prompt effort to define him in the most unflattering
terms. He is being depicted as a stooge of former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich and a supporter of the Contract With America that helped
Republicans win control of the House in 1994. But this tactic is not
particularly promising. Voters will wonder about the relevance of
Gingrich. And Lazio can defend the contract's planks, all of which won
approval ratings of 70 percent or more before they were unveiled.


Lazio is probably better positioned than Giuliani to win big upstate,
where any mayor of New York City is regarded as a dubious commodity. And
Lazio shares an advantage of Giuliani's: His Italian-American heritage can
help in the cities along the Erie Canal and New York Thruway, from Buffalo
on the west through Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, and Albany. His eight
years in the House is an obvious asset in holding Republican voters on
Long Island.


Lazio enters the campaign at something of a disadvantage in money for
television commercials. He has less than $4 million on hand, perhaps only
one-third as much as Clinton. But any Republican with a realistic
possibility of eliminating the last of the Clintons from American
political life will find many contributors willing to help. Besides, a
campaign that is assured intensive press coverage doesn't require as much
money. Lazio may be unfamiliar to many New Yorkers today, but he won't be
for long.


The key to the race, as is almost always the case in elections today, is
the judgment voters make about the personal qualities of the candidates.
And in New York, the late stages of a statewide campaign are unusually
intense. The story changes every day, sometimes twice a day with each
different news cycle. The successful candidate is usually the one who
deals best with the pressure.


So far, Clinton has been able to get away with a cosseted campaign. As
first lady, she is surrounded by the Secret Service and an entourage. Of
late, she has given more interviews than she did in the early phases of
her much advertised "listening" campaign, but she has not
demonstrated the ability to think on her feet and react quickly and
forcefully to new situations. After seven years in the protective
environment of the White House, the transition to candidate has not been
comfortable. She clearly lacks the skills of another celebrity candidate
from a different time, Nelson A. Rockefeller, or, for that matter, those
of Robert F. Kennedy when he also faced the carpetbagger problem 36 years
ago.


And the Democrats are kidding themselves if they believe that Hillary
Clinton has overcome the baggage of being a newcomer to the state and the
wife of Bill Clinton. On the contrary, voters are reminded of her
"special" situation every time she flies to New York on Air
Force One and every time the President shows up at her side.


There is a reason that even as Giuliani was in the process of political
self-immolation, the first lady's support remained well under 50 percent
in most surveys. There is a reason that Lazio received a respectable 31
percent in an instant poll last weekend in which three of four voters said
they


didn't know anything about him. The anyone-but-Hillary factor is real. The
question is whether Lazio can demonstrate he is a reasonable alternative
to someone from Arkansas.


Jack W. Germond and Jules Witcover

National Journal