POLITICS - Peeling Onions In the Big Apple

By Charlie Cook, National Journal
© National Journal Group Inc.
Saturday, June 05, 1999

	      Nearly all of the talk about the upcoming New York Senate 
race has focused on the possibility of a matchup between first 
lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and New York City Mayor Rudolph W. 
Giuliani. But don't overlook two other names: Rick A. Lazio and 
Michael R. Long. Lazio, 41, is a fourth-term GOP congressman from 
Long Isl and who is looking at running for the Senate as a 
Republican, and seeking the backing of the Conservative Party. 
And Long is the chairman of New York's Conservative Party. 
	     Why do Lazio and Long matter? Because even if 
conventional wisdom is correct, and Clinton and Giuliani face off 
in the general election, the presence of other candidates on the 
ballot could complicate matters. It is possible that Giuliani 
will get the Liberal Party endorsement, while Lazio nabs the 
support of the Conservative Party. The Right to Life Party could 
also nominate a candidate. Such a scenario would give Clinton an 
advantage. Then again, there's the chance that mischievous 
Republicans or Conservatives might entice a liberal minority 
Democrat such as the Rev. Al Sharpton to run as the candidate of 
the Independence Party. That would siphon votes away from 
Clinton. In short, the race promises to be like an onion: Peeling 
back one layer always reveals a new and completely different 
layer. 
	     First, a look at the state of play in New York. When the 
first lady and the President returned from their Amelia Island, 
Fla., vacation last weekend, the word around town was that ''all 
systems are go'' for her making a Senate race. As a first step, 
Mrs. Clinton is expected to announce the creation of an 
exploratory committee soon. The committee could raise money and 
pay for her travel costs to and around New York, thereby averting 
embarrassing stories about the first lady campaigning on the 
taxpayers' dime. 
	     Although Giuliani has already created an exploratory 
committee, he has not yet agreed to run. Some New York political 
insiders believe that there is a chance he won't. They argue that 
he could bow out by saying that he does not want to create an 
opening for liberal Mark Green, the city's public advocate, to 
succeed him as mayor and undo all that his administration has 
accomplished. Still, the betting here is that Giuliani is in the 
race to stay. 
	     The next question is whether Giuliani runs only as a 
Republican or also seeks the Liberal Party line on the ballot. 
Giuliani, who ran on both lines during his two successful mayoral 
bids in 1993 and 1997, is very close to Raymond B. Harding, the 
leader of the state Liberal Party, and has given city patronage 
jobs to a number of people with close ties to the Liberal Party. 
So the nomination is probably his for the asking. But there's a 
hitch: The Conservatives have an iron-clad policy of not 
endorsing anyone on the Liberal line. If Giuliani has the Liberal 
line, he need not apply for the Conservative one. 
	     Meanwhile, Lazio has moved aggressively around the state, 
meeting with county and local officials from both the Republican 
and Conservative Parties. Lazio has not announced his candidacy, 
but it certainly looks as if he's running. He sported a $ 1.8 
million campaign war chest as of the first of the year, and he's 
apparently raised about $ 500,000 since then. Although Lazio is 
hardly a hard-line conservative, he's closer to being one than 
Giuliani is. For instance, Lazio generally supports abortion 
rights, but is adamantly opposed to ''partial-birth'' abortions, 
and can be expected to contrast himself sharply with Giuliani on 
issues. 
	     If he runs, Lazio could also be expected to make much of 
the fact that Giuliani campaigned for Democratic Gov. Mario M. 
Cuomo's re-election in 1994. This did not endear him to many 
Republicans, including Gov. George E. Pataki, who beat Cuomo that 
year. But Lazio isn't in the race yet. Some speculate that he's 
waiting for assurances that Pataki will back him; others say that 
there's no way Pataki would go beyond passive encouragement 
before Lazio announces his candidacy and demonstrates that he 
deserves to be taken seriously. Everyone agrees that Pataki 
doesn't want to embarrass himself by backing a statewide 
candidate who gets steamrollered in the Republican primary by his 
archenemy. 
	     One other factor for Lazio to keep in mind: timing. If 
Lazio does run, he needs to get into the race before Giuliani 
does. Otherwise, Lazio will be seen as a spoiler who will 
accomplish little except splitting votes with Giuliani and 
ensuring the election of the first lady. If Lazio gets in first, 
he will arguably have the moral high ground. 
	     While no polls have pitted Giuliani against Lazio, 
there's no doubt that Giuliani starts out well ahead. The 
question is whether his lead will hold up in the face of charges 
from Lazio that ideological differences between the mayor and the 
first lady are more of style than of substance. By any standard, 
Giuliani is among the most liberal of Republican major 
officeholders in the nation. Furthermore, only about 13 percent 
of the statewide Republican vote comes from New York City, while 
much of the other 87 percent views the city as Sodom-and- 
Gomorrah-on-Hudson. There are plenty of Republicans who hated 
Giuliani for endorsing Cuomo, hated him for opposing the 
impeachment of President Clinton, and were appalled by his 
opposition to repealing the much-hated commuter tax in New York. 
Some insiders believe that Lazio can beat Giuliani in the primary 
and that a unified Republican and Conservative Party effort is 
the only way to beat Clinton. 
	     Enter Mike Long, who got into politics backing Barry 
Goldwater in 1964 and has been chairman of the state Conservative 
Party since 1988. Long is the undisputed leader of the party, 
jealously defending its role in the election process. He proudly 
points out that no Republican since former Sen. Jacob K. Javits 
in 1974 has won statewide in New York without the Conservative 
Party endorsement. (Javits ran on the Republican and Liberal 
Party lines.) And he notes that James L. Buckley was elected to 
the Senate on the Conservative line in 1970, beating Richard 
Ottinger, the Democrat, and Charles E. Goodell, who had both the 
Republican and Liberal lines. Long wants a winner, but not at the 
expense of the party's principles, one of which is opposition to 
partial-birth abortion. Those close to the Conservative Party say 
that Giuliani could win the Conservative nomination only if he 
promised to come closer to party dogma on issues such as partial- 
birth abortion and taxes. 
	     The procedure in New York is for the Conservative Party 
(as well as Liberal and Right to Life Parties) to hold a 
convention, in June 2000, at which delegates representing each of 
New York's 31 congressional districts will gather to select their 
party's candidate. Long could call a rump convention sooner, in, 
say, February, to signal the party's choice. Presumably, Long and 
other party leaders would not do so unless they were confident 
their candidate would win at the June convention. 
	     Whether they endorse Lazio may depend on his ability to 
show he's building momentum, which is not easy. Just ask Democrat 
Charles E. Schumer. During his 1998 bid for the Democratic 
nomination for Senate, Schumer languished in last place for a 
long time, despite significant spending on his part, before 
overtaking Mark Green and former Rep. Geraldine A. Ferraro. 
Another factor working against Lazio: Given his moderate voting 
record, the Conservative Party might well favor a more 
conservative alternative if one emerges. 
	     So what does Long say about Lazio? He notes that Lazio 
''has had our endorsement in the past and is clearly moving 
around the state, meeting with Conservative leaders, and visibly 
is the only individual who, while not a candidate, is trying to 
win the support of the Conservative Party.'' Translation: Lazio 
is doing what he needs to do, but must commit to the race soon 
and show he can be competitive. 
	     With most polls showing Giuliani and Clinton running even 
in two-way matchups, Clinton's chances may hinge more on what 
Lazio and Long do than on how she performs in the campaign.