06-16-2001
FOREIGN AFFAIRS: New President, Same Old Cuba Policy
Betrayal is the founding myth of the Cuban-American community. The Bay of
Pigs is remembered by Cuban exiles not as the half-hearted effort of a
divided U.S. government, but as a purposeful betrayal by President
Kennedy. More recently, they viewed the sudden end to the Elian Gonzalez
saga as a new betrayal, this time by President Clinton, who had won
Florida in 1996 with Cuban-American votes earned through the promise of a
tougher policy on Havana.
To Cuban-Americans, the Elian melodrama offered voters a black-and-white
example of how things would change in a Republican Administration. After
the Clinton Justice Department defied the Miami crowds and seized the boy
in a military-style assault, George W. Bush condemned the
"chilling" raid and vowed that he would have never returned
Elian to Fidel Castro's "ruthless dictatorship." Vice President
Al Gore's efforts to distance himself from the Administration merely
confirmed what all the political experts were saying: In an evenly divided
state, Florida's politically active Cuban community could alter the
outcome of a presidential election. Bush won Florida by 537 votes in the
final tally after the more than 120,000 Cuban-Americans there voted
overwhelmingly for him.
Until Elian, Cubans in America viewed Clinton's unwillingness to end the
"feet-wet, feet-dry" immigration policy as his biggest betrayal.
Under that policy, Cubans seeking asylum who are found off U.S. shores are
returned to Castro; those who manage to touch land can stay. Conservative
activists, however, were more exercised about Clinton's unwillingness to
take action under the Cuba Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act,
sponsored by Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., and Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind. The law
calls for economic sanctions against foreign companies or their executives
who do business in Cuba. Clinton signed the Helms-Burton act with a
flourish in 1996 but bypassed its key provisions by issuing a series of
six-month waivers allowed under the law.
Many anti-Castro activists, such as Rep. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., believed
that all this would change under President Bush. "I heard him saying
that he would enforce Helms-Burton," said Menendez, a Cuban-American
from the district with the heaviest concentration of Cuban-Americans
outside South Florida. "He made it clear that he intended to confront
Castro."
Bush faces his first decision on Helms-Burton in July, the expiration date
for the final six-month waiver issued by President Clinton shortly before
leaving office. Neither Menendez nor any other anti-Castro activist,
however, believes that the President will do anything except renew the
waiver. The feet wet, feet dry policy remains in place and is not under
review. There are no Bush Administration initiatives to toughen the
embargo against Cuba. And the State Department, Menendez noted, has
accepted a watered-down version of a U.N. resolution criticizing Cuba's
human rights practices, just as Clinton had done. In fact, it is hard to
find any way in which Bush's policy differs from Clinton's approach. Nor
is there much prospect that Cuba policy will change.
Some say the explanation lies with the divided loyalties of the Republican
Administration. Officials are sympathetic to South Florida's
Cuban-Americans, but also to business leaders who fear that Helms-Burton
would trigger a trade war with Europe, which has growing investments in
Cuba. On the day that President Bush signed his tax-cut bill, Rep. Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., marveled at the army of business lobbyists who
turned out for the Rose Garden ceremony. "I know that there is a lot
of pressure from business [to waive Helms-Burton]," said the Miami
Congresswoman. "They have a lot of influence. I saw that today with
all the guys from Gucci Gulch."
Then there are the pressures from U.S. trading partners. The relevant
section of Helms-Burton that Bush is expected to waive-Title III of the
law-allows claimants to sue in U.S. courts over property that was seized
when Communists took over Cuba more than 40 years ago. The effect of Title
III is to threaten judgments against most multinational companies that
have investments in Cuba. Mexico, Canada, and the European Union object to
the law, and the European Union challenged it in the World Trade
Organization. It was a serious confrontation, because it pitted the
supposed national security aims of the United States against the WTO's
rules against unilateral trade actions. Ultimately, neither side had much
taste for establishing a precedent in this area, and a deal was worked out
in which Europe withdrew the complaint in anticipation of some
liberalization of U.S.-Cuba policy. Those changes never came, but the
unwritten deal seemed to be that as long as the President keeps waiving
Title III, Europe will not pursue its WTO case.
Another part of Helms-Burton-Title IV-might offer Bush more of an
opportunity to break with Clinton, Ros-Lehtinen said. Title IV calls for
travel restrictions on executives and major shareholders of foreign
companies who are profiting from expropriated property. It was applied
against a handful of companies shortly after the law came into force, but
it has not been invoked for several years.
Under pressure from the anti-Castro forces, the Clinton Administration
investigated and substantiated claims that a Spanish hotel company, Sol
Melia S.A., holds expropriated Cuban property, but it took no action. Most
people mention Sol Melia as the company at the top of the list for
possible Title IV penalties. But action under Title IV would anger the
Spanish government, and it might goad the EU into reviving the WTO case.
On June 12, during the first leg of his trip to Europe, Bush sent a
conciliatory message about Sol Melia after meeting with Spanish Prime
Minister Jose Maria Aznar. Said Bush: "We will work to resolve that
dispute."
Cuba watchers on both sides of the issue suggest that Bush's interest in
the island may increase when he gets a foreign policy team fully in place.
"It is very hard to have a policy review when you don't have a
team," Menendez said. "I am hopeful that when the people are in
place, the Administration will get serious about doing
something."
But the defection of Sen. James M. Jeffords, I-Vt., and the transfer of
power in the Senate to the Democrats will make this more difficult.
Consider the fate of Otto Reich, a Cuban-American named early on to be
assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs, the top
diplomat for Latin America. He made his name as an anti-Communist
ideologue in the Reagan Administration, spreading disinformation to help
boost the Nicaraguan Contras. The White House's intention to nominate
Reich, along with Roger Noriega, a Helms protege, to be ambassador to the
Organization of American States, signaled Bush's fealty to a hemispheric
view that revolves around an implacable opposition to Castro's
Cuba.
Today, by most accounts, Reich's nomination is doomed. Until the Jeffords
earthquake, Reich did face major opposition from Democrats, but with the
help of Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Helms, Democrats would have had
to mount a filibuster to stop his confirmation. Now, with the committee in
Democratic hands, a vote on his nomination will probably never come.
"I think the Administration is reviewing the nomination," said
one key Senate aide. "I think most likely he'll withdraw."
Reich, who now works as a consultant, calls these sentiments "wishful
thinking" on the part of Democrats who carry a grudge from the Reagan
years. Reich says top Administration officials reassured him recently-two
days before the Jeffords announcement-about his nomination. Since then, he
has heard nothing to make him believe he won't be fully supported. The
Senate aide says, however: "I don't know what planet he's living on.
Everyone knows he's in trouble."
The Senate handover will also change the dynamics for new Cuba
legislation. Helms and Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., had teamed up on a
bill that calls for funneling $100 million over four years to Castro
opponents in Cuba. (The method of delivering the money and protecting the
dissidents from reprisal was not specified.) Bush quickly backed the plan,
but the shift to Democratic control means that a hearing for the
legislation is no longer a top priority, according to a committee
staffer.
Meanwhile, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., and a bipartisan group of 12
other Senators introduced a bill on June 12 that would turn Cuba policy in
the opposite direction. The omnibus bill, with a dozen different
provisions, starts out with a section that would relax some restrictions
on exports of food and medicine to Cuba. Other parts would lift the $1,200
annual limit on how much cash Cuban-Americans can send to relatives in
Cuba, allow export of toys there, remove travel restrictions on U.S.
citizens, allow waivers of some now nonwaivable aspects of Helms-Burton,
and, finally, allow a U.S. President to lift the Cuban embargo without
permission from Congress.
Barring a sudden change of heart, of course, the bill would be vetoed in a
heartbeat by President Bush, even if it could ever get through the
GOP-controlled House. But that this legislation is even being discussed in
serious terms is a measure of how much things have changed. A Senate aide
said that, depending on the new membership of the Foreign Relations
Committee, the Dodd bill could well be reported out of committee.
Menendez concedes that the pressures from U.S. business and foreign
governments leave little room for any President to significantly toughen
Cuba policy. But pressure from conservatives, including the voluble
Cuban-American community, also makes any liberalization politically risky.
Some would say that amounts to a stalemate, though Ros-Lehtinen thinks a
higher power might intervene. Although "I don't expect the President
to act" on Title III, said the Congresswoman, "I am hoping and
praying that President Bush is going to do the right thing."
John Maggs
National Journal
