SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 3A

LENGTH: 1135 words

HEADLINE: Castro is 75, and Miami is waiting

BYLINE: Deborah Sharp

DATELINE: MIAMI

BODY:
"You're not expecting me to wish him a happy birthday, are you?" asks Ralph Gonzalez-Jacobo, a Miami banker whose family fled Cuba in 1967.


This area is home to more than half the USA's 1.2 million Cuban-Americans. That makes it a place where everyone watches Castro's health closely. It's said that when the Cuban leader sneezes, Miami catches a cold.
Castro's near-collapse in June, during one of his famous lengthy speeches, set off a frenzy among many who have waited 42 years for his fall. The onstage stumble in Cuba merited most of The Miami Herald 's front page and two inside pages, despite Castro's reappearance that evening to finish speaking and assure Cubans he had recovered from the sweltering heat. Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, visiting New York at the time, joked about the short-lived swoon. It was so brief, he said, that Castro's enemies in Miami "didn't even have time to uncork their bottles."


The once-robust Castro is now gray. Age spots dot his face. His trademark beard, though sparser, remains, along with his green military fatigues. Cubans on the island refer to their leader as "el barbudo," the bearded one. They silently evoke his name by making a motion as if stroking a beard.


A transition from a Castro-led Cuba carries political and economic implications for both Cuba and the USA. But Cuba scholars say Castro's death or retirement won't mean overnight change in the country's political system. Possible successors are Communists who support a revolution that many in Cuba speak of as if it happened yesterday.


However, pressure in the USA to end a nearly 40-year trade embargo likely will increase once Castro is gone. The hatred that many here feel for him has driven U.S. policy. Without him as a target, some experts say, the relationship between the two nations could soften.


"It's very much personalized foreign policy," says John Kavulich of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. "Up until two years ago, when people talked about Castro, it was always 'if' he dies. Now it's 'when,' so there is finally a sense that he's not immortal."


Castro has held near-absolute power in Cuba since Jan. 1, 1959, when the revolution he led overthrew President Fulgencio Batista. His government confiscated more than $ 1 billion in American-owned property, executed or imprisoned thousands of enemies and put Communist doctrine in the schools. Castro's admirers note the country has made vast improvements in health care and educational opportunities, especially for the poor.


The United States cut diplomatic relations in 1961 and instituted a trade embargo in 1962. Restrictions on business with and travel to Cuba still stand.


In Miami, a flood of refugees from Castro's regime has remade the city in a Cuban mold. Spanish dominates. Cuban heroes are honored on street signs. Restaurants and nightclubs bear the same names as famed spots in Cuba. Cuba's future is discussed endlessly at coffee counters along Little Havana's Calle Ocho, or Eighth Street.


Bankers in suits and ties join blue-collar workers to trade opinions about the island and sip cortaditos, sweetened espresso with a swirl of milk.


Miami-Dade County's Cuban-Americans wield tremendous political and economic clout. Last year's Census found that 650,601 people, 29% of the county, claim Cuban heritage. Yet the community is far from monolithic.


Many younger Cuban-Americans don't have the same hatred for Castro or longing for a stolen homeland that their parents or grandparents do. The desire by those with painful memories of fleeing Cuba to return after Castro is gone is now complicated by roots set in Miami's sandy soil.


"My kids are American-born," says Gonzalez-Jacobo, 42, the father of three sons. "It's a very difficult decision."


A stunning rift was seen in the past month in the Cuban American National Foundation, a group that has long been an influential voice in U.S.-Cuba policy.


In a very public falling-out, nearly two dozen of 170 board members quit in protest over what some see as a softer approach toward Cuba by the group's leader, Jorge Mas Santos. Mas Santos, 38, is the American-born son of the group's legendary hard-line founder, the late Jorge Mas Canosa.


Analysts have interpreted the split as everything from simple generational differences to a signal that the once-hard-line foundation will encourage more moderate views. Foundation officials downplay the impact of the rift on the group's continuing focus: freedom for Cuba post-Castro.


"Like in any group, people have different opinions," says Dennis Hays, the foundation's executive vice president. "The issue remains how to best prepare the people in Cuba for succession."


The foundation fight comes a year after the furor over Elian Gonzalez, the Cuban child who survived a boat capsizing in which his mother and other refugees died. Elian was ultimately returned to Cuba by the U.S. government over the protests of anti-Castro activists. Many see both issues as blows to Cuban-American political power.


Much to the dismay of many here, Castro could well have a long life: His father was 82 when he died, and his mother lived well into her 80s. Like most details about Castro's personal life, his late mother's actual age is unknown. Yet when Castro dies, Miami is sure to celebrate.


Alexis Budejen, 19, is up for the party, but he says he is short on anti-Castro passion. "I know my parents went through a lot that I would never want to go through," the Miami-born Budejen says. "But I was raised in America. I don't think I know enough about Castro to judge on a personal basis."


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After Castro

Experts on Cuban politics point to four men as the most likely successors to Fidel Castro:


* Raul Castro, Fidel's younger brother, is chief of the armed forces and the Communist Party's No. 2 man. He has his brother's blessing, but observers say he lacks the charisma of the once-dashing Fidel. Age is also a drawback -- though he reportedly climbed El Pico Turquino, Cuba's highest peak, to celebrate his 70th birthday in June.


* Ricardo Alarcon, 64, head of Cuba's Congress-like National Assembly, was also United Nations ambassador for more than 20 years. Americans saw him on TV during the Elian Gonzalez crisis, espousing Cuba's position that the young boy should be returned to his father.


* Felipe Perez Roque, 36, an electrical engineer and Cuba's foreign minister. A star among younger leaders, he stepped to the podium after Castro's stumble to plead with the crowd for calm.


* Carlos Lage, 49, Cuba's vice president who oversees daily government operations. He has instituted financial reforms as Cuba's economic czar.


GRAPHIC: PHOTO, B/W, Cristobal Herrera, AP; PHOTO, B/W, Andrew Itkoff for USA TODAY; PHOTO, B/W, Reuters; PHOTO, Color, Jose Goitia, AP (page 1A); Generations: Fidel Castro jokes with Elian Gonzalez at an event last month in Cardenas, Cuba. Elian, whose mother died trying to take him to the USA in November 1999, eventually returned to Cuba with his father, Juan Gonzalez, seated at right. <>The revolutionary: Castro in 1959, the year he took power. <>Cuban flavor in Miami: Ralph Gonzalez-Jacobo, left, and Mariano Fernandez enjoy coffee at a restaurant. Gonzalez-Jacobo's family fled to the USA in 1967.<>Castro's 75th prompts speculation: Cuban President Fidel Castro, right, will celebrate his 75th birthday today. As the longtime dictator ages, Cuban-Americans in Miami look to a future without him. Castro's potential successors include his brother, his vice-president, and a 36-year-old engineer. 3A.

LOAD-DATE: August 13, 2001