In the coming weeks, congressional opponents of the embargo will launch an organized effort to ease sanctions, while the White House, with help from the Cuban-American National Foundation, has prepared a sharp response

The next few weeks could mark the beginning of what could become an important battle in the history of the US embargo against Cuba – a fight that pits a rejuvenated, pro-sanctions Bush Administration against a well-organized, bipartisan movement in Congress to ease sanctions against Cuba.

By late March or early April, congressional supporters of engagement with Cuba are expected to announce a coordinated public initiative aimed at lifting US trade, travel and other restrictions against the island. But within the same time frame, the White House is expected to launch a vigorous campaign to tighten US restrictions and portray Cuba as a country with terrorist ties.

Informed observers agreed last week that the debate over Cuba has been heating up ever since Cuba’s decision over the winter to buy US farm products with cash. This decision – plus last week’s decision to buy more US goods – has fueled momentum in Congress to ease the trade restrictions even further.

At the same time, these events have prompted supporters of the embargo to push for assurances that the Bush Administration will take an active part in checking this momentum.

The last few years have seen skirmishes over certain elements of the embargo, particularly trade and travel. But while these fights have tended to occur on separate stages, this spring could see simultaneous and linked battles over trade, travel and other aspects of the relationship.

According to some Cuba policy watchers, the simultaneous launch of campaigns by the pro-sanctions Bush Administration and a growing anti-sanctions movement in Congress would appear to signal the start of a long, focused debate on the embargo that could decide the fate of US-Cuba relations for the foreseeable future.

White House officials late last week signaled to informed sources that they are preparing a broad response to growing criticism from Cuban-Americans that the Bush Administration has not done enough toward maintaining a hardline position against Cuba. In meetings last week with representatives of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF), officials said this response would take the form of defending the embargo against legislation in Congress, enforcing a more vigorous anti-Cuba policy to the extent executive branch authority allows, and generally being more vocal about its pro-sanctions position.

In meetings held March 7-8, CANF representatives met with White House Senior Advisor Karl Rove, Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Otto Reich, US Ambassador to the Organization of American States Roger Noriega, officials from the National Security Council, and others.

In a March 8 interview with Cuba Trader, CANF Executive Director Joseph Garcia said his meetings with Bush Administration officials convinced him that the White House would soon be engaged in Cuba in a way that should quiet recent criticism from Cuban-Americans.

"I think today a great deal of our fears have been allayed," Garcia said, adding that increased White House activity will help rally Cuban-Americans around the Bush Administration again. "This will help bring our friends back into the fold."

Specifically, informed sources said the Bush Administration plans to release a broad review of US Cuba policy in late April or early May that will outline White House plans to more strictly enforce existing travel restrictions against Cuba, provide more aid to dissidents, push for a strong human rights resolution against Cuba in the United Nations, and closely examine the wave of agricultural exports to Cuba to ensure these sales are not subsidized (see separate story for details).

The White House announced the review back in January (Cuba Trader, Jan. 21).

In addition, sources said the administration is expected to make a stronger case in public that Cuba is not a country with which the US should be dealing, and will make the specific point that Cuba has strong ties to terrorist entities. This effort is aimed at demonstrating to members of Congress that Bush opposes legislation that would ease the embargo against Cuba, which CANF and others hope will deter this legislation from moving ahead in the first place.

This "public relations" effort is also expected to kick off in the coming weeks, according to informed sources.

Aside from measures related to the review, sources said the administration is "close" to announcing a settlement of an investigation under Title IV of Helms-Burton of Spain’s Grupo Sol Melia that should satisfy Cuban-Americans.

Under Title IV, the State Department is required to deny US entry visas to executives of foreign companies deemed to be trafficking in property confiscated by Cuba without compensation. State has supposedly been investigating for the last five years whether Sol Melia should be cited under the law for building hotels on property in Cuba that was confiscated by the Castro regime without compensation, but has declined to penalize the company, a decision most believe was made in order to avoid a fight with the European Union over Helms-Burton.

Sol Melia and the original claimants – the Sanchez family of Miami – have previously attempted to negotiate a settlement that would give Sol Melia the right to use the property without fear of repercussions under Title IV. These efforts left the two sides several million dollars apart, with the family asking anywhere for $5 to $10 million for the property.

However, sources have said over the past few weeks that State is actively pressing both sides to settle. In addition, sources last week indicated that State appears close to convincing Sol Melia to settle with the Sanchez family for an amount that would be "good" for the family.

Pro-embargo sources have generally favored Title IV action over a settlement, but some have agreed that a large financial settlement would have a similar effect of discouraging investment in confiscated property in Cuba.

On the other side of the debate will be a bipartisan group of House members, which has been led primarily by three Republican members – Reps. George Nethercutt (WA), Jo Ann Emerson (MO), and Jeff Flake (AZ) – but also counts Reps. William Delahunt (D-MA), Marion Berry (D-AR) and Vic Snyder (D-AR) as core members. According to congressional sources, this group is scheduled to formally announce the formation of a Cuba working group before the Easter break, although the group may be announced in early April.

This group has already taken the lead in fighting for language in the farm bill that would allow private US banks to finance exports to Cuba, and Flake, in coordination with Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), has played a significant role in trying to ease US restrictions on travel to Cuba. But congressional sources noted that more coordination is needed by members seeking to ease the embargo, as some previous efforts by individual members have been stonewalled.

As a collective, however, the group is expected to announce that its membership – which could number in the dozens – wants to play a role in Cuba policy outside the traditional issues of trade and travel, sources said.

"The work of the group is potentially open ended," one congressional source said. "We’re going to be diversifying from the usual issues," said another.

For example, the group is already seeking a meeting with many of the officials CANF representatives met with last week in order to add their input to and ask questions about the Cuba policy review, congressional sources said. One source said the group was shooting for a meeting with relevant Bush Administration officials sometime before the end of this month.

Another issue the group is expected to announce as a focus of its work is a US trademark law known as Section 211, which is aimed at preventing companies from registering intellectual property in the US if it was used in connection with confiscated property in Cuba. The law, which the EU successfully challenged in the World Trade Organization, was pushed by Bacardi of Bermuda in order to deny a French-Cuban joint-venture company the right to register the "Havana Club" trademark in the US.

Congressional sources said they have just recently begun looking at Section 211, and appear to be ready to fight for the repeal of the law. In the wake of the WTO case, the US Trade Representative has indicated that he would seek to amend it in order to comply (Cuba Trader, Jan. 7).

"We see Section 211 as a perfect example of a special interest controlling the issue," one congressional source said, referring to Bacardi’s successful effort in 1998 to attach the language in an appropriations bill without a hearing. This source added that because Cuba has previously threatened US trademarks as a way to retaliate against the law, repealing the law would likely become a focus of the Cuba working party.

Congressional sources said the group has requested a meeting with USTR to discuss the agency’s plans for dealing with the WTO decision, and hopes to hold this meeting this month.

Other issues the group hopes to look into include US-Cuba counter-narcotics cooperation, examining how OFAC enforces travel sanctions against Cuba, and whether the US should continue to fund pro-democracy programming to Cuba via Radio and TV Marti, sources said.

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