Summary of Counter-Terrorism Initiatives By the National Academies February 21, 2002 Introductory Perspective The Academies responded to the terrorist attacks of September 11th in multiple ways. Following a meeting of leaders from the science, technology and health care communities with leading former government officials, a number of initiatives were undertaken by the end of September, supported by the Presidents from Academy funds. Other activities, some of which pre-dated September 11th, emanated from many of the 80 boards within the National Research Council. An analysis of the combined activities, below, leads to the conclusion that the Academy activities relating to counter-terrorism span all segments of the "public health model" of prevention, detection, response, recovery and attribution and also cover the several domains of potential terrorist threat, viz. biological, chemical, nuclear and radiological, information technology, transportation, energy facilities, cities and fixed infrastructure. A better understanding of the roots of terrorism in order to lessen the fertile ground in which terrorism can recruit its perpetrators or build popular support is being addressed in several initiatives involving the social and behavioral sciences. S&T Agenda for Countering Terrorism This project is aimed at helping the federal government, and more specifically the Executive Office of the President, to use effectively the nation's and the world's scientific and technical community in a timely response to the threat of catastrophic terrorism. A committee of distinguished scientists and engineers with supporting panels will help to develop an integrated science and technology program plan and research strategy. Phase 1 of the project will by June prepare a framework for the application of science and technology for combating terrorism and using additional experts serving on panels will prepare research agendas in eight key domains (biological; chemical; nuclear and radiological; information technology; transportation; energy facilities, cities, and fixed infrastructure; behavioral, social and institutional issues; and systems analysis and systems engineering). The committee will also examine a series of cross-cutting and multidisciplinary issues, including interdependent vulnerabilities, and implementation obstacles. At the discretion of the government, phase 2 will review key government research programs and provide recommendations for building improved interagency capabilities and coordination. A final report for phase 1 will be produced by June 2002. A phase 2 report would be produced by September 11, 2002. Near-term Assistance for the U.S. Government On urgent topics where the government needs immediate assistance, the Academies are inviting scientific experts to meet with government representatives in one-day meetings. Although no written reports are produced and no formal Academy advice is provided, the dialogue is very beneficial to federal agencies, including the inter-agency Technical Support Working Group (TSWG) on counter-terrorism. Recent examples include a meeting for the U.S. Postal Service on sanitizing the mail (11/14/01); a meeting for the Dept. of Justice on how to analyze the anthrax-infected letter to Senator Leahy (12/7/01); a meeting on human factors for the FAA's sky marshall program (12/5-6); a meeting on biological and chemical forensics for TSWG (12/11); and a meeting on biological and chemical decontamination for TSWG (12/14); a meeting on through structure imaging (2/8). A meeting on explosives detection is planned for March. Combating Terrorism: Prioritizing Vulnerabilities and Developing Mitigation Strategies The National Academy of Engineering has begun a 12-month project to identify, assess, and prioritize vulnerabilities to the nation's vital infrastructures posed by global terrorism, and outline strategies (technologies, policies) to mitigate priority vulnerabilities in a manner consistent with a free, open, and prosperous society. Using various fact-finding, forecasting, consensus-building, and risk analysis techniques, the project committee is seeking to integrate expert knowledge of the nature of modern terrorism (motives, capabilities, sociology, psychology), terrorist weapons and delivery systems, and the vulnerabilities of vital infrastructures to measure and rank order the myriad terrorist threats to the nation. (supported by the NAE) International Collaborative Activities with Foreign Counterparts to Reduce Near-Term Threats and Long-term Root Causes of Terrorism Priority activities include: Cooperation on Preventing Terrorists from Obtaining Nuclear Materials in Russia, which will include two projects. The first will be a joint effort with the Russian Academy of Sciences to produce a "white paper" assessing the steps that can be taken immediately by the two governments to reduce the risks that nuclear weapons or materials could fall into the hands of terrorists. Working together, the two academies will also identify an agenda for longer-term U.S.-Russian cooperation, including continuing inter-academy attention to problems that may arise and how they might be overcome. The second project, to be carried out in cooperation with Russian specialists, will be directed to Russian responsibility for ensuring adequate protection of plutonium and highly enriched uranium after the termination of cooperative activities in this field. It will take into account the economic difficulties faced by the institutions responsible for such protection. The project will draw on the experience from the cooperative programs and other relevant experience in addressing practical steps that can be taken at the Federal and institutional levels to require and encourage appropriate measures to prevent theft or diversion. Continuation of the U.S.-Russian InterAcademy Project on conflicts in multiethnic societies with special attention to areas of the former Soviet Union with large Muslim populations. InterAcademy meetings and activities (on both a bilateral basis and on a multilateral basis through the InterAcademy Panel) with scientists and science organizations from the Middle East and predominantly Moslem nations, such as Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Turkey. Planning meeting for a study on building the capability of foreign affairs and development agencies to help in reducing the risk of terrorism, a study that would complement the NRC report on "The Pervasive Role of Science, Technology, and Health in Foreign Policy: Imperatives for the State Department." Continuation of the US-Russian InterAcademy Project on counter-terrorism, with particular emphasis on the potential use of advanced technologies by terrorist groups. Peer Review of Cooperative Research Proposals from Institutes that Participated in the Former Soviet Biological Defense Program. This project involves the review of proposals prepared for the Department of Defense, the evaluation of projects underway, and the identification of future cooperative research activities. It also provides for two two-week familiarization visits by American scientists interested in establishing research collaboration with Russian colleagues on dangerous pathogens. Public Health Initiatives The Institute of Medicine will conduct new activities as well as capitalizing on work currently in progress to develop and communicate anti-terrorism strategies based on public health principles. The goal is to provide guidance on specific issues of national, local and individual concern ,within the framework of a comprehensive strategy to assure the health of the public in the 21st century. Priority (near term ) activities include: A series of workshops under the Forum on Emerging Infections. The first was held on November 27-28, 2001 and addressed Biological Threats and Terrorism: Assessing Science and Response Capabilities. The second, on February 6-7, 2002, focused upon Issues of Resistance: Microbes, Vectors and the Host with implications for counter-terrorism responses. A comprehensive study of the safety and efficacy of anthrax vaccines will be released in February. Completion of this Department of Defense funded study was accelerated in response to the current need to make decisions regarding manufacture and use of anthrax vaccine. On November 5th, the IOM Council issued a Statement on Vaccine Development, assessing the country's capacity to develop, produce and store vaccines. The recommendations include creation of a National Vaccine Authority. This statement was introduced as part of the testimony by Dr. Richard Klausner before the Senate Commerce Committee on February 5, 2002. The 1992 IOM report on Emerging Infectious Diseases is being updated and expanded. The committee will include an extensive discussion of issues related to bioterrorism. The report will be issued in early 2003. A committee report providing a vision for assuring public health in the 21st century will be issued in the Spring of 2002. It will provide a framework for integrating investments and activities related to counter-terrorism into the overall public and private sector infrastructure to assure public health. Issues Affecting Universities Arising out of Terrorism Events: Workshop on Implications for Research, Scientific Communication, and Foreign Students A workshop was held on December 13-14, 2001. Issues such as visa and foreign student tracking policies were discussed by representatives of major research universities. Also discussed were protections that can be achieved to avoid the diversion of biological agents from research facilities. The implications of possible restrictions on biomedical research, scientific communication, and on graduate student participation were also examined. A report was provided to the Presidents in February 2002, outlining topics and recommendations for studies by various units of the National Academies. An all-staff meeting will be held in February and briefings of interested constituencies will be held in coming months. Follow-up work will be undertaken by, among others, GUIRR, COSEPUP, the Openness and Security Roundtable, and Science, Technology and Law Program. Preliminary Evaluation of US Industrial Vulnerabilities and Near-term Protective Measures Evaluations by the appropriate NRC boards in cooperation with volunteers to identify vulnerabilities in key industries, e.g. chemical and energy industries, and measures that might lessen this vulnerability or reduce the consequences of strikes to key infrastructure. The Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology met with chemical industry representatives on this topic on 12/9/01 and with federal agencies on 12/10/01. An additional session with industry representatives was held on January 25 to discuss economic vulnerabilities. The Board on Life Sciences and the Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources have held similar meetings. Other boards will meet with relevant industries in the weeks ahead. Communicating to Local Governments and Private Citizens about Preparedness for Terrorism Events A meeting requested by Dr. Marburger will be held in the spring of 2002 to plan how better to link federal and state governments on S&T policy, including for combating terrorism. Science representatives of each of the states will attend. Additional Specific Board-Based Activities An Assessment of Naval Forces' Defense Capabilities Against Chemical and Biological Warfare Threats At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the Naval Studies Board is conducting a study to: (1) examine existing and potential chemical and biological warfare threats to naval force operations in littoral regions and deep ocean regions of the world; (2) examine and project chemical and biological defense technologies, tactics, and procedures; (3) evaluate R&D and identify priorities for providing naval forces with needed capabilities; and (4) examine testing and evaluation procedures (in conjunction with training procedures) for ensuring adequate defensive capabilities. It is anticipated that a published report will be available by July 2002. Improving Cybersecurity Research in the United States A study by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board will be conducted to determine the extent and nature of current federal research in cybersecurity and to identify areas of research that are not adequately supported. ($129,000 from NRC funds and a matching amount expected from the National Science Foundation) Information and Security: Enhancing Information Management and Data Mining Capabilities for Combating Terrorism while Protecting Civil Liberties A planning meeting for a study is being organized by the Computer Science and Technology Board (CSTB). The study will consider research opportunities in data mining as well as ways to minimize the privacy and civil liberties implications of anticipated increased collection and integration of personally identifiable information. Improving Research Standards and Practices to Prevent Misuse of Biotechnology Research A study will review and assess the current rules, regulations, and institutional arrangements and processes in the United States that provide oversight of research on dangerous biological pathogens, including within government laboratories, universities and other research institutions, and industry. The review would focus on how choices are made about which research is and is not appropriate, and how information about relevant ongoing research is collected and shared. It will consider, but not be limited to, the "biosafety" practices that govern the conduct of research and the handling and transport of materials. The study will recommend changes to improve U.S. capacity to prevent the destructive application of dangerous biological pathogens while still enabling the conduct of legitimate research. Agricultural Bioterrorism The Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources is conducting a study to evaluate the ability of the U.S., to deter, prevent, detect, thwart, respond to and recover from an intentional biological attack against the nation's food and fiber supply. The report is expected in summer 2002. (supported by the USDA) What Terrorists Value The Division of Behavioral, Social Sciences, and Education will conduct a study on the social, cultural, organizational, and psychological context of the terrorism now directed at the U.S., and the implications for new approaches to deter terrorism. Assessment of Technologies Deployed to Improve Aviation Security This study by the National Materials Advisory Board (NMAB) sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration, is assessing the operational performance of passenger screening, explosives detection systems and hardened cargo containers in airports and compare that performance to their performance in laboratory testing, with a focus on ways to deploy these systems more effectively to improve aviation security. The Committee will complete and issue a second status report by March 2002. Assessment of Practicality of Pulsed Fast Neutron Analysis for Aviation Security This National Materials Advisory Board study, sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration, is assessing the practicality of pulsed fast neutron analysis (PFNA) for detecting explosives and other contraband in cargo and passenger baggage in an airport. The capabilities of PFNA are compared with the capabilities of explosives-detection equipment currently available for deployment and with the expected future development of current equipment. The Committee plans publication of their findings in mid 2002. Advanced Energetic Materials and Manufacturing Technologies This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design is investigating and assessing the manufacturing technologies required to scale up and produce bulk quantities of advanced energetics and suggest opportunities and strategies for government investment. Although these new materials are more difficult to manufacture when compared to standard explosives, they are equally difficult to detect using current systems. The study, sponsored by the Department of Defense, is underway. Materials and Manufacturing Processes for Advanced Sensors This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design is examining potential technologies for detect-to-warn systems for biological agents. Their charge is to review the DTRA-specified requirements for these systems and identify those requirements that will especially drive the detection concepts and architectures - e.g., less than one minute detection times, continuous operations with attendant implications for consumables and their costs - and understand to what extent, if any, these, or related, parameters (e.g. detection sensitivities), may be relaxed. The committee is also considering examples of representative operational scenarios or architectures (to be provided by the sponsor), which will be invaluable in putting these system requirements and tradeoffs in context. Transportation Initiatives Support for Transportation Security Research (TRB) The Transportation Research Board administers two cooperative research programs, one for state departments of transportation and one for the public transportation industry. In October 2001, $2 million was allocated from the Transit Cooperative Research Program and $1.25 million from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program to provide flexible, on-going rapid response research on transportation issues related to emergency incident prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, paying particular attention to potential terrorist threats. Consultants have been selected and work will get underway in February and March 2002. The National Cooperative Highway Research Program is currently supporting the development of manuals for vulnerability assessments and emergency response planning. Standing Technical Committee on Critical Infrastructure Protection (TRB) TRB maintains approximately 200 standing technical committee that support information dissemination activities in transportation. The Committee on Critical Infrastructure Protection, which was established two years ago, facilitates the dissemination of state-of-the practice and state-of-the-art information on infrastructure security and protection and encourages research in this field. It sponsors TRB's website on security and organized security sessions at TRB's Annual Meeting in January 2002. Survey on Vulnerability Assessment (TRB) TRB is conducting, in cooperation with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, a survey of states to determine whether and to what extent they have addressed infrastructure planning and security in their planning efforts. All states responded to the survey, whose results were summarized at several TRB Annual Meeting sessions in January 2002. TRB Annual Meeting (TRB) TRB's Annual Meeting is one of the largest gatherings of transportation professionals in the world. The January 2002 meeting included over 30 security and recovery related sessions. An overview session will involve the DOT modal administrators, the new head of the Transportation Security Agency, and the Deputy Secretary covered topics such as port and waterway security, airline passenger screening, and protecting public transportation facilities. Transportation Associations--Information Sharing (TRB) TRB organized a meeting of a number of transportation associations to share information about the security issues they are confronting and the activities under way. The group will meet again in April 2002. Redundancies in Transportation Systems (TRB) A planning meeting will be held to examine multi-modal transportation infrastructure redundancy to enhance defense against terrorist disruption. Emergency Evacuation in Metropolitan Areas: Barriers and Opportunities (TRB) A planning meeting will be held to discuss technical and institutional barriers to improved metropolitan-wide evacuation and emergency response. Vulnerability of the Electric Power Transmission and Distribution System to Terrorism (BEES) A planning meeting will be held to discuss reducing the impact of terrorist attacks on the electric transmission and distribution system. Safety of Our Nation's Water Supplies (WSTB) A series of activities will be held to discuss safety of the short term security and longer term research initiatives relevant to water supply safety from terrorist attacks. Forum on How Natural Disaster Research Can Inform the Response to Terrorism (NDR) The Natural Disasters Roundtable (NDR) will conduct a two-day workshop February 28-March 1 to develop thoughts on how responses to natural disasters might be applied to threats provided by terrorism. Topics to be considered include engineering design, promoting public awareness and understanding, evacuation planning, recovery planning, utilization of technology to detect and monitor public health risks, public health system needs, and mental health consequences. The output will be a summary of discussion, rather than a report. This summary will be completed approximately 4 weeks after the forum and will be available on the NDR website. Interdependent Vulnerabilities for Critical Infrastructure Protection (BICE) A one-day workshop was held on October 31st to help develop methodologies to analyze interdependent vulnerabilities. The Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment is developing a workshop series to address these problems. Chemical Stockpile Activities (BAST) The Board on Army Science and Technology has conducted a fast-track review of proposed process changes for the expedited disposal of the chemical weapons stockpile inventory. Letter reports were provided to the Army in January 2002. A second BAST activity is an examination of the state of the stockpile as delivered to disposal facilities and the effects of stockpile condition on processing, handling, monitoring and stakeholder reaction. A third activity is an evaluation of process changes for alternative technology at the Aberdeen Bulk-Only Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. Homeland Defense (BAST) To help determine areas of emphasis for science and technology employed by the U.S. Army in support of counter-terrorism/antiterrorism initiatives, the National Research Council Committee on Homeland Defense will review, assess, and offer recommendations relative to homeland defense in the areas of indications and warnings, denial and survivability, recovery and consequence management, and attribution and retaliation technologies. Roundtable on Terrorism (Committee on Law and Justice) (DBASSE) As part of the Academies' investment in 'root-cause' analysis of terrorism, the Forum will discuss relevant social science tools to summarize the knowledge base on terrorism. The objective would be to improve understanding of the current situation, giving rise to terrorism both in the United States and in the Muslim world. A series of workshops and commissioned papers will examine such topics as: Understanding International Terrorism with emphasis upon research from political science and sociology A more specific contextual examination of terrorism in the Middle East Organizational analysis and terrorism A profile of terrorists Recent uses of profiling and their application to combating terrorism Money laundering Collective behavior of populations under the threat of danger General Education of the Media and Public on Terrorism Vulnerabilities and Responses On 12/6/01, the Academies and the Foundation for American Communications (FACS) co-sponsored a Conference for News Executives ["Terror and Homeland Defense: Bringing the Stories Home"] at the Reserve Officers Association. Approximately 50 media representatives attended. (supported by the NAE and FACS) Cybersecurity and Authentication Technologies (CSTB) The Computer Science and Telecommunications Board has issued a letter report synthesizing a decade of work on cybersecurity, focusing on issue identification and practical guidance. CSTB's Committee to Study Authentication Technologies and Their Implications for Privacy has undertaken to develop a brief, interim report addressing issues associated with the concept of national identification systems. The resulting pamphlet will be ready in the winter. Chemistry and National Security (BCST) The Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology held a workshop on January 14-16 on "Challenges in the Chemical Sciences: National Security & Homeland Defense." A report of the workshop will be published in the summer of 2002. Mathematics and Homeland Security (BMS) The Board on Mathematical Sciences is holding a workshop in April on mathematical topics relevant for homeland security, including pattern recognition and data mining, epidemiological modeling, voice and image recognition.