title.gif

AAU PUBLIC AFFAIRS REPORT

December 1, 2001


Note: The AAU Public Affairs Report will not be issued in January. The next edition of this Report will be issued at the beginning of February and it will count as a double issue (i.e., 02--1&2).

Issues Update:

Back to business as usual: Thanksgiving has come and gone, Congress is still in session, and much work remains to be done. The current betting is that Congress won't adjourn for at least another two weeks, and probably not until just before Christmas.

Why has this year's congressional session continued to drag on in this fashion? A lot of it has to do with politics. The fact is that lawmakers of both parties are increasingly focused on next year's congressional elections. And notwithstanding all the talk earlier this fall about bipartisanship, both parties have lately been trying to use various pieces of legislation--especially the economic stimulus legislation--to emphasize political themes they feel will serve them well next fall. Senate Democrats, in particular, have been quite successful at this. So they, in particular, seem in no hurry to go home.

If this assessment seems overly cynical, consider the following item from the November 16 issue of the White House Bulletin, an insider newsletter that circulates widely in the capital. The item refers to a "strategy paper" prepared by three leading Democratic strategists. Consciously or unconsciously, Senate Democrats have been doing exactly what the strategy paper advises.

Democratic Strategy Paper Sees Non-War Issues As Key To Electoral Success. A Democracy Corps analysis of politics in the post September 11 era acknowledges that President Bush has benefited politically from his response to terrorist attacks on the US. Key to Democratic electoral success, according to the paper authored by James Carville, Stanley Greenberg, and Bob Shrum, is getting Americans focused on "other issues" besides the war. Moreover, that should not be difficult, according to the Democratic strategists, because Americans are already tuning back in to those largely economic issues.

The Democratic strategists write, "Though we are only two months away from September 11th, a large portion of the country is focused on 'other' issues. In no way should Democrats or progressives diminish the importance of the war on terrorism. However, we should recognize that even now about half the likely electorate does not mention 'terrorism and security' as a top concern--even when asked to choose their top two concerns. In short, half the electorate is some place else: 39 percent focus on the economy; there is a bloc of 30 percent that is still worried about moral decline and crime; education and health care together bring in over a third of the voters. As Congress debates an economic recovery package, it is especially important to note that only 10 percent mention taxes."

The strategists also note, "While there has been some marginal shift to the Republicans in this period, the playing field on these other issues is either level or tilting toward the Democrats whose advantage on the environment (+35 points) and health care (+24 points) has increased. In the focus groups, health care was nearly an obsession as voters lamented the escalating cost for prescription drugs and unaccountable managed care insurance companies, resulting in a system that voters say, 'sucks' or is 'terrible.'"

According to their survey data, in addition to the environment and health care, Democrats enjoy issue advantages on "helping families" (+19); "retirement and Social Security" (+14); education (+7); "being on your side" (+4); "addressing America's own domestic problems" (+1); and "being moderate - not extreme" (+1). The two parties scored evenly on "the federal budget and surplus." Democrats had a small disadvantage on "the economy" (-2) and a larger one on taxes (-15).

Regarding the economic stimulus debate still under way, the Democratic strategists write, "Voters do not currently bring a strong partisan filter to the various economic proposals being considered. Nonetheless, a majority support every Democratic proposal; in fact, two-thirds favor every Democratic proposal but one (the tax rebate). Overall, the Democratic proposal does better than the Republican--particularly those features that have led the public debate, like the Alternative Minimum Tax."

The strategists note, "Unemployment benefits for the newly unemployed are immensely popular. When offered by the Republicans and targeted at those who have lost their jobs after September 11th, 85 percent favor the idea, including 53 percent who strongly favor it. Presented with an expansive Democratic proposal--extending benefits to 26 weeks, while raising weekly benefits and covering part-time employees--more than two-thirds support it, but less enthusiastically. In the focus groups, many participants worried that such an expansive proposal might re-open the old welfare system. That is why the unemployment proposals should be part of a broad Democratic economic package."

A constant theme running throughout the Democratic paper is GOP weakness on the perception of ties to big business. For example, the Democratic strategists write, "Cuts in corporate tax rates, with no immediate spur to investment, gets little support (46 percent). Repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax, providing $25 billion in tax cuts for large businesses wins the support of only 28 percent. When presented specifically with tax cuts for IBM, GE and General Motors, voters are simply incredulous. Now the leading element of the House Republican package, this is likely to shape public perceptions of the Republicans' approach to the economy. This may become one of the substantive elements in the public's desire to balance the President's direction" with a Democratic Congress.

Where things are: Fair progress has been made on appropriations over the last month. By now, eight FY2002 spending bills have been signed, leaving five to be completed. In the meantime, unappropriated programs are being funded through continuing resolutions. See Attachment 1 for a chart that details the status of all 13 spending bills. The status of the bills of greatest interest to the AAU is as follows:

  • The signed bills include the Energy and Water bill, which funds energy research, and the Interior bill, which funds the National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities.

    The final appropriations for these programs were described in the last Public Affairs Report. See Attachment 2 for an AAU chart that recaps these appropriations.

  • Also signed by now is the VA/HUD bill, which funds the National Science Foundation and NASA. The final version of this bill was worked out on November 6 and passed by both houses two days later. NSF came out quite well in the final bill, getting an overall increase of $373.6 million, or 8.5 percent. "I'm really, really pleased with our numbers," said NSF director Rita Colwell. NASA's science, aeronautics, and technology programs also fared well, with an overall increase of $790.2 million, or 11.2 percent. However, it should be noted that about $160 million of this increase was earmarked for specific projects; when those earmarks are subtracted, the actual increase for regular program activities is more like 9 percent. See Attachment 3 for details.

  • The Senate finally passed its Labor/HHS bill, which funds the National Institutes of Health and education programs, on November 6. But a conference to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions of this legislation is still pending. The House and Senate proposals for the NIH and higher education programs were described in the last Public Affairs Report. See Attachment 4 for a recap.

  • The House finally passed its Defense bill, which funds defense research, on November 28. The Senate has not yet drafted its version of this legislation, but it is scheduled to do so on November 4. This legislation is getting complicated because Senate Democrats have vowed to use it as a vehicle for some $15 billion in additional spending they say is needed in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Part of this spending would go to the state of New York for recovery efforts; the rest would be used for a wide variety of "homeland security" purposes. The President says this additional spending is not needed at this time, and has threatened to veto the bill over the issue. Resolving this dispute won't be easy, and this appropriations bill will probably be the last one to be settled. The House's defense research proposals were described in the last Public Affairs Report. A recap of these proposals can be found in Attachment 5.

Looking ahead: Work on the Administration's next (FY2003) budget proposal is now well underway within the White House. During the week after Thanksgiving, the Office of Management and Budget transmitted its specific FY2003 recommendations to each government agency. The agencies will have several weeks to appeal the recommendations they have received, if they wish. There have been no definitive reports so far about the numbers OMB has transmitted.

In any case, it seems increasingly likely that the Administration's FY2003 budget proposal will be quite draconian. In October, OMB director Mitch Daniels warned that the Administration was intent on restricting future spending, and that programs not related to fighting terrorism or otherwise enhancing security would be under special scrutiny for reductions or elimination (PAR 11/1/01). On November 28, in a speech to the National Press Club, Daniels racheted up this warning by announcing that OMB is now projecting annual budget deficits at least until FY2005, and possibly longer.

Daniels attributed this new, more pessimistic budget outlook to "a costly convergence of factors"--the current economic downturn, a reduction in long-term growth estimates, and new national security spending in the wake of September 11. He rejected Democratic contentions that the GOP's $1.35-trillion tax cut was part of the problem, saying the economy would be in worse shape if that tax cut had not been enacted. He emphasized that the situation underscored the need for spending restraint, and said the Administration was redoubling its efforts to hold government programs to strict performance standards and to reallocate funds away from programs that do not meet those standards.

OMB's new projections represented a sharp turnaround from previous projections, which as recently as August were envisioning a slight deficit in FY2002 but a quick return to robust annual surpluses after that. Reporting on Daniels' speech, the Washington Post said his "gloomy" presentation was in part a strategic move intended "to dampen congressional demands for additional spending." But the Post did not contest the new projections-- it said congressional budget experts have also come to the conclusion that an extended period of deficit spending is now in the cards. See Attachment 6 for the Post's story.

It's too early to tell how this changed fiscal landscape may affect the Administration's budget proposals for research and higher education programs in FY2003 and beyond. For sure, the Administration will seek increased funding for research related to bioterrorism, other terrorist threats, and computer security. Various federal agencies are already reaching out to the National Academies and others to tap scientific resources in universities and elsewhere. And White House science adviser John Marburger has also been working with the scientific community to develop a comprehensive, new federal research agenda.

This new Administration outreach to scientists was reviewed at some length in a November 20 New York Times article (Attachment 7). Some believe it could have major implications for the future. The Times article said Dr. Lewis Branscomb, a Harvard University physicist who is helping direct an Academies panel on anti-terror technologies, feels "the developing bond between science and government" could "rejuvenate the partnership that built the atomic bomb, landed American astronauts on the moon, won the cold war and cured many diseases." "Our model is World War II and after," the Times quoted Branscomb as saying. "It could be a turning point."

It appears that the NSF already stands to benefit from this new mood. This year, the Administration initially proposed an increase of only 1.3 percent for that agency. But those who have been talking recently with Administration officials have come away with the impression that the Administration now regards the NSF quite highly and will seek a much larger increase for it next year. More significantly, OMB director Daniels himself had high praise for the NSF during his November 28 Press Club speech. As he discussed performance standards in that speech, Daniels cited the NSF as one of three "excellent federal programs" that "deserve to be singled out, deserve to be fortified and strengthened" (the other two programs were the National Weather Service and the Women, Infants, and Children's program).

Specifically, Daniels said the NSF was one of the "true centers of excellence in this government . . . where more than 95 percent of the funds you provide as taxpayers go out on a competitive basis directly to researchers pursuing the frontiers of science, at a very low overhead cost." He also emphasized that the NSF "has supported eight of the 12 most recent Nobel awards . . . earned by Americans at some point in their careers." See Attachment 8 for the Washington Fax news service's account of this portion of Daniels' remarks.

On the other hand, in spite of the new emphasis on combating bioterrorism, those who have been talking with Administration officials have gotten the impression that the Administration may seek a smaller overall increase for the NIH next year than it did this year. But this would not be a big surprise in the current budget context since shortchanging NIH is a familiar strategy for saving money in presidential budgets. The Clinton Administration almost always proposed small NIH increases with the expectation that Congress would give the agency much more money in the end, which it always did.

Other matters (I): The last issue of this newsletter noted that bioterrorism legislation including provisions to tighten lab security was being developed in the Senate. The various senators who had proposals in this area have now banded together in support of a bipartisan, consensus bill that was introduced November 14 by senators Bill Frist (R-TN) and Edward Kennedy (D-MA). Companion legislation has also been introduced in the House by Rep. Greg Ganske (R-IA).

The Frist-Kennedy bill would authorize $3.2 billion for a wide range of steps to prevent, detect, and combat bioterrorism. Its lab security provisions include mandates for the development of new standards and procedures for the possession, use, and transfer of biological agents and toxins; registration of those who work with such materials; and Department of Justice background checks of those seeking such registration. See Attachment 9 for a summary of the bill. The full text of the measure is available on Frist's website at www.senate.gov/~frist/biobill.pdf.

The bill's fate in the remaining weeks of this year's congressional session remains to be seen. Finding funding for the bill is likely to be an issue, but Frist and Kennedy have voiced confidence that this issue can be worked out, and that the measure will be passed and signed into law.

The AAU has some questions about a few of the bill's provisions but it has endorsed the measure and hopes to work with its sponsors to refine it (Attachment 10).

Other matters (II): The last issue of this newsletter noted that legislation was also being developed in the Senate to reform the international student visa program. Here, too, the various senators who were working on such legislation have now rallied behind a bipartisan, consensus bill introduced November 30 by Senator Kennedy and Senator Sam Brownback (R-KN).

The Kennedy-Brownback bill deals with both border safety and student visa issues. Among other things, it would tighten federal procedures for scrutinizing student visa applicants and monitoring student visa holders, and it would require campuses to notify the government in a timely fashion whenever students fail to show up. See Attachment 11 for a preliminary summary of the bill, from the American Council on Education.

The fate of this bill in the remaining weeks of the congressional session also remains to be seen.

In any case, the initial reaction to the bill within the higher education community has been generally favorable.

Meanwhile, campus professionals who work with foreign students have been struggling mightily to convince lawmakers of the importance of foreign students to the U.S. For example, on November 14, the association that represents these professionals released a study that indicates foreign students and their dependents contributed more than $11 billion to the U.S. economy during the 2000-2001 academic year. See Attachment 12 for the news release on the study.

Trendlines:

Still no traction: The last issue of this newsletter noted that attempts to launch a peace movement to protest the U.S. response to the September 11 terrorist attacks did not appear to be making much headway among students. This still appears to be the case. Although the Chronicle of Higher Education reported on November 9 that a campus antiwar movement was "building momentum," no other publication has detected this. On the contrary, other publications have been reporting things like the following:

  • "So far, there have been only scattered signs of a nascent antiwar movement." (Newsweek).

  • "Today's college students are expressing a patriotism and a pro-war fervor not seen among young people since World War II." (Christian Science Monitor)

  • "In ways large and small, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 have altered how college students regard the military, the prospect of military service and their peers who decide to join." (The New York Times)

  • "The CIA's presence on campus once drew protesters who excoriated the agency for a dubious series of Cold war adventures . . . . But after [the September 11 attacks] trust in the spy agency--and the rest of the federal government--is soaring on campus." (The Washington Post)

Several polls released over the past month have supported such assessments--all of these polls have indicated that students are about as supportive of the current anti-terrorism effort as the general population. See Attachment 13 for a series of clippings on these matters.

Still at it: The last issue of this newsletter also noted that some faculty members' criticisms of U.S. policies and actions in the wake of September 11 seemed have revived the so-called culture wars. The attacks on these criticisms have escalated over the past month.

Most noticeably, the American Council of Trustees and Alumni (ACTA) November 11 released a widely covered report that condemned a variety of statements by faculty. In addition, conservative columnists have been producing a steady stream of commentary, most of which has focused in a general way on the ideological divide between academe and the rest of society (e.g., "College campuses are home to elitists who are out of touch with and have contempt for American values"--Walter Williams, in the Washington Times). There has also been commentary from various ideological quarters about such specific matters as the shallowness of the current academic emphasis on "multiculturalism," the degree to which area studies have been rendered useless to policymakers by postmodernist and postcolonialist philosophies, the refusal of some colleges to permit ROTC on campus, and continuing efforts by law schools to resist military recruiting on campuses. See Attachment 14 for the ACTA report and a sampling of the abovementioned commentary.

Noteworthy in this context are recent statements by Harvard University's new president, Lawrence Summers, who--in the Boston Globe's words-- "has begun using [his post] as a bully pulpit to forward [the idea that] the academic world should get more in line with mainstream America." In particular, Summers recently told a Kennedy School of Government awards ceremony that "patriotism" is a word "used too infrequently in communities such as this," and "it is all too common for us to underestimate the importance of clearly expressing our respect and support for the military and individuals who choose to serve in the forces of the United States." See Attachment 15 for the Globe's account of Summers' recent statements, and see Attachment 16 for a Wall Street Journal "Review & Outlook" piece that applauded his Kennedy School remarks as a "profile in courage."

Hard times: There was further evidence last month of deteriorating budget conditions among the states. A survey released November 1 by the National Conference of State Legislatures indicated that revenues were running below expectations in 46 states, and described budget conditions in 16 of these states as "critical." In late November, a regional forecasting firm estimated that 20 states were officially in recession, 19 more were nearly so, and growth rates were running substantially below last year's levels in the rest. Budget cuts are underway or in the works in many of the states experiencing difficulty, and some higher education systems and institutions in those states are being hit hard. See Attachment 17 for details.

Salary matters: The Chronicle of Higher Education November 9 released the results of its latest annual survey of executive compensation at private U.S. colleges and universities. The survey covered the 2000 fiscal year. Overall, it found that the average salary for presidents at all classes of private institutions increased by 11.2 percent, to $207,130.

As usual, the most highly compensated president was an anomaly: the outgoing president of Hillsdale College, who received a deferred compensation payment that boosted his total annual compensation to $1.2 million. The two next-most-highly compensated presidents were also outgoing presidents of relatively obscure institutions: the president of the University of Bridgeport, who received $832,492, and the president of Dowling College, who received $788,430.

Next in the Chronicle's ranking was the University of Pennsylvania's Judith Rodin, who received total compensation of $698,325. She was followed by two other AAU presidents who also received total compensation topping $600,000: New York University's Jay Oliva, who received $650,746, and Johns Hopkins University's William Brody, who received $623,240.

See Attachment 18 for the Chronicle's report. Also see Attachment 19 for another Chronicle article that discusses the ways in which major public universities are increasingly relying on private funds to boost their presidents' compensation packages into ranges that are more competitive with the packages being offered at private universities.

Labor matters: Graduate student unionization efforts continued apace last month in both the private and public sectors. On the private side, a regional official of the National Labor Relations Board November 16 ruled that Brown University's graduate assistants are entitled to bargain collectively because they are essentially employees, not students. The ruling clears the way for some 450 graduate students at that institution to vote on whether they want the Brown Graduate Employees Organization to bargain on their behalf. The organization is affiliated with the United Auto Workers. See Attachment 20 for more details.

On the public side, several hundred graduate assistants at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign held a two-day strike November 28 and 29 to protest that institution's refusal to recognize their union. The university has maintained it will not decide on the matter until the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Board issues a final ruling on the question of whether unionization would be legal. See Attachment 21 for more on this.

Meanwhile, Harvard University last month announced it would spend an additional $4 million annually to expand graduate fellowships in the humanities and social sciences, and to allow science departments to phase out teaching requirements in the first year of Ph.D. study. See Attachment 22.

The University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center reported in November that the number of doctorates awarded by U.S. universities rose by 0.8 percent in 2000, to 41,368. Last year, the Center reported a slight decrease in the number of doctorates awarded in 1999, but that drop is now regarded as a temporary aberration. Overall, the Center said, the average annual rate of growth in Ph.D. awards has remained fairly consistent at about 1 percent since the mid-1990s, down from 2-3 percent during the first half of the decade.

Among different fields in 2000, the largest rise was in the life sciences, where the number of doctorates was up by 4.7 percent. Humanities doctorates were up by 3.3 percent. The biggest decline was in the physical sciences, where Ph.D. awards fell by 4.1 percent. This pattern is also consistent with recent trends. See Attachment 23 for fuller details.

AAU Notes:

Spreading the word: Vanderbilt University has launched a new "Dateline Vanderbilt" newsletter. The publication is being distributed on a bimonthly basis to the Tennessee congressional delegation, state and local government officials, business executives, journalists, and other opinion leaders. The idea is to provide a "quick roundup of news from and about Vanderbilt" to key individuals who do not otherwise receive a regular publication from the university. See Attachment 24 for a copy of the first issue.

Helping hand: Tulane University won kudos from the community for quickly providing temporary classroom space for 600 local elementary school students who were displaced when their school burned in mid-October. See Attachment 25 for details.

From presidential desks: See Attachment 26 for a November 13 Washington Post letter to the editor by Emory University president William Chace. The letter was written in response to an earlier Post article about "a growing number of professors and other college staff members facing censure for making controversial comments or taking visibly symbolic positions in the weeks following the [September 11] terrorist attacks." In his letter, Chace argued that "the reports of free speech and open debate being squelched on campuses across the country must disturb every American . . . . The free exchange of ideas is an essential part of education in our country."

Transitions: Martha Harris, the University of Southern California's vice president for university public relations, has been promoted to senior vice president for external relations. She succeeds Jane Pisano, who has left to become president of the Los Angeles County Natural History Museum. . . . Laura Massie has been named director of media relations at Case Western Reserve University. She was previously administrator, public information and media relations for the Ohio Board of Regents. Prior to that, she was coordinator for media relations for ten years at George Mason University.

-Peter Smith

Footnotes