Public Opinion Polls and Abortion:

The Continuing Good News!

By Dave Andrusko

The anniversary of Roe v. Wade, a Supreme Court decision whose impact remains undiminished 29 years later, not surprisingly persuaded the Gallup organization to revisit the ebbs and flows of public opinion regarding abortion. It did so in "An In-Depth Review" that appeared on its web site: http://www.gallup.com/.

Roe v. Wade's cavalier treatment of the tradition of careful jurisprudence reminds me of how the movie Animal House portrayed students' attitude toward the "life of the mind" on campus: it mocked, derided, and generally trashed everything that was held sacred. But nearly three decades after seven justices ushered in the regime of abortion on demand, what do ordinary citizens think of Roe?

While the thrust of the Gallup overview is of the "stability" of views on abortion, there's been intriguing change and all clearly in the direction of life. If you read the entire report--not just what amounts to the executive summary--you quickly see it's a motherlode of fascinating insights into the public's mind.

The best news by far is that the American people's overall view is far closer to our position than the pro-abortionists': people believe abortion should be legal "only under certain circumstances."

The Gallup headline read, "Americans Still Not Content With Abortion Laws," while the subhead adds, "But majority would keep abortion legal." So, what does that translate into?

First, when the 1,015 respondents were queried in early January whether abortion policies should stay the same or change, only 39% opted for the status quo. Nineteen percent wanted policies less strict but 39% wanted abortion policies more strict!

Second, beyond that, nearly three-fourths of the public rejects the reasons for all or most abortions. The impact of the congressional debate over partial-birth abortion in moving the public in a more pro-life direction would be difficult to exaggerate.

Prior to partial-birth abortion's public debut as an issue, the number of people who said they believed abortion should be legal in all circumstances had continued to grow steadily. In 1992 the figure had climbed to 34%.

But then the public's conscience was pierced by news of an abortion "procedure" so cold-blooded in made people's blood run cold. The congressional debate over partial-birth abortion began in mid-1995 and changed the public's view of abortion. And then, as Gallup put it, "Full media attention was brought to bear on the issue in April 1996, when President Clinton vetoed the bill for the first time."

By the next year, "[A] sharp reversal occurred, with a drop in the number holding the extreme pro-choice position (this fell to 22% by 1997) and more people taking the middle position--saying it should be legal under certain circumstances (peaking at 61% in 1997). Most recently Gallup has found about a quarter of Americans (26%) saying abortion should be legal in all cases, a little over half (56%) saying it should be legal in certain cases and 17% saying it should be illegal in all cases."

In other words, 73% [56% + 17%] said abortion should be illegal in all cases or legal only in certain cases.

Although it is not spelled out in this overview, in previous results fromGallup we saw that the public actually supports even fewer abortions.For example, in 1997 Gallup did a poll for CNN and USAToday. Some 22% said abortion should be legal under any circumstances, while 15% said abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, and 61% said abortion should be legal in "some circumstances."

When that subset of 61% was asked, "Should abortion be legal in most situations or only a few," only 12% said "most circumstances," while 48% said "in only a few."

Thus, when the numbers are examined more closely, 63% of the public believed abortion should either be illegal in all circumstances (15%) or legal only in a few circumstances (48%).

Gallup concludes,

"Given the timing of the shift, it appears that the debate over partial-birth abortion is the cause for this adjustment in public attitudes. It appears that partial-birth abortion became an important factor for Americans to consider when crystallizing their own positions on abortion."

In a word, like electroshock therapy, the grisly discussion over partial-birth abortion unclouded the minds of many Americans. (And, as we shall see, there are intimations in the Gallup results that the debate may continue to dislodge hardened pro-abortion sentiments.)

Third, as we head into state legislative sessions around the nation, we can know that the public is in our corner. Gallup reviewed polling data going back to 1996 and found that there is enormous support for many pro-life policies--typically two-thirds or more. They include support for informed consent, parental consent, waiting periods, and a ban on partial-birth abortions.

Moreover, as we look to the 2002 elections, Gallup reminds us that pro-lifers are much more disciplined voters. In most instances it helps candidates to be pro-life. This was brought home graphically in the 2000 presidential election. (See sidebar, this page.)

Finally, one of NRLC's priority items this year is to ban human cloning. (See story, page one.) In one of its graphics (but not discussed in the text) Gallup shows that 98% of respondents said human cloning should be generally illegal!

While that figure is the highest I've ever seen, the overwhelming opposition that it represents is in line with what all polls have shown. (See sidebar, this page.)

None of this, of course, is to suggest that the road ahead will not be littered with obstacles. The public still accepts abortions performed for certain specific reasons which taken all together account for less than 10% of all abortions.

But we have a strong pro-life President in the White House, a man who is genuinely one of us. Even more important, we have the greatest, most resilient, most tenacious grassroots movement of the past 30 years.

Unborn babies, children born with serious injuries, and the medically dependent elderly could not have greater champions.

dave andrusko can be reached at dha1245@juno.com

OPPOSITION TO CLONING:

WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT

The following are a number of recent polls on cloning, which can also be found at http://www.nrlc.org/Cloning/Bownbackletter103101.html.

ABC News/Beliefnet, August 8-12, 2001: "Should it be legal in the U.S. to clone humans?" Yes, 11%. No, 87% (men 16%/82%, women 6%/93%). "Clone humans for medical treatments?" Yes, 33%. No, 63% (men 41%/56%, women 27%/70%).

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, August 3-5, 2001: The federal government should fund research on stem cells from embryos cloned from human cells [percentage that approves] 28%.

International Communications Research, June 1-5, 2001: "Should scientists be allowed to use human cloning to try to create children for infertile couples?" Yes, 12%. No, 85%. "Should scientists be allowed to use human cloning to create a supply of human embryos to be destroyed in medical research?" Yes, 10%. No, 86%.

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, April 18-19, 2001: "As you may know, scientists have made advances in cloning, where they can reproduce a whole animal from a single cell. Do you think it is acceptable to use cloning to: Reproduce humans?" Acceptable, 6%. Not acceptable, 90%.

Time/CNN, Feb. 7-8, 2001: "In general, do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to clone human beings?" Good idea, 7%. Bad idea, 90%.

"Do you think scientists should be allowed to clone human beings or don't you think so?" Should be allowed, 10%. Should not be allowed, 88%.

ABORTION AND VOTING BEHAVIOR

Gallup, correctly, observes that most people do not consider abortion the most important issue. However, it should be noted that in the 2000 presidential election people ranked abortion higher than the environment, health care, prescription drugs, maintaining a budget surplus, and foreign affairs.

According to Gallup,

"Among the minority of Americans who are highly motivated on the abortion issue, the pro-life side has the edge, as those opposed to abortion tend to feel more strongly about their position and are more likely to base their vote choices on it than are those in favor of abortion rights."

How important was abortion to George W. Bush? The highest percentage ever recorded by Gallup - - 14% - - said abortion was one of the most important issues in deciding whom to vote for. Pro-life George W. Bush enjoyed a net benefit of 2.4% thanks to his stand in favor of life, crucial in an election that was almost unimaginably close.

How did Gallup arrive at a net plus for Mr. Bush of 2.4%?

Of the 14% who said abortion was one of the most important issues in deciding whom to vote for, 58% went for pro-life Mr. Bush, while 41% voted for pro-abortion Mr. Gore. Gallup included the following chart.

Impact of Abortion Issue on 2000 Voters for President

Abortion Voters Supporting Bush (58% of 14%) 8.1%

Abortion Voters Supporting Gore 5.7%
(41% of 14%)

Net Abortion Vote for Bush +2.4%

In a contest settled by a hair's breadth, one can easily argue that abortion was decisive for then-Governor, now President Bush.