06-22-2002

POLITICS: Hot Topics

What are the red-hot issues in the nation's hardest-fought
campaigns?


To find out, National Journal examined the 13 Senate races, 47 House
races, and 21 gubernatorial races that in April our Cook Election Preview
deemed most likely to be truly competitive this fall. Thirty issues ranked
among the top four concerns in two or more races:


Abortion


Neither party appears eager to push abortion into the center of the
midterm election dialogue. Democrats desperately want to improve their
appeal to culturally conservative rural voters, and Republicans worry
about alienating moderate housewives and professional women in swing
suburban districts. And both sides would prefer to vie for those
constituencies without the abortion issue as a major backdrop. That mutual
desire helps explain why neither the House nor the Senate has had a
high-profile vote on abortion in the 107th Congress. Nevertheless,
individual candidates will try to use abortion as a wedge with groups that
could hold the key to their contests. In many cases, abortion will be used
as a surrogate issue to describe an opponent as somehow out of touch with
the values of voters.


For instance, Illinois's GOP gubernatorial nominee, state Attorney General
Jim Ryan, has run television ads downstate hitting his Democratic rival,
Chicago Rep. Rod R. Blagojevich, on social issues-including Blagojevich's
opposition to laws requiring parental notification when minors seek an
abortion-as a way of reminding rural voters of what Ryan calls "big
differences" between the two men. Abortion is also primed to come up
in some of the competitive statewide contests in Kansas, Minnesota, and
Pennsylvania and in other places where it is a perennial hot
button.


Agriculture


Agriculture doesn't rank high in the minds of most urban and suburban
voters, but in predominantly rural states, it's always a leading campaign
issue. This year, agriculture is expected to be a front-burner issue in
competitive races in at least nine states. Farm-focused races-including
many House and Senate as well as gubernatorial contests-have sprouted in
every quadrant of the nation. Candidates are wooing the producers of farm
commodities ranging from milk (Pennsylvania's 17th District) to oranges
(Florida's 5th).


Many suburbanites assailed the recently passed farm bill as a budget
buster, but the legislation is playing well in many rural areas. As the
campaign season progresses, farm bill supporters will no doubt continue to
trumpet their role in helping the locals and to castigate candidates who
opposed it. In South Dakota, a corporate-farming referendum that's made it
onto the general election ballot might influence several races.


Anti-Terrorism: Here's dispiriting news for the GOP: The public support
for the Bush administration's handling of the war on terrorism doesn't
seem to be driving most of the nation's competitive races. In the
smattering of contests in which homeland security, patriotism, and 9/11
recovery efforts are playing significant roles, those issues have grabbed
the spotlight mainly because of local or personal factors, not national
ones.


Voters in Washington's 2nd District, for example, are concerned about
military spending and border security mostly because the area is home to
many defense workers and because it stretches to the Canadian border.
Connecticut's 2nd District, in the eastern part of the state, also
includes many defense contractors, and first-term GOP Rep. Robert Simmons
is touting his background-he won two Bronze Stars in Vietnam and also
served in the CIA-in his re-election campaign. Similarly, in Kansas's 3rd
District, GOP hopeful Adam Taff-a former naval officer, fighter pilot, and
United Airlines pilot-has emphasized military preparedness and blasted
flag-burning; his opponent, Rep. Dennis Moore, has voted against banning
flag-burning.


And in New York-the state hit hardest on September 11, both economically
and emotionally-the gubernatorial candidates are paying close attention to
the recovery efforts and steps to make New York City safer from terrorism.
Democratic hopefuls Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo have criticized certain
proposals to rebuild Lower Manhattan, and McCall has criticized GOP Gov.
George E. Pataki for not addressing the spread of airborne pollutants from
Ground Zero.


Bringing Home the Bacon


As always, pork is a weighty issue, particularly for candidates from
hard-pressed states. In her fight for re-election, Sen. Mary L. Landrieu,
D-La., is emphasizing her seat on the Appropriations Committee. In New
Mexico, which is hugely dependent on federal spending, Democratic
gubernatorial candidate Bill Richardson is touting himself as an
experienced Washington hand who can keep the money spigot turned
on.


The war on terrorism hasn't restrained lawmakers from larding up
legislation-even anti-terrorism appropriations-with unrelated pet
projects. Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., added $150 million for summer
school programs to a $27.1 billion anti-terrorism package. Two House
Republicans from the Carolinas, Jim DeMint and Robin Hayes, got textile
import provisions added to the same bill. President Bush threatened a
veto-something few took seriously after he signed the king pork barrel
bill of the year, a $191 billion farm bill loved by grateful Farm Belt
incumbents of both parties. "It is unfortunate that in a time of war
my colleagues cannot curb their appetites," said Sen. John McCain,
R-Ariz. "We're going to go after this pork barrel spending and go
after it and after it." But it's unlikely that Congress will ever
lose its appetite for pork.


Carpetbagging


Every 10 years, states' redistricting battles claim some casualties. This
time around, most states drew maps that strengthened incumbents of both
parties, but the rejiggered boundaries of some congressional districts
have forced candidates to answer questions about the strength of their
ties to their new constituency. In Indiana's 2nd District, for example,
former Rep. Jill Long Thompson, a Democratic contender, points out that
Republican candidate Chris Chocola lives slightly outside the district and
will not be able to vote for himself. In Minnesota, four-term Democratic
Rep. Bill Luther faces carpetbagger charges, following his Hamlet-like
period of indecision about whether to run in the 2nd or the 6th
Congressional District. He ultimately chose the 6th, and while it includes
much of his old territory, Luther has had to begin looking for a residence
there.


Carpetbagger charges are also flying in Iowa, which-alone among the
states-draws its new districts by paying attention only to population
totals and county lines, instead of looking at voters' party registration.
Iowa's technique often produces drastic changes in the congressional map.
Several congressional candidates-including Democrats Rep. Leonard Boswell
and John Norris, a former aide to Iowa's Democratic governor, Tom
Vilsack-have only recently moved into their districts and are facing
questions about whether they know the territory well enough to represent
it in Congress.


Control of Congress


Because all politics is local, in voters' minds, a candidate's
personality, ideology, and record usually trump the issue of which party
will control the House or the Senate. But with Congress divided so
closely, some candidates are raising party control as a pivotal issue in
this election.


In New York's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Timothy Bishop, a
political novice, has charged that first-term GOP Rep. Felix Grucci hews
too closely to the Republican line for his swing district. Grucci responds
that he's broken ranks with his party on such issues as campaign finance
reform and worker-safety rules. In Pennsylvania's suburban 13th District,
it's a Democrat, Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel III, who's accused of being on the
wrong side of the partisan divide, as GOP nominee Melissa Brown, an
ophthalmologist, charges that the district needs a better (i.e.,
Republican) pipeline to the Bush administration.


In Maryland's solidly Democratic 8th District, several Democratic
candidates are vying for the right to challenge GOP Rep. Constance A.
Morella. They argue that Morella's moderate stands don't make up for the
fact that she helps keep conservative Republicans in control of the House.
And in South Dakota, the hotly contested race between Democratic Sen.
Timothy P. Johnson and his Republican challenger, Rep. John Thune, is
likely to become a proxy battle over whether the Democrats-and especially
Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle of South Dakota-should keep control of
the Senate.


Defense Spending


In a few competitive House races, defense spending, which is strong
Republican turf, is a key issue. A May 28 and 29 poll conducted by the
Gallup Organization found that 59 percent of those surveyed said the GOP
is the party better able to handle military and defense issues. Only 23
percent called the Democratic Party better on defense.


One vulnerable GOP incumbent, North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes, can point
to his seat on the House Armed Services Committee to highlight his support
for the military. That may not put him on the front lines of the war on
terrorism, but for a lot of voters it may be close enough. Given the broad
public support for the war, most Democratic candidates probably won't
choose to spar with Republicans over the defense budget. But some
Democrats in friendly territory are trying to score a few points on the
issue. Democrat Ann Hutchinson is challenging GOP Rep. Jim Nussle in
Iowa's 1st District, which includes traditionally dovish Dubuque and its
surroundings. Hutchinson challenges the Bush administration's increased
spending on defense and its tapping of the Social Security trust fund to
pay for other government programs.


Diversity


Dario Herrera is the face of the future. A Cuban-American who moved to Las
Vegas to study hotel management, Herrera married a local Anglo woman,
converted to the Mormon faith, and entered Nevada politics. He's a
Democrat running in one of Nevada's two swing districts. In the other, the
likely GOP nominee is Lynette Boggs McDonald, an African-American woman
who, if she wins, will be the only black female Republican in Congress: Of
the 37 black lawmakers in the House, all but one are Democrats. Of 19
Hispanics in the House, 16 are Democrats. All six Asians in Congress (four
in the House, two in the Senate) are Democrats. And of the 73 women in
both chambers, 52 are Democrats.


Republicans know that such numbers pose a long-term problem, but their
party is still running way behind in producing diverse slates. Texas
Republicans are fielding three statewide black candidates this year: One
is running for railroad commissioner, the others for the state Supreme
Court. But Texas Democrats boast a much more visible "Dream
Ticket" of former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk and Laredo oilman Tony
Sanchez. Kirk, who is black, is running for the Senate. Sanchez would be
Texas's first Hispanic governor-but almost certainly not its last.


Education


Education is an important issue in only a handful of closely contested
House and Senate races, but it is a key factor in fully two-thirds of this
year's tight gubernatorial contests. At the federal level, the debate is
generally over how much money it will take to effectively implement the
education package that Congress passed and President Bush signed into law
in January. Democrats contend that Bush and his fellow Republicans don't
want to spend what's required. At the state level, the education issue
takes many forms and has a much more direct impact on the lives of voters
and their families.


In rural states, such as Maine and South Dakota, candidates tout education
as a way to spur economic development and keep residents from leaving to
seek better job opportunities. Massachusetts and Michigan are embroiled in
debates over student testing. In Florida, where the population is booming,
election issues include reducing class size and providing early-childhood
education in pre-kindergarten programs. In New Hampshire and Pennsylvania,
voters want relief from the high property taxes that fund schools. Vermont
and Wyoming are under court orders to come up with more-equitable funding
schemes for their school districts. And even in states where specific
education issues don't headline the political debate, polls show that
improving education is one of the goals that are uppermost in voters'
minds.


Employment/Economic Development


Jobs and economic development are big issues in most election years, but
they are especially important in the first election since the high-tech
bubble burst and the stock market took a dive. The current slowdown has
voters more jittery about the economy than at any time since the end of
the early-1990s recession. Economic concerns are running especially high
in places that never experienced the `90s boom. In half of the most
competitive gubernatorial races, economic growth is among the top four
issues.


In Alaska, Maine, New Mexico, and Wyoming-states with vast natural
resources and few people-voters are increasingly eager to diversify their
economies beyond the extraction of timber, oil, and minerals. In South
Dakota, voters are worried about population losses that threaten the
survival of some rural communities. In Pennsylvania, Democratic
gubernatorial nominee Ed Rendell wants to bring to his entire state the
policies that powered an economic rebirth in Philadelphia during his
tenure as mayor. In Hawaii, residents are sick of the fallout from a weak
tourism market.


Even states that generally fared well during the 1990s are feeling
pressure in areas where economic development has lagged. In New York and
Vermont, for example, the economy is a central issue in competitive
gubernatorial races. In Arizona and North Carolina, House candidates are
talking about the importance of jobs and growth.


Environment


On the grassroots level, environmental concerns tend to be very local
indeed. In Washington state's 3rd District, for example, a key issue in
the House race is whether to deepen the Columbia River for large ships-and
risk damaging the salmon habitat. In Alabama, Republican Rep. Bob Riley is
fending off complaints about a lack of federal leadership in dealing with
a Monsanto plant that dumped PCBs onto the soil. In Colorado's Senate
race, Republican incumbent Wayne Allard is finding that his vote for
drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is costing him
conservationists' support, even though he crafted the legislation to
convert Rocky Flats, a former nuclear weapons facility, into a wildlife
refuge.


In other states, the green label is a hindrance with voters who fear that
environmentalism jeopardizes job creation. In Alaska, "outside
influences" is code for meddling, out-of-state environmentalists. But
even in liberal Vermont, all three gubernatorial candidates agree that the
state's controlling environmental legislation has inappropriately kept
businesses from setting up shop there. Likewise, Hawaii's GOP
gubernatorial nominee, Linda Lingle, has challenged a Democratic proposal
to establish a mandatory, state-run bottle recycling and deposit system,
arguing that it wouldn't create true markets for the recycled
bottles.


Experience and Clout


In the watershed election year of 1994, the electorate was in an
anti-incumbent mood. Now-in a time of war and uncertainty-voters seem
reassured by politicians with experience. In Louisiana, Democratic Sen.
Mary L. Landrieu emphasizes her seat on the influential Appropriations
Committee. Former Rep. Jay Dickey, R-Ark., similarly brags of a
"promise" from House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., that he
will rejoin Appropriations if voters send him back to Washington. In
Alaska's gubernatorial race, GOP Sen. Frank Murkowski is emphasizing his
record on behalf of his state, but his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Fran
Ulmer, counters that she's been working at home while he's has been far
away in Washington.


In a few contests, both candidates are spotlighting their experience. In
the Arkansas Senate contest, for example, first-term GOP Sen. Tim
Hutchinson and state Attorney General Mark Pryor, a Democrat, both cite
their accomplishments as public servants. And in Florida, Republican Gov.
Jeb Bush and his leading Democratic challenger, former U.S. Attorney
General Janet Reno, will duel over who has the better track record. In a
handful of races, redistricting will force House incumbents to square off
in November. In Connecticut, Republican Rep. Nancy L. Johnson and
Democratic Rep. James H. Maloney are battling over whose congressional
experience is more valuable to voters, while five-term Rep. Tim Holden,
D-Pa., claims that, at age 45, he makes up in vigor for what 10-term Rep.
George W. Gekas, R-Pa., at age 72, holds in seniority.


Gambling


Slot machines and blackjack tables won't be issues in congressional races
this fall, but they could change the stakes in a few gubernatorial
contests. As states look for ways to solve their budget problems, cashing
in on revenues from casinos or lotteries is an attractive alternative to
raising taxes or cutting spending.


Gambling fever is particularly acute in New England, where the
Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation of Connecticut established the lucrative
Foxwoods Casino several years ago. The gambling complex is only a short
drive over the border for residents of several neighboring states, so it's
no surprise that Indian tribes in Maine and Rhode Island, along with
politicians in both parties, wonder why they shouldn't encourage gamblers
in their states to do their betting at home. In Alabama, embattled
Democratic Gov. Don Siegelman is still pushing for a state lottery,
despite objections from many social conservatives, as a way to fund the
lagging educational system. And in Pennsylvania, Democratic gubernatorial
nominee Ed Rendell wants to allow slot machines at racetracks to raise
revenue to ease the property tax burden.


Gay Rights


In a few states, gay and lesbian rights could become a factor in the
governor's race. In his advertising, Illinois GOP gubernatorial nominee
Jim Ryan, the state attorney general, says that he opposes "legal
recognition of same-sex partners." The Democratic nominee, Rep. Rod
R. Blagojevich, supports health insurance benefits for domestic partners
of gay government workers but opposes same-sex marriage. Ryan is using the
issue, as he is using abortion, to try to drive a wedge between
Blagojevich and culturally conservative voters downstate.


But not all Republicans are running away from gay civil rights. New York
Republican Gov. George E. Pataki extended state benefits to the partners
of gay men and lesbians who died in the September 11 terrorist attacks on
the World Trade Center. And in the governor's race in Maine, Democratic
Rep. John Baldacci has called for outlawing job discrimination based on
sexual orientation. Maine's GOP gubernatorial nominee, businessman Peter
Cianchette, has said he would leave the issue up to voters.


Gun Control


One of the rare issues that activists on each side think works for them is
gun control. Both sides can't be right. Or can they? The answer,
essentially, depends on where you live. In Pennsylvania's gubernatorial
election, the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence's candidate, Ed Rendell,
bested the National Rifle Association's choice, Bob Casey Jr., but that
was in a Democratic primary. Pro-gun forces are regrouping for the general
election in a state that issues a million hunting licenses a year. In
Maryland and California, Democratic gubernatorial candidates are
benefiting from the support of anti-gun groups, and in Ohio, Democratic
legislators have complained that the GOP is delaying a deal to legalize
concealed weapons until after the election in order to protect Republican
Gov. Bob Taft.


Yet in rural states or districts, including many in the South and West, it
is Democrats who are running for cover. Two years ago, Kalyn Free, who is
running in Oklahoma's 3rd District, campaigned for a tougher Democratic
national platform plank on gun control. Today, she lists opposing gun
control as one of her top "priorities and passions." Sen. Max
Cleland, D-Ga., is planning a July 2 news conference and rally at a
skeet-shooting range with a group called Sportsmen for Cleland.


Health Care


Health care policy struggles-a Medicare prescription drug benefit, a
patients' bill of rights, and what, if anything, government should do to
help more people get health insurance-are now part of the political
landscape everywhere. But these issues are of particular significance in
states or swing districts that are poor or loaded with retirees. Sen. Jean
Carnahan, D-Mo., is stressing her support for patients' rights. Rep. John
Baldacci, D-Maine, is making a universal state-level health care system a
keystone of his gubernatorial race. In Massachusetts, where Medicaid costs
are strapping the state budget, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Robert
Reich and Warren Tolman have done the same. New Hampshire Democratic
gubernatorial hopeful Beverly Hollingworth is proposing a $1-a-pack
increase in cigarette taxes, with the proceeds to go for health
care.


And there are more-specialized health care issues at play in some races as
well. Carnahan has been criticized by her challenger, former Rep. Jim
Talent, for her position on cloning, an issue that has also cropped up in
South Dakota and Utah. In Arizona's sprawling 1st Congressional District,
candidates told National Journal that the perpetual shortages of doctors
and hospitals, a problem exacerbated by consolidations and rising
malpractice insurance rates, is a key election issue this year. The same
is true in Wyoming. In Michigan, Republican Gov. John Engler's discussion
of switching state employees from Blue Cross Blue Shield to other
insurance companies has put his would-be Republican heir on the
defensive.


Ideology


Generally, ideology becomes a major issue when politicians are
successfully portrayed as clearly out of step with their constituencies.
But that is not easy to do, as politicians are pretty good at covering
their election-year fannies. Louisiana Republicans were licking their
chops, for instance, at the opportunity to run against Democratic Sen.
Mary L. Landrieu after she voted in favor of the McCain-Feingold campaign
finance legislation and against the confirmation of Attorney General John
D. Ashcroft. But, as her aides were quick to point out, Landrieu also
voted for the Bush tax cut, for the repeal of the estate tax, and for
rescinding the 11th-hour Clinton administration regulations on workplace
safety. "Why didn't she vote that conservatively the first four
years?" asked her challenger, Rep. John Cooksey.


It's a question a lot of challengers, including Rep. Saxby Chambliss, the
likely GOP opponent to Sen. Max Cleland, D-Ga., are asking, now that
President Bush's job-approval rating is at 70 percent. Conversely,
unpopular California Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, in trouble over
fundraising practices, is hoping to win re-election by portraying GOP
challenger William Simon Jr. as an anti-tax, anti-abortion-rights, pro-gun
"extremist."


Immigration


Before 9/11, Mexican President Vicente Fox was President Bush's top
international ally-nobody else was close-and Mexico was his favorite
foreign country. War changed all that. It derailed Bush's desire for
another round of legalization for resident aliens and took Latin America
off the White House agenda so thoroughly that the administration came off
looking disengaged during Venezuela's abortive coup. Fox has even grumbled
about Bush's inattention to "migration issues," comments that
received widespread favorable attention in New Mexico's 1st Congressional
District, which is 43 percent Hispanic. The same pro-immigration dynamic
is at work in New Mexico's 2nd, another swing district, where ranchers
want to relax guest-worker restrictions.


In much of the rest of the nation, however, the impetus is toward
tightening the nation's borders, not facilitating immigration. Border
security is the key issue in Washington's sprawling 2nd District, which
runs along the Canadian border. The Immigration and Naturalization
Services added 100 new agents to the Blaine border crossing, with more to
come, but the feds haven't put money into prosecuting and jailing the
suspected bad guys caught there. This has become a thorn in the side of
local authorities. It is also an issue that Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen is
using to good effect.


Labor Unions


In many political campaigns, labor unions play a crucial but low-profile
role: activating their well-oiled infrastructure to get out the vote for
favored candidates, most of them Democrats. Such behind-the-scenes clout
is often crucial. Business groups, which tend to lean Republican, still
trail labor on this political front. To be sure, in most jurisdictions, a
candidate's position on issues of special interest to labor is not
headline-making news, if only because relatively few voters belong to
unions these days. Still, in a couple of House districts, politicians'
stances on labor issues could be decisive.


In California's 18th Congressional District, now represented by lame-duck,
scandal-plagued Democrat Gary Condit, Republican state Sen. Dick Monteith
is targeting the pro-union background of Democratic Assemblyman Dennis
Cardoza. The conservative, rural district has witnessed bitter clashes
between the United Farm Workers and the big produce growers. Meanwhile,
Michigan's 10th Congressional District, which is chock-full of
"Reagan Democrat" union members, has been riven by a conflict
between two labor powerhouses: the AFL-CIO, which backs Democrat Carl
Marlinga, and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which supports
Republican Candice Miller. Marlinga has dug up an old quote by Miller
comparing unions to communism. Miller retorts that her daughter is a
member of the United Auto Workers.


Natural Resources


In Alaska's gubernatorial race, the only way drilling in the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge will arise as a campaign issue is if Sen. Frank
Murkowski, the Republican nominee, or his opponent, Democratic Lt. Gov.
Fran Ulmer, accuses the other candidate of not doing enough to make it
happen. Such is the landscape in Alaska-and in several other Western
states, which retain an ethic of wanting to develop their mineral, gas,
and timber deposits and keep the fisheries thriving for sportsmen and
revenue-generation. In Arizona's 1st Congressional District, the Arizona
Mining Association is pulling hard for Republican challenger Sydney Hay.
When 1,300 acres burned last month near Prescott (home to the
"World's Oldest Rodeo"), Democratic candidate Steve Udall
complained that the government must do a better job of protecting Western
forests.


In Washington state's 3rd District, resentments over the "owls versus
loggers" battles still linger; the local Democratic congressman is
proceeding carefully over the issue of whether to support traditional Army
Corps of Engineer construction plans-or environmentalists' attempts to
rectify the environmental damage caused by such water projects. In a case
of enviro-nepotism, President Bush stepped in to help Florida Gov. Jeb
Bush's re-election effort by finding federal dollars-$235 million worth-to
preserve the Everglades from further oil and gas drilling.


Personal History and Style


Parties that have recruited candidates with compelling life stories or
political skills have an advantage even in elections in which the
political tide is running against them. Although Sen. Max Cleland, D-Ga.,
who lost both legs and an arm in Vietnam, may not mention his battlefield
wounds, he continues to benefit from his history of wartime valor. In
Pennsylvania, the Democrats' energetic gubernatorial nominee, former
Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell, has opened up a wide charisma gap over
mild-mannered Republican nominee Mike Fisher. But Rendell could suffer if
the Fisher camp manages to portray the urban mayor as too
"big-city" for rural voters.


Senate candidates Erskine Bowles of North Carolina and Tom Strickland of
Colorado will likely play down aspects of their resumes. In conservative
North Carolina, Bowles's service as President Clinton's chief of staff
could hurt him in voters' eyes. In Colorado, the hot potato will be former
federal prosecutor Strickland's stint as a lawyer-lobbyist. In New Mexico,
the gubernatorial showdown pits two charismatic Hispanics. Democrat Bill
Richardson is working to justify his long absence from the state while
serving in the federal government by contrasting it with Republican John
Sanchez's scant experience in politics. And in Minnesota, the No. 1 issue
will undoubtedly be larger-than-life Gov. Jesse Ventura, the ex-pro
wrestler who gives new meaning to the word "independent" and has
decided against seeking a second term.


President Bush


George W. Bush's name won't be on the ballot this fall, but his unusually
high job-approval ratings are prompting some Republican candidates in
close contests to remind voters that they-and not their Democratic
opponents-are on W.'s team. That argument tends to crop up in states and
congressional districts that Bush carried in 2000 and in predominantly
rural areas. Most GOP strategists suspect that even the popular Bush won't
have long coattails that Republican candidates can ride to victory. But in
midterm elections, when many presidents' popularity has sagged, just
having the guy in the Oval Office not be a liability is a plus for
candidates on his side.


Some Republicans in tight races argue that Democrats will stymie the
president's agenda if they maintain their control of the Senate or seize
power in the House. Even some vulnerable Democrats are running ads
featuring side-by-side shots of themselves with Bush-sending voters the
message that they are not running against the popular president. But many
voters instinctively like divided government, and polls indicate that most
Americans think the Democrats are cooperating enough with Bush.


Retiree Benefits


Democrats view Social Security as the gift that keeps on giving-not only
in retirement checks for seniors but in political rewards on Election Day.
This year, the party is issuing boilerplate press releases attacking House
and Senate Republicans for "breaking the Social Security trust."
Some of the evidence is dubious-voting to fund a Social Security
commission, for example, or voting for President Bush's wartime budget-but
the issue with legs may be privatization. Bush and many fellow
conservatives favor giving Americans the option of putting aside a portion
of their Social Security payroll taxes into private investment accounts.
But the rationale for how this would help retirees is difficult to
explain-and easy to assail.


Most Republicans are unlikely to be hurt by this issue, but some will
suffer. A prime target may be Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., R-Fla. He chairs a
Social Security subcommittee, represents a lot of retirees, and won by
fewer than 1,000 votes in 2000. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is
another incumbent who is threatened by a Democratic onslaught on this
issue. So is Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, R-Conn., who has been thrown into a
district with Democratic Rep. James H. Maloney.


Scandal/Integrity


Questions about a candidate's public and personal integrity have a way of
grabbing voters' attention. In Arkansas, Sen. Tim Hutchinson's re-election
prospects are clouded by his having divorced his wife of 29 years and
married a former staffer. Broken promises can also come back to haunt a
candidate. Sen. Paul Wellstone, D-Minn., has lost some of his public
approval for seeking a third term in office after pledging that he would
only serve 12 years. He is also caught up in a controversy over whether he
has broken his own rules about what sorts of campaign contributions he
will accept. In Hawaii, the state's awarding of some no-bid airport
construction contracts to political cronies has persuaded some voters that
40 years is long enough for Democrats to run the statehouse.


And in Illinois, even though there's no evidence that GOP gubernatorial
nominee Jim Ryan, the state attorney general, had anything to do with the
1998 campaign finance scandal that has engulfed Gov. George H. Ryan,
Democrats charge that Jim Ryan should have taken the lead in probing the
incumbent. An ad by Illinois's Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Rep. Rod
R. Blagojevich, shows the two Ryans side by side and criticizes "the
Ryans' legacy" of "scandal after scandal." Meanwhile, both
the Democratic and Republican nominees seeking to represent New Mexico's
1st Congressional District, which includes a rehabilitation center for
Catholic priests swept up in the church's sex scandal, have embraced the
local Catholic hierarchy.


State Budget Woes


Since the fading of the economic boom of the late 1990s, at least 40
states have had to struggle to balance their books. "I call it, `Back
to economic reality,' " said Connecticut GOP Gov. John G. Rowland,
chairman of the Republican Governors Association. "We're back on the
ground now. How governors handle this issue-Do they increase taxes? Hold
the line on spending?-that gets everybody's attention."


States have looked at just about everything on the spending side to avoid
raising revenues. Some, such as Rhode Island, have already begun to spend
money they have yet to receive from the national settlement with tobacco
companies. Others have been forced to make deep cuts. Tennessee, for
example, chopped $400 million from its K-12 education budget. And then
there's always the "tomorrow" strategy, in which a state (New
York) goes heavily into the bond market to finance its spending and avoid
raising taxes.


The economic issues are playing against the GOP in most states. Democrats'
solutions for solving the fiscal woes might not be any more brilliant than
Republicans', but Democrats, for the most part, are not the ones in the
fiscal hot seats. In nearly all of the states that have a competitive
gubernatorial race and a budget in the red, the GOP now controls the
governorship.


Taxes (Federal)


Taxes often make for a clear-cut dividing line between candidates. That's
especially true this year, following congressional passage of President
Bush's tax-cut package. Not surprisingly, most Republicans are boasting of
their support for the cuts. Federal taxes are expected to be a major
campaign issue for such Republican Senate hopefuls as Rep. Saxby Chambliss
in Georgia, Rep. Greg Ganske in Iowa, Rep. John Thune in South Dakota,
former Gov. Lamar Alexander in Tennessee, and state Attorney General John
Cornyn in Texas.


Democratic hopefuls counter that the Bush tax cut was fiscally
irresponsible, a message that might resonate in Democratic-leaning urban
and suburban areas. More than anything, Democrats are hoping they can make
their argument in a way that doesn't leave them vulnerable to charges of
being old-fashioned, tax-and-spend pols.


Taxes (State)


How politically sensitive is the issue of state taxes? So sensitive that
even in House races in Tennessee and the Senate contest in New Hampshire,
the controversy over state taxes is a major part of the debate. When it
comes to balancing state budgets, raising taxes is usually the last
resort.


In Tennessee, the budget crisis is so severe that the normally anti-tax
GOP incumbent, Gov. Don Sundquist, who is prevented from seeking
re-election because of term limits, has proposed a state income tax.
Sundquist's move produced a rare display of bipartisanship among leading
gubernatorial contenders: They all vowed to seek repeal of any law
establishing such a tax. The candidates would rather try to squeeze money
out of the state's TennCare medical program, which serves Medicaid
beneficiaries. Some gubernatorial candidates favor raising other kinds of
levies, such as the cigarette tax, but only enough to fund specific
programs-education or prescription drugs for the elderly, for
example.


Time for a Change


Enough, already! That's a major theme this year in several gubernatorial
races as candidates in the party out of power try to fuel voters' sense
that it's time for new leadership. In some cases, challengers are
aggressively zeroing in on an embattled governor-Alabama Democrat Don
Siegelman, for example-who is seeking re-election. In other contests, an
out-party candidate is trying to tar an opponent with a predecessor's
real, or imagined, sins. That tactic is being used against Illinois
Republican Jim Ryan, who's trying to succeed scandal-plagued GOP Gov.
George H. Ryan. In Hawaii, Linda Lingle may well seize the governor's
chair for the GOP for the first time in four decades, riding an
anti-Democratic wave so strong that even longtime Democratic Sen. Daniel
K. Inouye is accusing his party of "complacency and arrogance."
And in Wisconsin and Michigan, long-serving but obscure understudies are
having trouble selling themselves as heirs to popular Republican
governors.


In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott McCallum, who took office after Tommy G. Thompson
was tapped to lead the Health and Human Services Department, has had a
rough year in office. Michigan Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus is finding weak
support for the idea that Gov. John Engler's 12 years in office are a
reason that voters should reward Posthumus with four years of his own. And
Democrats in both races are all too eager to play the "change"
card.


Trade


The prominence of trade issues in the national political debate diminished
during the 1990s, as did the appeal of protectionism. After all, President
Clinton, a Democrat, pushed the North American Free Trade Agreement over
the finish line. And the soaring economy of the last half of the decade
softened the adverse effects of surging imports on specific sectors of the
U.S economy. Now that the Democrats no longer hold the White House and the
economy has cooled off, some Democrats and their allies in the industrial
trade unions want to revive trade as a campaign issue.


Nationally, that's a heavy lift. The only competitive Senate contest in
which trade looms as a hot topic is in North Carolina, where textile mills
face-and some have already succumbed to-overseas competition. But the
leading contenders in that race, Clinton White House Chief of Staff
Erskine Bowles and former American Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole, are
longtime free-traders who now voice concern about unfair trading practices
and the loss of textile jobs. Anti-trade arguments might have the most
traction in several of 2002's battleground House races-in Indiana,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and West Virginia-where a steel or textile
mill closing has had, or would have, a big impact.


Yucca Mountain


Once, the plan to store high-level nuclear waste at the appropriately
named Yucca Mountain wasn't terribly controversial. Nevada was sparsely
populated, it needed jobs, and its desert had long been the site of the
testing of actual nuclear bombs. Well, that Nevada was a sleepy little
state with one House member and a handful of high schools. It is now a Sun
Belt haven that attracts some 5,000 new residents a month.


Two of Nevada's three districts are up for grabs, and even though all of
the major candidates are now opposed to opening the repository (Yucca
Mountain is located in Nye County about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas),
Democrats hope that some of the blame accrues to the GOP candidates on the
grounds that Republican Gov. Kenny C. Guinn has failed to derail the plan
and President Bush is pushing it. Emotions in Nevada are running high. Yet
Guinn and Bush continue to be quite popular there. In neighboring Utah,
Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson is trying to hold on to his radically altered
(and more Republican) district by pointing out that he was the only member
of the Utah delegation to oppose Yucca Mountain.


James A. Barnes, Carl M. Cannon, and Louis Jacobson

National Journal