While two federal agencies disagree on the size of the remaining budget surplus for FY 2001, both their forecasts project that Congress faces difficulty finding money for new spending the administration is seeking. The recent economic downturn, coupled with the tax cut enacted earlier this year, has severely reduced the budgetary surplus available outside Social Security. Although the Social Security surplus was routinely used in past years to help reduce the deficit, the FY 2002 budget resolution pledges to avoid the use of Social Security funds except to make reforms to Social Security itself.

The Office of Management and Budget last week announced that a $1 billion surplus outside of Social Security remains for FY 2001 (AASHTO Journal, August 24). The Congressional Budget Office this week presented a bleaker picture, predicting that the entire Medicare surplus and $9 billion of the Social Security surplus will be tapped in FY 2001. CBO further stated that a $2 billion surplus outside of Social Security would be realized in FY 2002.

The Washington Post reports that Congressional budget staff have indicated that to date, there has been no signal from the administration that the $661 billion contained in the FY 2002 budget resolution might be reduced in response to the new surplus figures. However, the Bush Administration is continuing to push for $18 billion in additional defense funding. It that is approved it could spur reductions to other programs. President Bush has also outlined other priorities for additional funding, including education and prescription drug benefits.

Congressional Democrats sent a letter to President Bush this week expressing concern over the possibility the Social Security surplus will need to be tapped, and asked the President to outline how the increase in defense and other spending can be accomplished.

Spending Bills Remain

All 13 FY 2002 appropriations bills still must be passed - which may prove difficult given the tightening budget picture. The President this week called on Congress to act first on the defense and education spending bills, to prevent possible cutbacks on those priorities during last-minute negotiations at the end of the year.

To date, the FY 2002 transportation spending bill is one of five appropriations measures that are ready for a House/Senate conference. The issue of allowing Mexican motor carriers to operate within the U.S. looms over the measure, with the administration standing firm in its threat to veto either the House or Senate versions in their current form. The House version retains a current restriction on Mexican motor-carrier operations beyond 20 miles of the border, while the Senate endorsed more than 20 conditions that carriers must meet before being allowed to operate within the U.S.

Conferees will also have to work out hundreds of project earmarks in each of the transportation bills. The Office of Management and Budget has expressed concern over $1.6 billion in project earmarks for more than 900 projects. OMB stated that the earmarking exceeds the FY 2001 spending bill by $300 million and 300 projects.

Other Bills May Feel Pinch

While the revised budget numbers may wreak havoc on the appropriations process for the remainder of the year, other legislative priorities may also fall prey to fiscal constraints. Proposed tax incentives to promote energy conservation and production may be reevaluated, as will other proposals that could reduce revenue or increase spending.

Some transportation legislation could be affected, such as a proposal by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) to redirect 2.5 cents of the tax on ethanol from the General Fund to the Highway Trust Fund, and a $12 billion bonding bill for Amtrak.

Economic Recovery Projected by CBO

Dr. Jeffrey Runge, Administrator of NHTSA, and Carol Carmody, Acting Chair of the NTSB, jointly released a five-year analysis of a national program to increase air bag safety in conjunction with Chuck Hurley, Executive Director of the Air Bag & Seat Belt Safety Campaign. The latter group was formed in 1996 following the deaths of 35 people, 26 of them children, as a result of air-bag deployments at relatively low vehicle speeds.

The study shows that deaths attributable to air bags have dropped by 90.3 percent among children and by at least 60 percent among adults. The trio pointed to a massive public information campaign, launched in response to the deaths, that urged parents to place their children - in age-appropriate restraints - in the back seats of vehicles and reminded front-seat-riding adults to use their lap safety belts in conjunction with the car airbags provided in many vehicles. No confirmed air bag fatalities have been reported in the first half of 2001, though five deaths are being investigated.

"While the number of passenger air bags on the road has tripled in the past five years, the rate of child deaths from air bags has dramatically declined," Hurley said. "Contributing to this result is a stunning change in self-reported behavior by drivers with passenger air bags who regularly transport children."

A June, 2001 survey of 600 drivers showed that no drivers of vehicles equipped with air bags reported placing children ages birth-4 in the front seat. Only 10 percent reported letting their kids, ages 5-12, ride in front of an air bag. However, the groups noted that fatality statistics still reveal some parents are letting their children ride unrestrained, regardless of what they tell pollsters.

Though the groups said they are gratified their message "Air Bag Safety Means: Buckle Everyone! Children in Back!" appears to have been received, they said more work is needed to make sure people buying older vehicles with "first-generation" air bags are also aware of potential health risks to unbelted adults, improperly restrained children and any young children riding in front seats.

Newer vehicles feature air bags equipped with sensors that regulate inflation according to the seat position of occupants to supply sufficient, but not excessive, force when they deploy. However, the groups warned, no air bag is risk-free: "All air bags, older or newer, can injure or kill if drivers and passengers do not use common sense," they said.

Though nationwide gasoline prices are up less than a penny compared with those a year ago, industry data released Tuesday shows U.S. gasoline inventories are getting significantly smaller as the high-travel Labor Day weekend approaches.

"If you're a refiner, it's a glorious end to the driving season," said Tom Kloza, director of the Oil Pricing Information Service in Lakewood, N.J. "If you're a consumer, you're probably annoyed."

The Citgo waiver temporarily relaxes standards on the gasoline sold by that refiner in the Midwest; the gasoline sold will not meet the full scope of air quality requirements. In exchange, EPA said, Citgo must pay the Treasury Department about 14 cents for every gallon of the non-conforming gasoline it sells. The lower-standard product is cheaper to make than the one that contains ingredients to quell smog-forming compounds, a summertime pollution response.

The goal is to help Citgo catch up with a production shortfall that began August 14, when a fire forced the closure of Citgo's 160,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Lemont, Illinois. The shortage caused by that closure has driven gasoline prices 22 cents per gallon higher, in Chicago and Milwaukee, than they were at the same time a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration, an arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.

"What's important now is to make sure we all start from the same principles," Vince Burgess, assistant commissioner for transportation safety with the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles, told the Washington Post. Virginia is spending $350,000 to retrain its 2,300 driver education staff in new approaches, the 15th state to take up a challenge from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to acknowledge changes in the skills and experience of driving.

Experts say the retooling approach is needed because of major advances in car technology such as anti-lock brakes, which require different reactions from drivers in emergencies, and steering-column air bags that give new importance to the placement of the driver's hands on the wheel. There are also fresh distractions, such as cell phones and in-car electronics, and the increasing problem of aggressive driving that can cause crashes.

NHTSA is reemphasizing driver's ed - a program that waned in many states for years based on assessments that it was not curbing disproportionate crash rates among youthful drivers. During the 1990s, safety experts focused instead on gradual licensing for teen drivers. But there is a recognition that changes in the highway environment require changes in instruction techniques.

For example, student drivers - once taught to place their hands on the steering wheel at the "10 o'clock and 2 o'clock" positions - now are told to grasp it at "8 o'clock and 4 o'clock" to prevent possible injury to arms if the air bag in a car's steering column deploys. They are being instructed on how to properly use anti-lock brakes in an emergency (press and hold; older-style brakes had to be pumped to prevent lockup) and to adjust the side-view mirror 15 degrees wider than traditionally to get a look at more than one traffic lane.

The students will be given information about proper use of carpool lanes, safe driving in work zones, differential centers of gravity on various vehicles, and awareness of circadian rhythms which can lead to drowsy driving, even in the middle of the day. Busy, successful teen males are disproportionately victims of drowsy-driving wrecks.

The deaths of more than 41,000 Americans a year on the nation's highways are a major public-health problem, Runge told reporters. If there were a disease killing that many people annually, and putting another 400,000 a year in hospitals, as traffic crashes do, there would be a public outcry for a "war" on that disease, he said.

Though government regulation can still make inroads in the death tolls, "some of the biggest gains still to be made are on the behavioral side," Runge said.

He also noted that increased seat-belt use in vehicles could save thousands more lives. Even though seat belt use has been increasing with time, 30 percent of automotive travelers in the U.S. still don't use the belts, he said. "That's nuts. If people would buckle up, that would make a difference overnight." NHTSA reported just this week that its latest survey of seat-belt use showed overall, U.S. usage has reached a new high of 73 percent. However, usage is slipping in the Northeast.

Asked about the recent controversy over traffic cameras that record red-light running and send tickets to drivers who do that, Runge said he isn't convinced by arguments the cameras infringe on people's freedom.

"My personal belief is that cameras are merely extensions of erecting red lights in the first place," Runge said. "I'm here to defend the people going through the green light."

Runge also spoke out on drunken drivers - who still account for 17,000 highway deaths a year despite more than a decade of concerted efforts by public and private organizations. Drunken driving "should be treated as a taboo, the same as child molesters," he said.

And Runge spoke out against road rage, or "arrogance," as he termed it, saying it seems to be a more common phenomenon in urban than in rural areas.

The competition, titled The Road Beckons: Best Practices for Byways, was sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the America's Byways Resource Center. Twenty-one states submitted 41 applications for the inaugural competition.

"The winning projects generate a sense of pride and enthusiasm for those involved, and provide terrific destinations for byways visitors," said John Horsley, AASHTO Executive Director. "Scenic byways are a key component in national tourism, and by getting out and exploring America, we help build a stronger economy."

Award-winning projects are: the San Juan Skyway Historic Preservation Project and Multimedia Package, Colorado; the Cumberland County Covered Bridge, Illinois; the Flint Hills Scenic Byway Overlook, Kansas; Memorial Point Overlook, Nevada; Lake Champlain Byways Interpretive Projects, New York and Vermont; Historic Columbia River Highway State Trail and Interpretive Panels and Preservation of Oregon Historic Coastal Bridges, Oregon; and Portraits in Time, Utah.

A publication highlighting the winning projects will be released at the 2001 AASHTO Annual Meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, November 30-December 4.