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Federal Document Clearing House
Congressional Testimony
August 2, 2001, Thursday
SECTION: CAPITOL HILL HEARING TESTIMONY
LENGTH: 2273 words
COMMITTEE:
SENATE COMMERCE, SCIENCE AND TRANSPORTATION
HEADLINE: FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
TESTIMONY-BY: PAUL R. PORTNEY, CHAIRMAN OF THE CAFE
COMMITTEE
AFFILIATION: BOARD ON ENERGY AND
ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
BODY: Full Committee Hearing
Testimony:
Hearing: Joint hearing with the Senate Committee on Commerce
on the Report of the National Academy of Sciences on the Effectiveness and
Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (
CAFE) Standards.
Date and Time: Thursday, August 2, 2001, 2:30 p.m.
Location:
Senate Hart Office Building, Room 216
Witness Name and Title: Dr. Paul
Portney, Chair, Committee on the Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average
Fuel Economy (
CAFE) Standards. President and Senior Fellow,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D. C.
Testimony:
Good
afternoon, Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee. I am Paul R. Portney,
President of Resources for the Future and Chair of the Committee on
Effectiveness and Impact of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards of the
National Research Council. The Research Council is the operating arm of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine, charted by Congress in 1863 to advise the government on
matters of science and technology. It is a pleasure to be here to introduce the
report on
CAFE standards. That is not a pro forma statement.
The last 6 months have been extremely demanding for the entire committee as well
as the NRC staff, and it is a genuine pleasure to see it end. This study was
requested by Congress last year to provide assistance in its decisions related
to fuel economy standards. Since we started in February 2001, the full committee
has met on a total of 17 days, and there have been an additional 11 subgroup
meetings. Quite an investment of time for a group of unpaid volunteers.
I would like to provide a brief overview of the report. This is really a
joint presentation. My colleagues from the committee, John Wise, Philip Sharp,
Adrian Lund, and David Greene may fill in the holes I leave in the presentation,
but on almost all issues, the committee reached unanimous conclusions. The
report is complicated, and I cannot do it justice in a few minutes. Therefore I
request that we include the Executive Summary as part of the record.
The
committee had a 3-part mission:
1. Determine the effect that
CAFE standards have had on fuel economy, and the impact on the
industry, consumers, safety, and other issues;
2. Estimate the impact
that changes to
CAFE standards might have in the future; and
3. Evaluate the structure of the CAFE program and recommend potential
improvements.
Review of the Current CAFE Program
Our review of
past and current impacts of
CAFE standards convinced us that
the program has significantly reduced fuel consumption. Other factors also have
been important, especially the reaction of consumers and the automotive industry
to higher fuel prices in the 1970s and early 1980s. The committee could not
apportion responsibility among these factors, but notes that CAFE was clearly
important. In recent years, CAFE indisputably played an important role in
maintaining higher fuel economy than would have resulted from the lower fuel
prices that prevailed for most of this period.
There have been adverse
consequences as well. Safety is most important. The majority of the committee
concludes that the downsizing and downweighting that occurred in the 1970s and
80s (partially in response to CAFE) resulted in an additional 1,300 to 2,600
fatalities in 1993. While fatalities were declining in this period, most
committee members believe that they would have declined this much more had the
downweighting and downsizing not occurred. Two members of the committee dissent
from this view. They believe that the data does not support this conclusion, and
that the net effect on highway fatalities of the increases in fuel economy may
have been zero. David Greene, one of the authors of the dissent in the report,
may elaborate on that conclusion.
An additional impact, although one we
were unable to quantify, may have been restrictions on consumer choice.
Requiring automotive manufacturers to focus on fuel economy diverted their
resources from improving other attributes valued by consumers, such as
acceleration and carrying capacity.
Impact of Higher Standards
First let me note that the committee does not recommend whether or by
how much the government should raise standards. We believe that that is a
decision belonging to Congress, the President, and appointed officials because
it involves tradeoffs among factors very important to the people of this
country-the costs of driving, the environment, national security, consumer
choice, safety, and others. In so far as possible, the committee identifies
these tradeoffs, but a full analysis was not possible within the short time
allotted to this study.
The committee believes that it is incumbent on
decisionmakers to understand why they want to increase fuel economy and to
ensure that the costs of the increases are consistent with the motivation. The
two main factors the committee considered are oil imports and global climate
change. Analysts assign a wide variety of costs to these externalities. The
committee considered this range, and ultimately chose values which, in total,
are equivalent to about 30 cents/gallon of fuel. I mention this figure not
because the committee endorses it (indeed other analysts might chose values much
higher or lower), but because it helps to understand how hard one can push on
fuel economy.
With that as context, the committee concludes that
significant improvements in fuel economy are quite possible at reasonable cost.
A variety of technologies to improve fuel economy are available for cars and
light trucks. Many have been developed and are being implemented in Europe and
Japan where fuel prices are much higher than here. Variable Valve Lift and
Timing can reduce fuel consumption by 3-8%. Continuously variable transmissions
can achieve another 4-8%. Other technologies are under development and will be
available for wide scale use within 15 years. Fuel economy can be raised more
for heavier vehicles than for light ones, and the resulting fuel savings will be
much higher for the heavier vehicles also. For example, a midsize SUV might see
a 34% increase (from 18 to 28 miles per gallon). Over the lifetime of the
vehicle, these improvements would save nearly 2000 gallons, which would more
than pay for the incremental cost.
As with the current CAFE program,
raising standards will have other consequences as well, with safety again being
the most contentious. Any increase in fatalities will depend on how
manufacturers meet higher standards. While the technologies examined by the
committee generally appear to be more cost- effective than weight reduction,
CAFE standards as currently structured do not preclude any
methods. Thus some manufacturers might include some weight reduction, which the
majority of the committee believes would involve some safety consequences.
However, it is also possible that weight reductions could be concentrated in the
heavier vehicles. This would reduce the weight disparity in the fleet, which
would have beneficial consequences for safety. This could occur because the
greater risk for the occupants of the downsized vehicles would be more than
balanced by the lessened risk for other road users.
Again it should be
noted that increased fuel economy is not a high priority for most consumers. If
manufacturers have to meet higher standards, they will have to have to neglect
other attributes that consumers might find preferable.
Recommendations
on the Structure of the CAFE Program
First, I would like to point out
that there is a marked inconsistency between raising fuel economy standards
while keeping fuel taxes low. The committee certainly does not recommend raising
taxes to the level of European countries (or to any specific level for that
matter), but the members believe that efforts to raise fuel economy would work
much better if consumers had more motivation from higher fuel prices.
The committee recommends that a tradable credit program be part of any
regulatory program on fuel economy. Even if the current structure is maintained
and the standards not raised, the program can be made more efficient and
effective with tradable credits. All manufacturers would have incentive to raise
the economy of all their vehicles, and the results are likely to be less costly
than the current approach of treating each manufacture separately. Tradable
credits have worked well in reducing the costs of sulfur dioxide emissions from
coal-fired power plants, and the committee believes that will work as well on
fuel economy.
An attribute-based system should be considered for the
regulatory standard. The partially weight-based system we call "Enhanced CAFE"
is particularly intriguing. Lighter vehicles (up to 3500 or 4000 pounds) would
be on a standard inversely proportional to their weight. Heavier vehicles would
all have the same standard. This system would avoid any incentive for
manufacturers to reduce the weight of light vehicles, but would encourage
lightening the heavier vehicles, with advantages in safety as I noted earlier.
The committee recommends abolishing the foreign-domestic distinction.
Given the global nature of the auto industry, this distinction makes no sense
now.
The committee also recommends abolishing the credit for dual-fuel
vehicles. There may be valid policy reasons for encouraging alcohol fuels, but
CAFE is not a good way to do it. Owners of these vehicles essentially never buy
alcohol fuel because it is expensive and difficult to find, but the credit
lowers the fuel economy of the entire fleet.
The government should
continue cooperative programs with industry to improve fuel economy. The
Partnership for a New Generation Vehicle (PNGV) is the most prominent of these
programs.
Finally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
should update its analysis of the relationship between safety and fuel economy
improvements.
Thank you Mr. Chairman, that concludes my comments. My
colleagues and I would be happy to take any questions you may have.
LOAD-DATE: August 13, 2001