05-05-2001
POLITICS: Bush Stops Trying to Keep Things Simple
With the first 100 days hurdle behind them, President George W. Bush and
Vice President Dick Cheney last week finally began to get down to the
business of serious governing, as they issued major pronouncements on
energy policy, a missile defense shield, and Social Security. Before last
week, the Administration was exceedingly vulnerable to charges of running
a simplistic presidency: For every major problem, there was one simple
"solution."
But, it looks as if the Administration is finally beginning to flesh out
its policies on big issues. Cheney articulated the Administration's energy
policy on April 30. While environmentalists, liberals, and proponents of
energy conservation and alternative sources of energy production found
much to condemn, at least they could no longer condemn the White House for
failing to have mapped out a serious policy. Before Cheney's speech, the
only energy policy that the Administration had pushed was opening up the
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling.
Whether arctic drilling is advisable or not, it's hardly a comprehensive
energy policy. And the absence of such a policy had left Bush open to
charges of fiddling while Rome burned, or rather as energy shortages
spread. At least now, Republicans, who have clearly been struggling with
the President's handling of environmental issues, are no longer vulnerable
to the charge that their party lacks an energy policy. Still, it would
have been prudent for Cheney to make some window-dressing efforts in the
direction of conservation and higher fuel-efficiency standards. Many
experts say that setting onerous and often unrealistic standards can be
counterproductive. They also say that constantly forcing industry to
search for ways to conserve energy has proven time and again to be
effective.
Understandably, Cheney did not address the question of drilling off the
coast of Florida, which Gov. Jeb Bush vehemently opposes. Given that
Florida could effectively decide a very close presidential race again in
2004, this is a tough one for the President. Drilling off the coasts of
nearby Alabama and Mississippi is considerably less controversial.
The President's speech on Tuesday at the National Defense University was
another attempt to fatten up what was a very thin policy resume. Bush's
hope is that by drastically, and perhaps unilaterally, cutting the
American stockpile of nuclear weapons, he can persuade our European allies
and potential adversaries to not feel threatened by the construction of a
missile defense shield. It's too early to determine whether the minds of
foreign leaders have been substantially changed, but it's a good bet that
they haven't been. Our allies have all too often felt that American
consultation with them merely meant notifying them of our intentions the
hour, day, or week before our plans were publicly announced.
On a domestic political level, the politics of missile defense are
interesting. Polls show that most Americans have always assumed that we
had a sophisticated anti-missile defense system; thus polls consistently
show support for the construction of one. Over the past year, support for
a missile defense system has usually run between 45 percent and 55
percent, and opposition between 36 percent and 43 percent.
On Wednesday, Bush named a commission to study Social Security. While
Democrats are right that the President, in effect, has preordained the
outcome by appointing only commission members who favor his voluntary,
partial-privatization approach, at least this commission probably will
come up with a concrete proposal that someone, meaning the President, will
be accountable for. Again, one can quibble with whether Bush is taking the
right approach, but he's tackling a tough problem.
Bottom line: Whether or not you agree with the Bush Administration's
policies, it's clear that the Administration is finally sinking its teeth
into big issues. Until now, depending on one's view, the Bush
Administration has been either focused and disciplined, or simplistic and
shallow. Perhaps the Administration's initial avoidance of major policy
initiatives was the political equivalent of an educator "teaching to
the test." The Administration was so preoccupied with scoring well on
its first 100 days test that it delayed addressing many complex subjects
on which its final grade will depend. Energy, missile defense, and Social
Security are not issues that are easily controlled, but they will be a far
better test of how the Bush Administration is doing.
Charlie Cook
National Journal
