HEADLINE: Nation cheers cheap gas, but
oil dependency is troubling
BODY: All of those families who traded in gas-slurping SUVs for "econoboxes"
to soften the blow of high gasoline prices will be kicking themselves during
their holiday travels. Since September, the cost of filling up has plummeted,
with the per-gallon cost down nearly 30% to levels not seen since early 1999.
For everyone else, the sharp drop at the pump
is good news, at least in the short term. Two-car families will save about $ 500
a year if current prices hold.
Longer
term, however, there is a hidden cost. Whatever pressures might have been
building to revive interest in ending the nation's dependence on foreign oil
will fade, at the eventual cost of lives and dollars.
History provides ample evidence of the risks of relying
heavily on oil from troubled regions of the planet. The OPEC oil embargo of the
early 1970s hammered the U.S. economy, pushing inflation up and driving growth
down. That was when the U.S. imported just 35% of its oil.
Imports today comprise 50% of the oil consumed here. If
current trends continue, they will climb to 64% by 2020. Worse, nearly a quarter
of imports come from Persian Gulf nations exposed to anti-American terrorists.
Should terrorists ever succeed in cutting off supplies, the results would be
devastating. Even if they never do, the nation's need for oil entangles it in
problems it could otherwise avoid, often at the cost of American lives.
Turning this dependency around would be
complicated and difficult; more so when costs are low. The first hurdle: Serious
attempts to achieve energy independence are virtually non-existent. Most
proposals bandied about would be of little help. For instance:
* Conservation can help reduce demand but can't overcome
the energy needs of a growing economy. The federal fuel-economy standards first imposed in the 1970s helped boost
efficiency. Today's cars go more than 50% farther on a gallon of gas than those
on the road in '74. Even so, those gains were negated by the fact that the total
miles driven have more than doubled.
*
Opening new sources of domestic supply will do little to overcome the long-term
import trend. And as long as prices are low, getting oil out of U.S. soil is not
economical.
* Forcing higher prices on the
market would discourage use, but would punish low-income families the most.
To make a noticeable impact on the country's
dependence problem requires a more radical goal -- namely, the elimination of
the internal combustion engine. After all, cars and SUVs account for 43% of oil
consumed. Get rid of gasoline-powered cars, and you could almost entirely
eliminate oil imports.
As radical as that
sounds, progress is already underway. Cars are available that combine batteries
and traditional engines to push fuel economy to 70 miles per gallon. More
advanced fuel cells could do away with gasoline altogether, using hydrogen to
power fuel cells that crank the drive train. Even Ford's CEO, Bill Ford, is
predicting the demise of the internal combustion engine.
But progress has been slow. Ford says it plans a car in
2004. General Motors doesn't plan to start introducing fuel-cell cars until the
end of the decade. Even if that schedule is maintained -- and carmakers must
first find a way to produce a safe fuel-cell car with an affordable sticker
price -- it would take another decade before the nation's fleet is completely
converted.
This pace could be sped up, but
only if the nation decides to commit the resources to pull it off. That's
unlikely as long as energy prices remain close to a dollar a gallon.
Let's hope it won't take a real national
energy crisis to push newer, non-gasoline powered cars, into the car-buying
picture.Today's debate: Oil supplies As 1970s oil crisis shows, dealing with
Gulf countries carries risks.
GRAPHIC: GRAPHIC, b/w, Adrienne Lewis, USA TODAY, Source:U.S.
Department of Energy(Line graph)
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