"Freedom Car" is No Substitute for Oil Saving Measures that Can Start Now

When it comes to ending America's oil addiction, the hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle program touted by automakers and the Bush administration are no substitute for sensible improvements in fuel economy standards that move us toward freedom and independence from Middle East oil today. While fuel cells are an essential long-term strategy, actions we could take now using solutions that already exist would save far more oil over the next 20 years, and the benefits would kick in much faster.

Even under the ambitious fuel cell development timeline proposed by NRDC, it will be 20 to 30 years before fuel cells might replace enough regular cars to make a dent in U.S. oil demand. By comparison, we calculate that a 40 mpg fuel economy standard would save nearly 25 times more oil by 2020 than even the most optimistic fuel cell launch schedule.

And since the Bush fuel cell plan sets no deadline for automakers to produce a commercially viable fuel cell car in exchange for their subsidies, there's no telling when (or even if) the President's plan might deliver the oil savings result we need.

Meanwhile, the White House and Detroit oppose meaningful improvements in fuel economy rules to boost the performance in the 17 million new cars and light trucks we buy each year (at least 350 million vehicles by the time fuel cells are likely to turn up on the road in serious numbers). America simply can't afford to wait that long.

Fuel cells of the future are no substitute for fuel-economy measures today. An analysis by NRDC shows that oil savings from fuel-cell technology -- even on an optimistic timeline -- are dwarfed by the gains that can be achieved by raising gas mileage of conventional cars and trucks.

To illustrate the point, we compared the oil savings from our fuel-economy proposal (40 miles per gallon by 2012, and 55 miles per gallon by 2020) with projected savings from our fuel-cell target (100,000 fuel-cell vehicles per year by 2010 and 2.5 million per year in 2020) without any improvement in the fuel economy of conventional vehicles.

Results show that potential oil savings between now and 2020 from increased fuel economy are almost 25 times greater than the potential savings from fuel-cell vehicles. By 2030, when fuel cells are more prevalent, savings from fuel-economy improvements are still five times as great (see Figure 1, on reverse side).

America and the rest of the world can and should begin transitioning away from petroleum fuels. But it's a long process. Even with incentives proposed by NRDC and others, fuel-cell automobiles are unlikely to be widely available until at least 2020. And because hundreds of millions of conventional cars will still be around, we estimate it will be 10 years after that before fuel cells have a large impact on the nation's oil consumption.

Another problem is that the president's program lacks any mechanism to hold the automobile industry accountable for converting theoretical plans into real vehicles for real people. In fact, a draft report by the Bush administration's own Department of Energy concludes that this approach is bound to fail without sensible standards to ensure a transition away from current technology.

The administration shows no signs of heeding its own advice, at least not if that requires pursuing policies opposed by the auto industry. Indeed, the administration joined General Motors and DaimlerChrysler in a federal lawsuit against advanced technology vehicle requirements enacted by the state of California that would help put hybrids and fuel cells on the road sooner.

In addition, the administration's proposed budget would fund the fuel-cell initiative only by cutting back significantly on needed funds for core energy efficiency and renewable-energy technologies -- the very technologies needed to make near-term progress and to produce hydrogen cleanly, thus enabling fuel-cell vehicles to fulfill their long-term promise of clean energy.

Related NRDC Pages
Break the Chain: End Our Dependence on Oil
Dangerous Addiction (in-depth report)

last revised 5/8/03