September 19, 2002

Congress Votes to Increase US Dependence on Foreign Oil
Statement by David Friedman, Senior Analyst, UCS Clean Vehicles Program

Despite a last-minute effort by several Senators to improve fuel economy language in the Energy Bill, conferees from the House and Senate today voted to increase U.S. oil dependence. Several changes were made to the existing fuel economy program:

1. a requirement for light trucks to save 5 billion gallons of gasoline over the seven-year period from 2006 through 2012, and
   
   
2. an extension of the dual fuel loophole that allows a 22 mile-per-gallon Ford Ranger to count as a 36 mpg vehicle for CAFE purposes simply because it could use ethanol. This is despite the fact that the fuel is nearly impossible to find (only 121 stations carry E85 in the United States, with two stations on the East Coast and none on the West Coast).

What do these numbers really mean?

• The 5 billion gallon target could be achieved by increasing light truck fuel economy by less than 0.7 mpg in 2006, and doing nothing thereafter. That would be equivalent to a new truck standard of 21.4 mpg, compared to today's truck standard of 20.7 mpg and today's car standard of 27.5 mpg.
  
  
• This amounts to less than a drop in the bucket; the 5 billion gallons from 2006 to 2012 represents a tiny fraction of one percent (0.2 percent) of the gasoline cars and trucks will use over the same time period.
  
  
• The version passed today pushes back the dates by which the fuel must be saved by two years. The effect of this two-year delay on fuel savings is significant. By 2010, the time period of the original language, only 2.7 billion gallons will be saved, that is about half of what would be saved if the dates had remained 2004 to 2010
  
  
• The provisions passed by the conference committee will save only a little more than six days worth of oil over seven years. By 2010 we will have saved just over three day's worth of oil.
  
  
• And in reality, we will be INCREASING our oil dependence by 4 billion gallons of gasoline due to the extension of the dual fuel vehicle loophole. A DOT study shows the dual fuel loophole extension creates a 9 billion gallon loss from 2005 to 2008, so, by 2010, the net loss is about 6.3 billion gallons by 2010 -- the net loss is 4 billion gallons by 2012.

Finally, there has been a misleading assertion circulating that the 5 billion gallons equates to taking SUVs off the road for two years. In reality, it is equal to taking only one model year's worth of SUV sales off the road, not all SUVs as the statement implies. In other words, it is equivalent to taking only the new SUVs sold in 2001 off the road for 1.5 years (note: not two years). Put another way, it means taking a fraction of the vehicles on the road in 2001 off the road for 1.5 years, just as it means saving only a fraction of a percent of the gasoline our cars and trucks use.

Impact on rulemaking process: There is a requirement for an additional study by the National Academy of Sciences. This essentially calls for a repeat of the NAS study just conducted last year and could provide the auto industry with another opportunity to weaken recent NAS findings.

The conferees did not incorporate the laundry list of additional criteria that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) would have to consider when promulgating a rule. NHTSA already considers issues such as safety, jobs and impacts on the auto industry. Thus, the auto industry's effort to throw up additional roadblocks and litigious hooks to future increases in the fuel economy standards was thwarted.