The
fuel economy of today's cars and light trucks is at its lowest point
in 20 years. A combination of federal inaction on fuel economy
policy and the increased marketing of sport utility vehicles (SUVs)
and minivans as substitutes for passenger cars have led to this
point.
Our nation now faces a number of significant and growing problems
that could be addressed through a reasonable but aggressive approach
to fuel economy improvements. These problems include increased
consumer fuel costs; a growing dependence on imported oil; rising
emissions of greenhouse gases, toxics, and smog-forming pollutants;
and a fleet that is less safe than it would have been without the
massive infusion of today's light trucks.
This report represents a comprehensive assessment of both the
technical and economic potential of achieving a safe and
fuel-efficient fleet. The analysis is based on existing
technologies, many of which are on the road today. The research
combined conservative economic assessments with sound computer
models to investigate the impacts of significant fuel economy
improvements through the year 2020. The study shows that increasing
the fuel economy of the nation's fleet of new cars and light trucks
to 40 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2012 and then to 55 mpg by 2020 can
yield significant benefits to consumers, the economy, and the
environment without sacrificing passenger safety during a collision.
These findings indicate that, instead of looking for oil in
environmentally sensitive areas, the nation can tap the ingenuity of
Detroit's automobile industry to produce a fleet of safe and
fuel-efficient vehicles. For these benefits to be realized, the
federal government needs to act now to provide meaningful and
continuous increases in fuel economy standards.
Conclusions
This assessment of the impact of
fuel-efficient technologies indicates the following:
A fleet that relies on continuously evolving conventional
technologies could reach an average of more than 40 miles per
gallon, nearly a 75 percent increase compared with today's fleet.
Many of these gains could be made with technologies that are already
in consumers' hands. These improvements would lead to fuel cost
savings of $3,000 to more than $5,000 over the lifetime of a
vehicle. These savings would more than make up for the cost of the
fuel economy improvements. Under such a scenario, the typical family
car could reach over 45 mpg, while the cost of filling up an SUV
could be cut in half with a fuel economy of 40 mpg.
Relying on hybrid electric vehicle technologies could bring the
fleet to at least 55 miles per gallon. Such a fleet would more than
double current fuel economy levels and could save consumers between
$3,500 and over $6,500 in fuel costs. Hybrid electric vehicle
technologies could enable a family car to reach nearly 60 mpg, while
an SUV could cross the 50 mpg mark. A simultaneous move to fuel cell
vehicles could lead to a tripling of the fuel economy of family cars
and could significantly reduce fuel costs for all drivers.
Improvements in fuel economy can be made while maintaining or
improving current crash safety expectations. The majority of the
improvements in fuel economy can be achieved through use of
more-efficient powertrains, which will have no impact on vehicle
safety. Additional gains can be achieved through reducing the weight
of today's light trucks and altering their design to make them less
dangerous to the other vehicles on the road. This strategy can have
the dual effect of reducing the fatalities caused by these new
vehicles and improving their fuel economy.
Automobile companies can further improve their customers' safety
by implementing improved safety technologies that have yet to be
incorporated in vehicles, regardless of what path the companies
choose to pursue on fuel economy. Automakers have a multitude of
options for producing a safe and fuel-efficient fleet of cars and
light trucks to satisfy our driving needs. It is important that the
industry commits to making the safety of their consumers a key
priority in vehicle design.
There is no need to sacrifice air quality or human health to
achieve fuel economy improvements. The technologies relied upon in
this report can easily meet future emissions regulations and do not
have significant tailpipe toxic emissions associated with their use.
Alternatives that produce increased levels of toxic, particulate,
and nitrogen oxide emissions, such as diesel engines, can be avoided
while substantial fuel economy gains are achieved.
If the fleet reaches a fuel economy of 40 mpg by 2012, and then
55 mpg by 2020, our nation could significantly reduce its oil use.
Instead of allowing US passenger car and light-truck oil use to grow
unchecked, we can turn it back to today's levels by 2015 and then
keep it going down. This strategy would save nearly 5 million
barrels of oil a day after 18 years (2020) and 1.5 million barrels
per day after only eight years (2010).
Significant fuel economy improvements would dwarf supplies
obtained from proposed expansion into environmentally sensitive
areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. In 18 years the
United States will have saved more than four times the oil available
in the Arctic Refuge at today's oil prices. In that same year, we
would save more than 10 times what the Arctic would be producing
each day if development were begun there today.
Fuel savings would be accompanied by billions of dollars in
savings each year through reduced fuel costs, along with the
creation of a significant number of new jobs. By 2010, consumers
could be saving $9.8 billion per year. This figure would rise to
over $28 billion by 2020. These savings, along with the investments
automobile manufacturers would make to improve fuel economy, could
be returned to the nation's economy, with a resulting increase of
over 40,000 jobs in the automobile industry by 2010, ultimately
reaching over 100,000 new automobile industry jobs by 2020.
The environmental impact of our driving habits can be
significantly reduced by increasing new-passenger-vehicle fuel
economy to 40 mpg by 2012 and to 55 mpg by 2020. By 2010, the
greenhouse-gas emissions from cars and light trucks could be reduced
by 273 million tons. In the same time frame, producing less gasoline
would mean that nearly 150 million pounds of toxic emissions and 320
million pounds of smog-forming pollutants would never reach our
lungs. By 2020, vehicle pollution could be reduced by 888 million
tons of greenhouse-gas emissions, 481 million pounds of toxic
emissions, and 1,039 million pounds of smog-forming pollutants.
Recommendations: Reinvesting in Fuel Economy
In the
early 1970s, the United States experienced an energy crisis that
drove up gasoline prices and forced consumers to wait in long lines
to fill their tanks and empty their pockets. The government
responded by investing in fuel economy improvements and creating the
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards that doubled the
passenger vehicle fuel economy over a period of 10 years but
provided for no increases after 1985.
After 15 years of stagnant fuel economy standards, significant
pressure from many stakeholders has prompted the US government to
investigate a reinvestment in fuel economy policy. Based on the
findings of this study, UCS recommends that the US government and
the automobile industry responsible for supplying our passenger
vehicles take the following steps:
- Raise the CAFE standards for light-duty trucks to that of
passenger cars in the near term. Closing the "light-truck
loophole" is a key first step in improving fuel economy.
- By 2012, raise the CAFE standards for the combined fleet of
cars and light trucks to 40 mpg. Eliminating the separation
between cars and light trucks will give automakers the flexibility
to meet the standards in the manner that suits them best.
- By 2020, raise the CAFE standards to 55 mpg. Several years
earlier, studies should be commissioned on the potential for
increased reliance on hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell
vehicles to achieve even higher fuel economy levels by 2030 and
beyond.
- In all years, through government standards or automaker
initiative, place a greater emphasis on bringing improved safety
technologies to the new-vehicle market. With today's engineering
practices and technologies, there is no reason that consumers
should have to sacrifice safety to gain improved fuel economy; the
potential even exists to provide simultaneous improvements in
both.
- The US government can lend additional support to ensure that
fuel-efficient vehicles come to market by funding research and
development of advanced technologies and by creating incentives
tied to fuel economy improvements.