Racial Resentment and Public Opinion on the Death Penalty

Frank R. Baumgartner, Ryan Brooks, Connor Choate, Elizabeth Seagroves, and Allen Wilson

Cambridge University Press

Elements Series in Race and Ethnic Politics

(under advanced contract; full manuscript submitted September 1, 2026, under review).

Racial disparities have been documented in many aspects of the death penalty throughout the US. We document the powerful roles of race and racial resentment in explaining who supports and who opposes capital punishment. We review the literature on support for the death penalty, add new analyses at the individual level, and show the consistent and substantial impact of race and racial resentment, which are considerably more important than variables sometimes thought to drive support for the policy, such as religious tradition, ideological orientation, or residing in the South. We also develop a set of yearly state-level estimates of public opinion on the death penalty and racial resentment. Both nationally and at the state level, public opinion, racial resentment, and death sentencing are tightly connected. Thus, we show a powerful level of responsiveness to public opinion, but also that this opinion is tainted by racial animosity toward African-Americans.

This is a place-holder site for our book, which is currently under contract and which we submitted for review on September 1, 2026. Depending on the reviews and the revisions required, we expect to see publication in 2027.

This site will be under construction during that time...

Click here to read the manuscript as submitted.

Replication data for each Figure in the Element

• Figure 1, extended back to 1936 (xlsx).
• Figure 2 (xlsx).
• Figure 3 (xlsx).

Appendices.

• Appendix A on the dyad-ratios algorithm. (Frank Baumgartner)
• Appendix B on the MRP models. (Connor Choate)
• Appendix C on the ANES results. (Allen Wilson)
• Appendix D on the GSS and CMPS analyses. (Ryan Brooks)
• Appendix E on state comparisons. (Frank Baumgartner)

Supplemental information concerning the dyad ratios algorithm used in Section 2 to calculate the index of public opinion at the national level.

• Spreadsheet with information on all 629 public opinion questions used in the generation of the estimate.
• Wclac log file showing diagnostics for creation of the main opinion index.
• Wclac log file showing diagnostics for creation of the "murder" question index.
• Wclac log file showing diagnostics for creation of the "life" question index.
• Wclac log file showing diagnostics for creation of the ANES index.
• Wclac log file showing diagnostics for creation of the GSS index.

(Last updated, September 2, 2026)